2022 Ryanair Chase

[FinalFurlong91]

At longer odds, something like The Big Getaway or Hitman, perhaps? Both available at 50-1. Shan Blue at 28-1? If Envoi comes here, it is a no brainier though, right?

I liked hitman as a lively outsider but Nicholls had him fit for his reappearance and he just didn't have enough to win

[RufusFlynn]

Does Chatham Street Lad come into it if he ends up here?
Has good form at the course. Yes, probably a level below top class but otherwise exactly the type of horse that could run into a place?

[Spectre]

I think the Ryanair is very much a specialist race. You need to be able to jump and travel just as well as a Champion Chase and still have the stamina to see it out. CSL has really good course form, but there will be a few more of his type too that might be a little bit better.

I think the problem is since his win in the Caspian Caviar he's just been a badly handicapped horse that's a level and a half behind Grade 1. At 50/1 with cash out there's no harm in a punt I guess, but I'd imagine they'll e doing everything they can to get his mark down so he can win a decent handicap pot again at some point in the future.

[charlie]

I think the Ryanair is very much a specialist race. You need to be able to jump and travel just as well as a Champion Chase and still have the stamina to see it out. CSL has really good course form, but there will be a few more of his type too that might be a little bit better.

I think the problem is since his win in the Caspian Caviar he's just been a badly handicapped horse that's a level and a half behind Grade 1. At 50/1 with cash out there's no harm in a punt I guess, but I'd imagine they'll e doing everything they can to get his mark down so he can win a decent handicap pot again at some point in the future.

Agree 100% Spectre. For me, finding the Ryanair winner revolves around this question:

'would or could the horse in question win, or at least be very competitive in a QMCC and/or Gold Cup?'

Heavily open to interpretation, but by my reckoning 8 out of the last 10 winners are a 'yes' to the above.

I like this approach. Genuine QMCC and Gold Cup contenders are easier to identify than winners of this. Their G1 credentials are often well advertised, and the ability of their competitors is too.

There are far less places to hide over 2m and 3m2f, and the Ryanair is far more tricky IMO because it's less about clear distinctions between a G1 animal and inferior horses, and far more deciphering degrees of 'very good'. Weighing up degrees of 'very good' is obviously tricky, which is why I find contextualising ability in relation to the QMCC and/or GC so valuable.

Allaho would not look out of place in a QMCC, but IMO, wouldn't have the gears or kick to finish well enough over 2 miles. Allaho probably wouldn't look out of place in a Gold Cup, for a long long way. He's the perfect horse for this race and we've seen that.

Top of the market is a mess here:

Allaho @ 7/2
Envoi Allen @ 7/1
Fakir @ 10/1
Shishkin @ 10/1
Energumene @ 12/1
Janadil @ 16/1

Shishkin obviously won't go and IMO it's unlikely Willie will fire more than two bullets if Allaho remains sound. In the same ownership as Allaho, and as a future stayer IMO, Envoi Allen is likely to take on 3 miles. I don't think its unrealistic even now to interpret the race this way. As much as I want Fakir to be a Gold Cup horse, he's clearly the bet here isn't he?

[darlojim]

Good write up Charlie and agree with practically all of that.

Would you not fancy Energumene if he were to head here? IF and it's a big if, Mullins' sends Energumene to the Tingle Creek to go against Shishkin and is no match for him, then surely he ends up here?

I think the 12/1 about him is a good bet for now as it's unlikely that will ever get any bigger throughout the early part of the season.

[charlie]

Good write up Charlie and agree with practically all of that.

Would you not fancy Energumene if he were to head here? IF and it's a big if, Mullins' sends Energumene to the Tingle Creek to go against Shishkin and is no match for him, then surely he ends up here?

I think the 12/1 about him is a good bet for now as it's unlikely that will ever get any bigger throughout the early part of the season.

Cheers pal. Energumene is all the rage as a top 2 miler at Closutton so until I see or hear anything different, all roads leads QMCC.

I could be wrong and the pieces may fall that way, but I think it pays to take views like this on Willies because he normally has 2-3 in the top 6-7 of the betting and we know they won't all go.

[riccirich]

I was thinking about politologue for this race after watching him in the schloer, seems to be down the pecking order now in the 2m division but still showed a lot of enthusiasm in finishing a good second.

Has ran ran over this trip a few times and with his age he might even be a bit better over this trip nowadays if they gave him another crack at it.

If next years race is anything like this years was you would think that he would be one that could lay up with allaho too with his jumping and 2m speed.

Not one i'd be in a rush to back and only an outside chance of him coming here but would be interested to see what he's priced at if he is added to the market at some point.

[Spectre]

I'd love to see Energumene run in this, because I think he's going to be a bit of a 'Min', or even an Un des Sceaux. Capable of winning good graded 2 mile chases, but found out in the very best company. Both Min and Un des Sceaux both needed the mid-trip to win their Championship races.

If Willie sticks to two miles he'll be chasing Shishkin's backside all over the place, but if he steps up to two and a half he could dominate the division. I suspect though he'll do exactly as he did with Min and UdS and he'll be the bridesmaid until he finally stops being stubborn in a couple of years time.

[archie]

If we're all agreed that this is a specialist's race then surely we're all agreed that it's pointless opposing last season's facile winner.

[Spectre]

If we're all agreed that this is a specialist's race then surely we're all agreed that it's pointless opposing last season's facile winner.

Not at all. I think both Energumene and Envoi Allen would be interesting. I doubt anything else has sufficient class. The trouble is it looks as though the two of them will go elsewhere.

I also wonder whether Allaho can repeat what he did in the manner that he did it. It's rare for horses to repeat what he did, and I can't think of any examples in Championship races in many years.

[darlojim]

Not at all. I think both Energumene and Envoi Allen would be interesting. .

They're the only 2 who i could see potentially challenging Allaho in this race.

[MadeinJapan]

They're the only 2 who i could see potentially challenging Allaho in this race.

Agreed with this - and there's a fair likelihood neither run here. The only one at a bigger price than those listed who could make the frame e/w is Protektorat of Skelton's - ran multiple times at Cheltenham before & appears to have taken to fences well so far, around 25s currently, could see him in top 3 with a few at head of market coming out. Would I have him beating Allaho though? No. The "angle" I've tried to get into for this race is simply a couple of roll ups here or there trying to get a bigger price around Allaho than 7/2.

[Quevega]

I though Allaho's performance was perfection. He blew them and us away.

But it was on the day.

We've seen performances like that before, in this race and others, and they are rarely, if ever, reproduced.

Which is why he is underpriced IMO.

[Istabraq]

I though Allaho's performance was perfection. He blew them and us away.

But it was on the day.

We've seen performances like that before, in this race and others, and they are rarely, if ever, reproduced.

Which is why he is underpriced IMO.

Good point that, I remember when Master Minded put up 'that' Queen Mother performance, or Apples Jade at Aintree, go back further an Master Oats running them stupid in his Gold Cup but like you say they generally do it once and most, if not all, efforts afterwards are inferior...

[Bonjers]

Agreed with this - and there's a fair likelihood neither run here. The only one at a bigger price than those listed who could make the frame e/w is Protektorat of Skelton's - ran multiple times at Cheltenham before & appears to have taken to fences well so far, around 25s currently, could see him in top 3 with a few at head of market coming out. Would I have him beating Allaho though? No. The "angle" I've tried to get into for this race is simply a couple of roll ups here or there trying to get a bigger price around Allaho than 7/2.

Skelton has already been out and said he'll be campaigned over 3m from here - think he also namechecked the Savills as an option.