2022 Ryanair Chase

[charlie]

Well you'd have done your money on the day of the week that they last met, when Conflated beat him

Just reading Gordon saying he wants Conflated in the Gold Cup despite what owner said

I like Janidil, and have the without bets in place like most do at 5/1.... in fact I have some 8/1 about it that most don't but I think Conflated would be a better bet at those prices.... shame he was only 3/1 NRNB in the same market.

Janidil v Conflated, let's dance....

It's interesting at 10/1 v 9/1. I suppose you could back both at those types of prices, especially NRNB.

Yes, Conflated beat Janidil over 3m LTO, but back over 2m4f Janidil crushed Conflated 18L, and I just don't trust LTO as a true reflection of Conflated's ability.

Connections must feel the same way because the O'leary's love a 3 mile chaser and if they felt Conflated was a 166+ proper Irish Gold Cup winner then we'd be discussing him in the Gold Cup thread, and not here (your favourite race ). Even entertaining here let alone saying its more likely says an awful lot about how they view his ability doesn't it? I suppose winning their own race is a reason.

Conflated has had loads of opportunities to dine at the top table, but he rarely even grabs a napkin. His aggregate losing distance in Grade 1's is 39L and he's been battered over fences by Janidil (18L), Monkfish (61L), Darver Star (17L) - these aren't small defeats and it just doesn't make for good reading

Perhaps the step up to 3m was the making of him, but with a view to this where does that leave backers? It feels like he'll be completely outpaced by Allaho and being left with way too much to do no? People will say 'yeh he'll stay on really strongly' and that might be true but if Allaho has sprung he won't catch him.

Conflated could be a mid 160's chaser, I just don't think he's that good. Barring LTO, the only time you see a 1 next to his name is when he's beating 130's chasers and like I said, I'd need to see him do it again before thinking he's actually that good.

Janidil accounted for Conflated with ease at Fairyhouse beating him 17L over this trip, but IMO, Janidil is simply more consistent, performing at 160+ which is something Conflated has never done before.

Janidil feels less exposed, has a clear target, probably just doesn't want 3m but absolutely has the speed to keep tabs with Allaho, and I think Janidil's second to Allaho in the John Durkin is one of, if not the best piece of form out there over this trip. Janidil has the added advantage of having been to Cheltenham before, and I don't think he was given too tough a time of it LTO.

[Quevega]

Janidil v Conflated, let's dance....

It's interesting at 10/1 v 9/1. I suppose you could back both at those types of prices, especially NRNB.

Yes, Conflated beat Janidil over 3m LTO, but back over 2m4f Janidil crushed Conflated 18L, and I just don't trust LTO as a true reflection of Conflated's ability.

Connections must feel the same way because the O'leary's love a 3 mile chaser and if they felt Conflated was a 166+ proper Irish Gold Cup winner then we'd be discussing him in the Gold Cup thread, and not here (your favourite race ). Even entertaining here let alone saying its more likely says an awful lot about how they view his ability doesn't it? I suppose winning their own race is a reason.

Conflated has had loads of opportunities to dine at the top table, but he rarely even grabs a napkin. His aggregate losing distance in Grade 1's is 39L and he's been battered over fences by Janidil (18L), Monkfish (61L), Darver Star (17L) - these aren't small defeats and it just doesn't make for good reading

Perhaps the step up to 3m was the making of him, but with a view to this where does that leave backers? It feels like he'll be completely outpaced by Allaho and being left with way too much to do no? People will say 'yeh he'll stay on really strongly' and that might be true but if Allaho has sprung he won't catch him.

Conflated could be a mid 160's chaser, I just don't think he's that good. Barring LTO, the only time you see a 1 next to his name is when he's beating 130's chasers and like I said, I'd need to see him do it again before thinking he's actually that good.

Janidil accounted for Conflated with ease at Fairyhouse beating him 17L over this trip, but IMO, Janidil is simply more consistent, performing at 160+ which is something Conflated has never done before.

Janidil feels less exposed, has a clear target, probably just doesn't want 3m but absolutely has the speed to keep tabs with Allaho, and I think Janidil's second to Allaho in the John Durkin is one of, if not the best piece of form out there over this trip. Janidil has the added advantage of having been to Cheltenham before, and I don't think he was given too tough a time of it LTO.

The O'Leary's campaign a lot of there staying chasers for the valuable handicaps, that they can monopolise on occasions.
Conflated is definitely one of these.
Looks like the Kerry National was the early season target but he unseated early.
The Irish Gold cup doesn't look like a fluke to me, or at least the form looks solid.
They'd be mental to run in the Ryanair, I agree, and the main reason would be to have a competitive runner in their own race.
He deserves a chance at the Gold cup and I hope Gordon gets his way.

[FinalFurlong91]

Will conflateds jumping hold up with the pace allaho is going to set?

Id be dubious about it personally

[charlie]

Will conflateds jumping hold up with the pace allaho is going to set?

Id be dubious about it personally

Yeh good point

[FinalFurlong91]

Yeh good point

I think that's why Gordon wants to run him in the gold cup

Whereas the owner probably wants to try and get some of his prize money back lol

[Carnage at Taunton]

Will conflateds jumping hold up with the pace allaho is going to set?

Id be dubious about it personally

Yep me too. I could see him struggling, much like many last year.

[Geegees]

Eldorado Allen Not to be supplemented for the GC

looks like a few taking aim at allaho now

[Magpie]

Maybe, though I think by the time EA is staying on late, Allaho may be having a well deserved drink in the parade ring

[Saxon Warrior]

I have been through the 10-Year Trends for the RYANAIR CHASE to assess how the current years horses RPRs during the season, compare to the last 10 winners and placed horses, as they lined up for their Ryanair's.

Link to my Diary to see how they compare.

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-...875#post362875

[willpaterson]

I would be a lot more wary of Eld Allen.
I think they know he’s not a Gold Cup horse and they do now know they can be a lot more positive with him over the Ryanair distance .
I expect him to be ridden very prominently and unlike many last year will not be left behind by Allaho.
I think he’s a major threat and not to be underestimated

I know you posted this over a week back, but I’m with you on this one and have just played him each way in the without Allaho market.

I think a fair few ahead in the market won’t be entered on the day, so it’s likely to shorten and I just have a weird hunch that he could run a decent effort behind.

I feel he has a somewhat likeable profile, happy to be ridden for the placings as he had been last year on a couple times. I normally crab UK form in the races he has ran in but I’m just struggling to be negative on him.

Likely have egg on my face though with this one by about two minutes into the Ryanair as he falls out the back of the TV.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I know you posted this over a week back, but I’m with you on this one and have just played him each way in the without Allaho market.

I think a fair few ahead in the market won’t be entered on the day, so it’s likely to shorten and I just have a weird hunch that he could run a decent effort behind.

I feel he has a somewhat likeable profile, happy to be ridden for the placings as he had been last year on a couple times. I normally crab UK form in the races he has ran in but I’m just struggling to be negative on him.

Likely have egg on my face though with this one by about two minutes into the Ryanair as he falls out the back of the TV.

He won’t be falling out the back of the TV, if he performs as he did at Newbury. Jumped and travelled well.
He’s now proved a strong stayer at this distance.

[charlie]

He won’t be falling out the back of the TV, if he performs as he did at Newbury. Jumped and travelled well.
He’s now proved a strong stayer at this distance.

The step up to 3m brought about improvement, but his 2m4f form of 532 is plain. Lost 17L to Protektorat, 6L to First Flow and 2L to Mister Fisher. He’d want to be beating those sorts to be laying a glove on Allaho over this trip. Think they’re foolish taking on Allaho when the GC looks as open as it does and he’s just posted a career best over 3m, why not have a go at the GC and come back here next year if he doesn’t stay

[Carnage at Taunton]

Mr Fisher is a different horse when he puts it all together in the jumping dept.
Eld Allen is improved because they are being more prominent with him, and his last two performances reflect that.
As said before, I think they know he’s not a gold cup horse.
I really think he’s a player in this.

[Benjy23]

The step up to 3m brought about improvement, but his 2m4f form of 532 is plain. Lost 17L to Protektorat, 6L to First Flow and 2L to Mister Fisher. He’d want to be beating those sorts to be laying a glove on Allaho over this trip. Think they’re foolish taking on Allaho when the GC looks as open as it does and he’s just posted a career best over 3m, why not have a go at the GC and come back here next year if he doesn’t stay

Think they would've done this if he was entered to be honest.

Seem to be doing the opposite now with a Ryanair this year with GC next year plan.

Couldn't be confident personally, even in the w/o market doe the Ryanair. Good little contest that though

[Rooster Booster]

The step up to 3m brought about improvement, but his 2m4f form of 532 is plain. Lost 17L to Protektorat, 6L to First Flow and 2L to Mister Fisher. He’d want to be beating those sorts to be laying a glove on Allaho over this trip. Think they’re foolish taking on Allaho when the GC looks as open as it does and he’s just posted a career best over 3m, why not have a go at the GC and come back here next year if he doesn’t stay

Actually all the last race showed was that he had maintained the steady rate of improvement he was already making this season ....rpr 159, 161, 164 and 168 lto. If you drew a trend line using the first three numbers and dotted line predicting the fourth you’d land somewhere very close to 168 so what we have is an improving horse that has maintained the already improving profile over more than one trip and there is a strong likelihood he would have posted a 168 lto travelling and jumping the way he did over a shorter trip than 3 miles