2022 Ryanair Chase

[RufusFlynn]

Such a tough race and usually favours betting later because finding the winner of the Ryanair is a bit like finding the best horse that won't win the QMCC, or the best horse that won't win the Gold Cup.

Trainers like Willie Mullins have such an embarrassment of riches, he can target the Ryanair with horses that would be competitive in both the above, but probably couldn't win it.

My approach with the Ryanair revolves around this question - would or could the horse in question win, or at least be in the mix in a QMCC or Gold Cup?

Heavily open to interpretation, but I think the answer to the above is a firm yes for 8 out of the last 10 winners of the Ryanair. It filters out all the good but not potential great horses. Protektorat looks interesting, but when I ask myself the above question, its a firm resounding no, so I move on. Loads like this and its helps put lines through horses you'd otherwise be lured into backing.

Good summarisation Charlie.I think the Ryanair definitely still has the feeling of a consolation race despite it being a Grade 1. I wouldn't turn my nose up at having a horse go and win it but it does tend to feature the horses that aren't quite good enough to win either the GC or QMCC which seems to be why predicting which horses end up here is so difficult as often the are either upped/dropped in trip.

It's not very often horses are seemingly targeted at it from the start of the season - even after Allaho's win last year he's not guaranteed to return to defend his crown and there haven't been many repeat winners?

I tend to shortlist horses that have Festival experience without winning e.g Tornado Flyer last year who had ran in the Marsh & the Bumper: - Easy Game is on my shortlist for this year but will hold off backing.

I also think Shan Blue fits this mould for Skelton but think they will try and campaign him over further, although don't seem him being up to the Gold Cup myself.

[opatcho]

My approach with the Ryanair revolves around this question - would or could the horse in question win, or at least be in the mix in a QMCC or Gold Cup?

This! … certainly narrows down the field to 1-2

[Silverbirch]

This! … certainly narrows down the field to 1-2

I do agree but....... Allaho.
Would he be in contention in either?!

[opatcho]

I do agree but....... Allaho.
Would he be in contention in either?!

Yes - last year, yes

This year, well.... not many winners have gone back to the Ryanair after winning it. UDS, tried...
Its not bullet proof, but its certainly a good start

[Lobos]

I do agree but....... Allaho.
Would he be in contention in either?!

Depends a lot on what Mullins other CC/GC runners do this season. He's likely to be entered for everything going. Kim Bailey commented that the Ryanair was one of the fastest run races he's ever seen. Allaho just burnt everyone off. Would he have won last season's CC.......... quite possibly.

[Hurricane fly]

I thought Allaho was pretty obvious last season, he showed in the RSA that he didn't quite stay the trip so the extra 2f wouldn't suit. This years RSA wasn't up to the same level so nobody stuck out to me as a potential Ryanair horse.

Again with the Arkle nobody got near Shishkin (Or Energumene in Ireland) so nobody stands out. Possibly Franco de Port? Or Allmankind.

This would have me looking at last years horses in open company for the first time. Mister Fisher? Fakir? They will
be 8 and 7, the rest will be hitting double digits.

Other than that it's up to HDB to throw another Cheveley Park horse at it in APT or Envoi, but I imagine they would rather two in the GC with Allaho a standout favourite here

[ToniC]

If Allaho runs anywhere other than the Ryanair I’ll literally eat my own trousers. If there was going to be a 2 mile experiment any slim chance he had of lining to in the champion Chase died in punchestown

[charlie]

I do agree but....... Allaho.
Would he be in contention in either?!

Absolutely, he's the perfect example of a horse that probably wouldn't win the QMCC or a GC which makes him a perfect horse here.

I'd be staggered if he ended up anywhere else, it would't make any sense.

[Lobos]

If Allaho runs anywhere other than the Ryanair I’ll literally eat my own trousers. If there was going to be a 2 mile experiment any slim chance he had of lining to in the champion Chase died in punchestown

I hope you are a short guy as less to eat Punchestown was at the end of a long old season......beware the results there. I'm not convinced the 2 mile experiment is over just yet. His jumping and love of Cheltenham could get any 2 miler in problems. Chacun doesn't like the hill and Energumene needs soft/further. Its not over until it's over.

[Kautostar]

I hope you are a short guy as less to eat Punchestown was at the end of a long old season......beware the results there. I'm not convinced the 2 mile experiment is over just yet. His jumping and love of Cheltenham could get any 2 miler in problems. Chacun doesn't like the hill and Energumene needs soft/further. Its not over until it's over.

I can’t see it happening unless both cps and energumene miss the festival. There’s nothing in Ireland that will beat either of them unless Willie brings one to England prior to Cheltenham and will most likely be campaigned apart racking up wins so no need to look for substitutes.

[opatcho]

I hope you are a short guy as less to eat Punchestown was at the end of a long old season......beware the results there. I'm not convinced the 2 mile experiment is over just yet. His jumping and love of Cheltenham could get any 2 miler in problems. Chacun doesn't like the hill and Energumene needs soft/further. Its not over until it's over.

Interesting points.. and something to thing about

I'm throwing this out there... I see Allaho in the same light as Vautour in terms of being 'stuck' between 2 and 3 miles.
Vautour, supreme and Marsh winning horse wasnt quick enough later on over fences, and the 3 mile experiment didnt land (although, he only attempted it once)
Allaho has ran over the AB and RSA trips, and faces a similar situation.

Can Allaho, an ex-AB, ex-RSA horse, really do some damage in a Queen Mother, batch on the old course? Horses tend to slow down as they get older.

Despite this.... I like this "Allaho for the QM" discussion
I dont think Allaho will get the GC distance, especially with his front running tactics. No chance.

I agree with Energumene, I think he'll run in the Ryanair
I also think Envoi Allen will be running in the Ryanair

Natural fit for Allaho will be the Ryanair, its not like Mullins is struggling for runners in the QM with Chacun and Energumene. Additional, he's success rate in it is terrible.

Headache. But agree. Not to be discounted

[Lobos]

I can’t see it happening unless both cps and energumene miss the festival. There’s nothing in Ireland that will beat either of them unless Willie brings one to England prior to Cheltenham and will most likely be campaigned apart racking up wins so no need to look for substitutes.

We'll see. Let it all unfold.

[ToniC]

I hope you are a short guy as less to eat Punchestown was at the end of a long old season......beware the results there. I'm not convinced the 2 mile experiment is over just yet. His jumping and love of Cheltenham could get any 2 miler in problems. Chacun doesn't like the hill and Energumene needs soft/further. Its not over until it's over.

Mullins didn’t become the trainer he is by not running horses in the races they have the best chance of winning, IMO. Allahos Ryanair performance was absolutely savage, I just can’t see them changing a winning recipe like that to be honest

[Craigy14]

One thing to note is most have said that Allaho barely wins this side of the year so when is this 2m plan going to continue to prove he’s a 2 miler? The DRF a month before the festival?

I think it’s 99% he’ll run here unless something happens to the other 2 imo. More likely see him try 3m before 2m again I’d say.

Also using Punchestown form as backing up his excuse would the same not be said of CPS? Both ran 5 times Allaho is 2 years younger and was smashed, experiment over imo.

[Lobos]

Mullins didn’t become the trainer he is by not running horses in the races they have the best chance of winning, IMO. Allahos Ryanair performance was absolutely savage, I just can’t see them changing a winning recipe like that to be honest

9/2 fav says you are right. I just can't wait until Mullins 3 start out. Lots of twists and turns yet you can guarantee that.