2022 Ryanair Chase

[Istabraq]

We should probably do some sort of 'take on that banker' thread.

And a poll ?
Q will be delighted…

[willpaterson]

Mister Fisher.....if the field is less than 10 runners and he doesn’t make a jarring mistake he will run well imo but he gets claustrophobic and often puts in at least one shuddering error. Last years Ryanair I thought he was running a proper race then made a complete mess of the water jump of all obstacles and it quickly unravelled but until that point he looked to be one of just a few that could handle the pace Allaho was setting. If Allaho is in similar form to last year then only a few will be quick enough to travel and jump and this is where I’d worry about janidil (even though I have backed him). SC should handle it ok but a lot of good horses were beaten from a win perspective after just a few fences.

I didn’t put Mister Fisher on my shortlist for this year, the quite high number of failed runs & the performances coming often in UK small fields were the main negatives I had - I know it gets mentioned often, but I find it hard to like horses whose better ratings come in these small field UK grade 2/3 races.

I have Saint Calvados on the edge of my shortlist, I know in the King George the going for home early set him up to fail somewhat , but I am wondering whether the defeat here two years ago to Min, took things out of him as he has had those two long breaks from racing. Might be one that I consider backing small stakes closer to the day, especially if his price drifts.

[FinalFurlong91]

Although I agree that Allaho looks nailed on to win this again, it doesn’t mean he’s an automated banker

don’t think many people thought UDS would get beaten ok his second Ryanair but he was

True

But UDS barely stayed 2m4f in a championship race and was definitely at his best over 2 miles

This is allahos optimal trip and track and hes already beaten almost all of the likely runners easily

Nothing is ever a 100% certainty, especially over fences, they are animals not robots after all

But there's no other way to put it, if allaho runs anywhere near his best he will win

the only horse in training capable of beating him at his best over this C&D is probably shiskin

[charlie]

And a poll ?
Q will be delighted…

hahaha Q be fuming.

[Splinterboy82]

Scratched Tues 08/02/22:

Blackbow
Cilaos Emery
Defi du Seuil
Funambule Sivola
Fusil Raffles
Midnight Shadow
Rouge Vif
Samcro
Simply The Betts
Put The Kettle On

[Birds Nest]

Scratched Tues 08/02/22:

Blackbow
Cilaos Emery
Defi du Seuil
Funambule Sivola
Fusil Raffles
Midnight Shadow
Rouge Vif
Samcro
Simply The Betts
Put The Kettle On

Makes the 20s plate w/o nrnb look more attractive for fusils now..

[Kevloaf]

BetVictor at 25/1 NRNB for Conflated after that romp.

Obviously the Gold Cup is where he's long odds on to end up, but you never know.

Guarantee a return though in March with this bet


He'd go off 2nd fav, surely.

G.Elliott - "Conflated has the option of the Ryanair and the Gold Cup so we won't rule anything in or out at this stage and we'll see what happens.

Looks a bit better than it did at the time....


Still 12/1 NRNB perfectly fair... would be 2nd fav?

[Evesham Road]

G.Elliott - "Conflated has the option of the Ryanair and the Gold Cup so we won't rule anything in or out at this stage and we'll see what happens.

Looks a bit better than it did at the time....


Still 12/1 NRNB perfectly fair... would be 2nd fav?

And diminishes the value of Janidil w/o Allaho?

[Kevloaf]

Found myself looking at Eldorado Allen NRNB for this at 16/1 (18/1 with Ladbrokes boost)

I do think they'll probably supplement for the GC, but not an issue NRNB.

Tizzard went out of his way to mention Cue Card winning the Ryanair and winning any race at Cheltenham being worth it.

I liked his performance yesterday, and having backed him e/w in the Arkle last year it's not lost on me how well he finished that race and it's decent enough festival form without being exceptional.

However on balance, he's also been held this season around the intermediate trip by horses that wouldn't interest me hugely as standouts for this race E/W.... Like Mister Fisher who you can get 14/1 about... or First Flow and Funambule Sivola. He beat Hitman 1l but again, wouldn't think Hitman was a standout place chance in this race.

It's not that I don't think Mister Fisher can place, it's just he's one of a mass of horses that I don't think can beat Allaho, but could place and me not be surprised. It's just, did he perform yesterday at a higher level than he has previously? Maybe, maybe not.

Talked myself out of the bet

[Lostinleith]

I'm a learner here, so this may be one for the 'stupid questions' thread, but I will ask anyway! First Flow is best price 33s for the Champion Chase. Connections apparently had a debate about moving up in trip, but it worked and the 2nd and 3rd have franked the form. He can't really be a contender for the CC, so surely a contender at a price here e/w at least?

[Lostinleith]

I'm a learner here, so this may be one for the 'stupid questions' thread, but I will ask anyway! First Flow is best price 33s for the Champion Chase. Connections apparently had a debate about moving up in trip, but it worked and the 2nd and 3rd have franked the form. He can't really be a contender for the CC, so surely a contender at a price here e/w at least?

Sorry at the risk of stating the obvious I know he would need to be supplemented

[Istabraq]

Sorry at the risk of stating the obvious I know he would need to be supplemented

The supplement fee is 30,000 pounds, Allaho looks near unbeatable and he would have to fill that runner up spot to make it financially worthwhile.
Not impossible but I'd be surprised if they were to supplement...

[FinalFurlong91]

Is first flow even fit?

Was surprised he was taken out of the ascot chase

[Rooster Booster]

Found myself looking at Eldorado Allen NRNB for this at 16/1 (18/1 with Ladbrokes boost)

I do think they'll probably supplement for the GC, but not an issue NRNB.

Tizzard went out of his way to mention Cue Card winning the Ryanair and winning any race at Cheltenham being worth it.

I liked his performance yesterday, and having backed him e/w in the Arkle last year it's not lost on me how well he finished that race and it's decent enough festival form without being exceptional.

However on balance, he's also been held this season around the intermediate trip by horses that wouldn't interest me hugely as standouts for this race E/W.... Like Mister Fisher who you can get 14/1 about... or First Flow and Funambule Sivola. He beat Hitman 1l but again, wouldn't think Hitman was a standout place chance in this race.

It's not that I don't think Mister Fisher can place, it's just he's one of a mass of horses that I don't think can beat Allaho, but could place and me not be surprised. It's just, did he perform yesterday at a higher level than he has previously? Maybe, maybe not.

Talked myself out of the bet

Currently there is a reasonable amount at 15 on the exchange without Allaho market if that is of interest. I’m pretty sure this is where he is heading and if he does he is sure to be a lot shorter than that without Allaho on the day especially as GE has indicated he is favouring conflated for the GC. For me he is one of the few horses that has continued to run respectably for the yard through their ups and downs (mostly downs) recently. I think the Ryanair will be run to suit and his jumping is usually sound and he should have enough pace not to get detached like most did last year.

Also shameless plug for Protektorat who has beaten him further than any other horse in a chase including Shishkin.

[Kevloaf]

Looks like someone snaffled that before I got the chance