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Thinks i was still wearing nappies (its seems that long ago ) when starting to wave the American Mike flag. Would be great if i puts you all on a goodun.
I'm not sure what to think about American Mike. He's very highly rated from the point field, so I've watched his race and he won showing a bit of pace. I'm not sure he beat anything at all, but he was visually impressive. His breeding though suggests proper stayer which doesn't make him an obvious Champion Bumper type.
For those of us that make books he's hard to back. 16/1 isn't great for a horse that's not even made its debut under rules, but admittedly would look good later if I'm completely wrong and he's the second coming. If he was 40/1 it like Sir Gerhard was at this stage last season it would be an easier decision, but even then I didn't back SG and wasted a few points later trying to get a roll-over price, and then still only got him at 20/1.
The problem is he'll probably go and win a soft bumper somewhere and 16's will become 6's, and we'll still have no idea how good he is, or where he'll be in the pecking order. I'm generally pretty decisive with my betting, but this race troubles me every season. I tend to end up with the winner and make a profit each season, but it always feels a little bit chaotic and perhaps I stumble my way there rather than feel it's under control.
This is what I wrote in my diary about the race:
Key Stats:
Horses from Leopardstown DRF, Fairyhouse, and Newbury bumpers have dominated
5 and 6 year old win this. Cue Card last 4 year old in 2010. Trend likely to continue but perhaps consider French breds
Discount anything beaten last time
Will have won in a field of 11 or more at some stage in the season
14 of the last 15 had never finished worse than 2nd. If not all 1's and 2's against their name, the other run should have been before June the previous year
Mares overperform their numbers. 2 from the last 5 winners, plus places. 7lb allowance is useful as we've seen in other races
Ratings have generally been a decent guide. If not rated highly already (high 120's and unexposed or already in the 130's), has probably only had one run
Mullins (3 from 5, and 11 from 24) and Elliott (2 from 5) are dominating
Only 2 from 10 UK winners but both were already RPR rated in the 130's. Newbury Bumper is the one to watch, but consider the two early season Cheltenham bumpers
Skelton is starting to have some impact with both Third Time Luckki and Elle Est Belle running big races in the last two seasons
Plan:
Not a big betting race for me usually, but the aim is to get the right Mullins and Elliott horses onside antepost. Consider De Bromhead this season too. Look at the best of the mares, and perhaps add a UK horse perhpas with Skelton if something stands out and hits 130 or is a 123+ UK mare. Use the ratings as a good guide, and don't be afraid to add one or two in the immediate lead up. I've reviewed my last 10 seasons and all have been profitable with the winner being in my book for each of them, so I may increase stakes this season. Relegate and Briar Hill were only the real shock horses at 25/1, but both were Mullins horses so were easy to back. I think this has become a race that shows that the best prepared horses win at the Festival, and Mullins and Elliott have become masters at peaking their horses on a single day. Plus their buying power makes it highly likely that the best bumper horses reside in their stables.
Reading my own thoughts back above I really should leave him alone for the time being and adjust my stakes accordingly when horses come out and show their colours. But it's definitely a race to potentially nick and advantage in if you're on the right one early like many were with Sir Gerhard last season, and blatantly you want the right Elliott and Mullins horses onside because law of averages says it's the right thing to do. In the case of American Mike he's a very short 16/1, so I think for now I'll wait for entries and see where Elliott sends him. Creature of habit and all that. I want to see what he sent to the same race before, what type of horse it was (breeding, size, scope, etc), how it previously performed in points, and how it ultimately it turned out.
What's the thought process of others that either have either backed him at 16's, or have left him alone at least for the time being?
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
Spectre for me it was a no brainer to back him given the race he is being targeted at. The Down Royal is Elliotts and he’s sent 3 very highly rated individuals in the last 3 runnings and won all 3, Malone Road, Easywork and Sir Gerhard. That for me is a sign that he sends his best or what he says as potentially his bent bumper horse to the race.
I got on 20/1 soon as I read the stable tour, yes it’s not that great a price but in comparison to Classic Getaway and Grangeclare West (who I don’t think we’re much bigger than 20/1, correct me if I’m wrong) we know he’s staying in bumpers for the season.
The bookies are a joke and that is reflected in what you’ve highlighted Sir G to be last year to what American Mike was priced up this year.
Last edited by Craigy14; 14 October 2021, 09:31 AM.
Wouldn't touch anything in the Bumper without cashout, in October like you @Spectre
But I am not a book builder though, generally, so more picky about when to bet on a race like the Bumper.
16/1 with cashout isn't of big interest at the moment.
Gordon's a creature of habit, and the Down Royal race is easy for him to win, as Willie doesn't run his young horses there, there's rarely much competition.
If American Mike runs and wins there by a few lengths he will be cut in the betting to single figures.
Doesn't mean he will win (or not win), in March, it means he's maybe the first gelding we've seen of some merit for the race.
It does mean he will appear in my Irish Race Planning Diary if he runs/wins at Down Royal though.
I'm not sure what to think about American Mike. He's very highly rated from the point field, so I've watched his race and he won showing a bit of pace. I'm not sure he beat anything at all, but he was visually impressive. His breeding though suggests proper stayer which doesn't make him an obvious Champion Bumper type.
For those of us that make books he's hard to back. 16/1 isn't great for a horse that's not even made its debut under rules, but admittedly would look good later if I'm completely wrong and he's the second coming. If he was 40/1 it like Sir Gerhard was at this stage last season it would be an easier decision, but even then I didn't back SG and wasted a few points later trying to get a roll-over price, and then still only got him at 20/1.
The problem is he'll probably go and win a soft bumper somewhere and 16's will become 6's, and we'll still have no idea how good he is, or where he'll be in the pecking order. I'm generally pretty decisive with my betting, but this race troubles me every season. I tend to end up with the winner and make a profit each season, but it always feels a little bit chaotic and perhaps I stumble my way there rather than feel it's under control.
This is what I wrote in my diary about the race:
Key Stats:
Horses from Leopardstown DRF, Fairyhouse, and Newbury bumpers have dominated
5 and 6 year old win this. Cue Card last 4 year old in 2010. Trend likely to continue but perhaps consider French breds
Discount anything beaten last time
Will have won in a field of 11 or more at some stage in the season
14 of the last 15 had never finished worse than 2nd. If not all 1's and 2's against their name, the other run should have been before June the previous year
Mares overperform their numbers. 2 from the last 5 winners, plus places. 7lb allowance is useful as we've seen in other races
Ratings have generally been a decent guide. If not rated highly already (high 120's and unexposed or already in the 130's), has probably only had one run
Mullins (3 from 5, and 11 from 24) and Elliott (2 from 5) are dominating
Only 2 from 10 UK winners but both were already RPR rated in the 130's. Newbury Bumper is the one to watch, but consider the two early season Cheltenham bumpers
Skelton is starting to have some impact with both Third Time Luckki and Elle Est Belle running big races in the last two seasons
Plan:
Not a big betting race for me usually, but the aim is to get the right Mullins and Elliott horses onside antepost. Consider De Bromhead this season too. Look at the best of the mares, and perhaps add a UK horse perhpas with Skelton if something stands out and hits 130 or is a 123+ UK mare. Use the ratings as a good guide, and don't be afraid to add one or two in the immediate lead up. I've reviewed my last 10 seasons and all have been profitable with the winner being in my book for each of them, so I may increase stakes this season. Relegate and Briar Hill were only the real shock horses at 25/1, but both were Mullins horses so were easy to back. I think this has become a race that shows that the best prepared horses win at the Festival, and Mullins and Elliott have become masters at peaking their horses on a single day. Plus their buying power makes it highly likely that the best bumper horses reside in their stables.
Reading my own thoughts back above I really should leave him alone for the time being and adjust my stakes accordingly when horses come out and show their colours. But it's definitely a race to potentially nick and advantage in if you're on the right one early like many were with Sir Gerhard last season, and blatantly you want the right Elliott and Mullins horses onside because law of averages says it's the right thing to do. In the case of American Mike he's a very short 16/1, so I think for now I'll wait for entries and see where Elliott sends him. Creature of habit and all that. I want to see what he sent to the same race before, what type of horse it was (breeding, size, scope, etc), how it previously performed in points, and how it ultimately it turned out.
What's the thought process of others that either have either backed him at 16's, or have left him alone at least for the time being?
Hi Spectre: Having just watched a replay of American Mike's ptp I certainly won't be chasing him at this stage.
Unlike you, I wasn't overly impressed with him visually.
I was more taken with another horse Gordon picked up at the same sale - Ash Tree Meadow who cost 135k. Even so, he doesn't strike me as another Sir Gerhard at this stage.
But I think your own stats highlight the key to finding the winner. You need something that produces an rpr in the high 120s or preferably 130+ on its bumper debut.
I just did a quick exercise on all the horses who competed in Sir Gerhard's bumper. Anyone who based their selection on the horse's bumper debut rpr would have found the first four finishers.
I found that very startling. Is it really that easy to find the bumper winner?
Here are the stats:
1. Sir Gerhard 131
2. Kilcruit 123
3 Elle Est Belle 120
4. Three Stripe Life 127
5. 100
6 110
7 118
8 113
9 114
10 110
11 110
12 100
13 105
14 102
Surprised by the accuracy of this stat I looked back at 2019 to find out if this was an aberration or has the makings of a significant trend.
The bumper debut form-line worked out pretty well then too. The first three home at Cheltenham were among the top 5 for bumper debut rprs - but punters would have got stung following Eskylane and Admirel.
In Ferny's year there were a couple of well fancied Pipe horses who couldn't overcome their modest debut marks and finished out with the washing at the Festival.
So maybe that's another pointer from this stat - don't follow well backed bumper horses who failed to post a good mark on their debut.
I know it would be necessary to go back a lot further to get a sample size that had more meaning but to my mind it's not a bad rough guide.
Any potential bumper superstar must get close to 130 rpr on debut.
So as someone who makes a book I'd have thought it's worth jumping on anything that posts a bumper debut rpr of 123 or over. The list probably wont be very long. Only 3 who went to post this year and 5 last year.
I suppose with cash out it might be possible to get on board before the debut of any likely candidates and jump ship at little or no cost if they fail to hit the 120s.
Last edited by nortonscoin200; 14 October 2021, 05:34 PM.
Hi Spectre: Having just watched a replay of American Mike's ptp Icertainly won't be chasing him at this stage.
Unlike you, I wasn't overly impressed with him visually.
I was more taken with another horse Gordon picked up at the same sale - Ash Tree Meadow who cost 135k. Even so, he doesn't strike me as another Sir Gerhard at this stage.
But I think your own stats highlight the key to finding the winner. You need something that produces an rpr in the high 120s or preferably 130+ on its bumper debut.
I just did a quick exercise on all the horses who competed in Sir Gerhard's bumper. Anyone who based their selection on the horse's bumper debut rpr would have found the first four finishers.
I found that very startling. Is it really that easy to find the bumper winner?
Here are the stats:
1. Sir Gerhard 131
2. Kilcruit 123
3 Elle Est Belle 120
4. Three Stripe Life 127
5. 100
6 110
7 118
8 113
9 114
10 110
11 110
12 100
13 105
14 102
Surprised by the accuracy of this stat I looked back at 2019 to find out if this was an aberration or has the makings of a significant trend.
The bumper debut form-line worked out pretty well then too. The first three home at Cheltenham were among the top 5 for bumper debut rprs - but punters would have got stung following Eskylane and Admirel.
In Ferny's year there were a couple of well fancied Pipe horses who couldn't overcome their modest debut marks and finished out with the washing at the Festival.
So maybe that's another pointer from this stat - don't follow well backed bumper horses who failed to post a good mark on their debut.
I know it would be necessary to go back a lot further to get a sample size that had more meaning but to my mind it's not a bad rough guide.
Any potential bumper superstar must get close to 130 rpr on debut.
So as someone who makes a book I'd have thought it's worth jumping on anything that posts a bumper debut rpr of 123 or over. The list probably wont be very long. Only 3 who went to post this year and 5 last year.
I suppose with cash out it might be possible to get on board before the debut of any likely candidates and jump ship at little or no cost if they fail to hit the 120s.
I also touched on this in my trainer trends thread in the diary section. Been a fairly reliable stat to be fair though like any you will get outliers all the same.
Best Candidate so far would be Classic Getaway then. Maybe he will be 'the one'.
Spot on Lobos but I reckon the chances are we have yet to see the winner.
Classic Getaway and I Am Maximus both posted 125 which would certainly give them place prospects at least. But IAM looks set for hurdles.
The more time I spend looking into this the more fascinating it becomes.
Just been through the Oddschecker prices for next year's bumper and the only horses who do fit the bill probably won't run in the race.
Journey With Me posted a 131 rpr on bumper debut and Dysart Dynamo hit 132.
Henry's already said JWM is set for a hurdling campaign and I imagine Dysart Dynamo will go the same way.
Three others in the market have yet to make their bumper debut including Gordon's American Mike and Glowing Account (Willie)
Here's the current market (best prices) with debut rprs
10-1 Classic Getaway 125
12-1 Pink in the Park 115
12-1 Grangeclare West 115
20-1 American Mike
20-1 Cool Survivor
20-1 Hunters Yarn 100
20-1 Dark Raven 121
25-1 I Am Maximus 125
25-1 Guily Billy (going hurdling says Henry)
25-1 Nikini 100
25-1 Jonbon 124
25-1 Hob House 106
25-1 Nos Na Gaoithe 99
25-1 Journey With Me 131
25-1 Dysart Dynamo 132
33-1 Timeforatune 120
33-1 Ashroe Diamond 113
33-1 Level Neverending 100
33-1 Au Fleuron 103
33-1 Glowing Account (Willie)
40-1 Champ Kiely 121
40-1 Go Dante 118
40-1 Non Binding 8 (coughed)
50-1 Might Potter 103
66-1 Wells Glory 109
100-1 Big Changes 92
100-1 Best Pal 82
100-1 Bolintlea 100
Using the debut rpr yardstick would have also found the first two finishers in the 2019 bumper.
In 2018 only one horse in the field posted a debut rpr above 121. That was Carefully Selected who notched a whopping 138 but he was beaten a neck by Relegate.
2017 is interesting because it sort of blows this theory out of the water!!!
But the one saving grace is that only one of the field who lined up qualified under the rpr debut stats - Willie's 11/2 second favourite Carter McKay who trailed in 13th.
My view is that none of the horses who have run in bumpers so far will be good enough to win the big one in March.
I only want to be on board a horse who posts a minimum 128rpr on debut.
Gordon has said American Mike will stick to bumpers this season and has lined him up for the Down Royal race where Sir Gerhard posted 131.
I wasn't overly impressed with American Mike's ptp run even though he won by 20 lengths!!!!
But he's obviously with the right connections in Gordie and Codd, his ptp mark was a shade better than Sir gerhard and...I have been wrong so many times before.
So, as several of the market leaders won't come up to scratch - in my view - I've jumped on board now and will hopefully be able to cash out if he fails to record an exceptional debut rpr (128 minimum).
Willie will no doubt have something up his sleeve and I'll back anything else that hits 128 on debut - but if recent years are any guide the list won't be very long, maybe 3 at most.
It's probably the closest I'll ever come to making a book - perhaps more accurately a pamphlet - but I'm having fun.
6pts win AMERICAN MIKE at 16-1 in the Champion Bumper.
Last edited by nortonscoin200; 15 October 2021, 09:58 AM.
I wasn't overly impressed with American Mike's ptp run even though he won by 20 lengths!!!!
[...]
6pts win AMERICAN MIKE at 16-1 in the Champion Bumper.
great write up. enjoyed how it read to me like you'd talked yourself out of American Mike with the p2p performance and then you slap down a 6 pointer - rate it
There's a good reason that the official handicappers want evidence from 3 runs.
The problem with RPRs is that they have to do them for every race and there is often no supporting evidence for debutants and novices. If I see a run of RPRs that goes 137/138/143/137 I incline to the view that the 143 is probably the one that isn't right but it's entirely possible that the final 137 was the exception due to a number of circumstances. I wouldn't be taking RPRs as primary evidence but we probably all use them to support a previously held view.
Was encouraged to see American Mike won on good ground also for that P2P in the fastest time that day. I was thinking pedigree screams stayer but depends how he is ridden etc when we see him.
With that route now mentioned it’s a no brainer to back him for the Bumper at this stage.
Chev Park seems to be sending all their ones hurdling.
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) when starting to wave the American Mike flag. Would be great if i puts you all on a goodun.
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