2022 Turners Novices Chase (ex Marsh)

[Exar Essay]

If WPM wasn’t happy with Galopins jumping at the pace of the DRF race, would people be concerned dropping a furlong and a half where they potentially go the same pace or perhaps quicker than the DRF?

I've compared the two mid-trip chases that day at the DRF for speed - The handicap and the G1. Both races were exactly the same distance on the same track and same day.

I appreciate timings aren't everything and I'm only comparing two races (not a great sample size). Also, some of the handicappers were carrying less than GDC. The winner, Birchdale, was carrying 2 stone less than GDC. Both races had a front runner slightly in front of a compact field.

My timings were as follows:

Fence	HC	G1	Comments
Start	0	0
1st	13	13
2nd	33	33
3rd	52	51
4th	1.25	1.24
5th	2.07	2.07
6th	2.22	2.21	Slightly screwed
7th	2.55	2.55
8th	3.16	3.16	Screwed
9th	3.34	3.34
10th	3.50	3.49	GDC Hits the front
11th	4.06	4.05
3rd Last	4.28	4.26
2nd Last	4.46	4.43
Last	5.18	5.13
Line	5.40	5.33

My timings imply that the GDC race was run at a true pace before he hit the front and wound things up and that it wasn't that quick down the back straight as implied by Willie. GDC certainly injected speed into the race which surely he couldn't have done if the race was already being run at a high speed? GDC made his mistakes before he hit the front and at a point where both races were being run at a strikingly similar speed.

Were GDC's mistakes really speed induced?

Not sure what else you can conclude, but thought I'd share my findings.

[Benjy23]

Why so for Bob? Henry has always been fairly set on the Marsh. At differing times he's given me between 80 and 99% confidence that he'll send Bob here. In fact, the only wavering I've seen was in the most recent stable tour following Ruby and Patrick's sustained 'GDC to the Marsh' volley.

Sorry, possibly wasn't clear. I meant if Bob is switched to the RSA I'd want him to get beat. So if they both switched races I'd want GDC to get beat here and Bob to get beat in the RSA. In an ideal world they'd stick to where we all expected and both win.

I don't for a minute think Bob will switch to be honest but as you say there was a hint of it the other day.

[Craigy14]

I've compared the two mid-trip chases that day at the DRF for speed - The handicap and the G1. Both races were exactly the same distance on the same track and same day.

I appreciate timings aren't everything and I'm only comparing two races (not a great sample size). Also, some of the handicappers were carrying less than GDC. The winner, Birchdale, was carrying 2 stone less than GDC. Both races had a front runner slightly in front of a compact field.

My timings were as follows:

Fence	HC	G1	Comments
Start	0	0
1st	13	13
2nd	33	33
3rd	52	51
4th	1.25	1.24
5th	2.07	2.07
6th	2.22	2.21	Slightly screwed
7th	2.55	2.55
8th	3.16	3.16	Screwed
9th	3.34	3.34
10th	3.50	3.49	GDC Hits the front
11th	4.06	4.05
3rd Last	4.28	4.26
2nd Last	4.46	4.43
Last	5.18	5.13
Line	5.40	5.33

My timings imply that the GDC race was run at a true pace before he hit the front and wound things up and that it wasn't that quick down the back straight as implied by Willie. GDC certainly injected speed into the race which surely he couldn't have done if the race was already being run at a high speed? GDC made his mistakes before he hit the front and at a point where both races were being run at a strikingly similar speed.

Were GDC's mistakes really speed induced?

Not sure what else you can conclude, but thought I'd share my findings.

Do we know how both races compare to standard etc for the track?

WPM will know how the pace of a race is being run watching it or he wouldn’t have made those comments I wouldn’t have thought. Did PT not say as much as well post race? Could just have made that up but I thought after speaking to PT it confirmed what WPM was thinking about the pace.

[Exar Essay]

Do we know how both races compare to standard etc for the track?

I don't know. An accepted limitation.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I'd really enjoy it if they both switched races and got beat now to be honest.

I'd expect Bob to go off favourite if both run here though. I'd imagine he'd be more popular with the casuals as well.

GDC can’t switch as he had no race name checked, it’s only mentioned as a switch because of people’s judgments some time ago.
Bob on the other hand would be much more of a switch as connections have indicated the Turners as his probable race.
So basically if HDB said we are going RSA that would be far worse than WM saying we goTurners.
Anyway selfishly I hope both come here plus LP, what a race to look forward to and savour that would be!!

[giantcauseway]

There was a comment where WPM suggested it was one of the quickest races ever run!! lol. Even namechecked Bryan Cooper as agreeing with that.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Am i missing something here? People talking like its all done and dusted. How short are peoples memories here? This happens EVERY year, its a disinformation campaign, mind games, call it what you want. I even remember Ruby confirming this in an interview a few years back (i think he said something like 'if you think willie mullins doesnt play mind games with everyone you must be mad', altho i dont remember where this interview was).

He might end up in the rsa. He might end up in the Turners. One things for sure tho, the words that willie mullins says to the press are of zero relevance, just ignore it all and form your own oppinon

That’s a big part of all this…….people did form their own opinion, and now finding it tough to deal with now they realise that opinion might turn out to be the wrong one!!

[Quevega]

GDC can’t switch as he had no race name checked, it’s only mentioned as a switch because of people’s judgments some time ago.
Bob on the other hand would be much more of a switch as connections have indicated the Turners as his probable race.
So basically if HDB said we are going RSA that would be far worse than WM saying we goTurners.
Anyway selfishly I hope both come here plus LP, what a race to look forward to and savour that would be!!

Exactamundo.

[Many Clouds]

GDC can’t switch as he had no race name checked, it’s only mentioned as a switch because of people’s judgments some time ago.
Bob on the other hand would be much more of a switch as connections have indicated the Turners as his probable race.
So basically if HDB said we are going RSA that would be far worse than WM saying we goTurners.
Anyway selfishly I hope both come here plus LP, what a race to look forward to and savour that would be!!

Much rather watch LHP v Bob and GDC v BMG in two different races and have a chance of winning some dollar.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Much rather watch LHP v Bob and GDC v BMG in two different races and have a chance of winning some dollar.

Ha ha, understand that MC.

[punterorplonker]

OK here goes.
This post and comments (hopefully) will exclusively miss out the top 3. Not interested folks

No use of the word Bob.. Galloping or press

At this point of the market there is a strong chance only 7 runners. That would be grand.

This is the time to get a juicy price for the 3 places and even a without the the top 2 mark ew. Not Many in the oddschecker list may run

I would be happy if my horse finished 4th even.

The question is what horse. Really struggling but I know something is out there.

What will be Willie's 2nd or 3rd string for example?

I started to think about minella drama winning today and shortening lol

[Kevloaf]

OK here goes.
This post and comments (hopefully) will exclusively miss out the top 3. Not interested folks

No use of the word Bob.. Galloping or press

At this point of the market there is a strong chance only 7 runners. That would be grand.

This is the time to get a juicy price for the 3 places and even a without the the top 2 mark ew. Not Many in the oddschecker list may run

I would be happy if my horse finished 4th even.

The question is what horse. Really struggling but I know something is out there.

What will be Willie's 2nd or 3rd string for example?

I started to think about minella drama winning today and shortening lol

Is there a without the top 2 market up though?

[Craigy14]

Is there a without the top 2 market up though?

Exactly that mate, exclude the top 2, it’s hard to see l’homme Presse out the top 3.

Brian Hughes has already said his priorities will be elsewhere the week of Cheltenham, which is a shame, because I think he’s a top top class pilot!

[Kevloaf]

Pointless tipping something in a market that doesn't exist though? punterorplonker

[Pendil1111]

All very interesting thoughts on it.

Anyone have any thoughts on who will win the race, who will go off favourite?

I think GDC will assume favouritism if declared here and that Bob will beat him and the others using his burst of speed up the hill........I think Bob is the better all round horse and he will be ridden by the best jockey from Ireland IMHO so go on Bob for me........