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2022 Champion Bumper

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  • Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post

    6lbs is the biggest adjustment I've seen them do
    It suggests someone let the YTS trainee have a go and then the boss got involved, as Q says, it raises questions on credibility of the system...

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    • Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post

      6lbs is the biggest adjustment I've seen them do
      Do you know who's responsible for them ?
      Is it Rodway ?
      I'd imagine it's a team and they use guidelines/tables etc

      I think they are useful for sure, but should not be taken at face value, especially isolated figures.

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      • I'd imagine The Mediator has been reassessed based on the maximum rating they were prepared to give American Mike. But as Sax says, a 6lb adjustment is unusual.
        Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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        • USA Mike is 6/1 in a place.......WTF ! We are in November please bookies !

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          • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
            USA Mike is 6/1 in a place.......WTF ! We are in November please bookies !
            Was similar with Sir Gerhard wasn't it? Although visually SG looked more impressive, I remember Jamie taking a pull coming round the home turn which is crazy to think.

            ATR sectional spotlight guy also made some good comments on him:

            "But the most impressive winning performance on the clock came in the concluding bumper from American Mike, who ran 6.8s (about half a furlong) quicker than did Eskylane, and much more than that quicker than those other two hurdle winners. And he did it by running faster late on than any of those other winners also.

            Jumping hurdles slows down a horse, but by a fairly predictable amount per obstacle. After that has been allowed for, American Mike’s time performance is still the best of the quartet and a notably good one for a bumper performer.

            None of that factors in that American Mike won with his head in his chest and yet produced an effort that would have seen him placed in the latest Champion Bumper at Cheltenham judged on race standards.

            If the above message sounds uncannily familiar, then it might be because Sir Gerhard did something very similar in the same Down Royal bumper this time last year, before ultimately winning at Cheltenham, for which he was 6/1 in the betting at the time.

            American Mike is a point or two longer at the time of writing, and I have played up some of the Sir Gerhard winnings on him ante-post. There is much water to flow under the bridge between now and March. But there will not be many better bumper performances on the clock in the interim, of that I am sure."

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            • I've had a look at look at the last five years around runners who had posted 126+ RPR going into the Champion Bumper.

              Out of 97 runners, only 26 had posted 126+ RPRs going into the race. Of those 26, 10 won or placed. So 2/3s of win/place positions have been taken by horses who have this form going into the race. All of the winners in the last 5 years had 126+.

              Looking at it by year:

              2021: 4 with 126+ and 2 won/placed (Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard)
              2020: 9 with 126+ and 2 won/placed (Ferny Hollow and Appreciate It)
              2019: 4 with 126+ and 2 won/placed (Envoi Allen and Blue Sari)
              2018: 5 with 126+ and 2 won/placed (Relegate and Carefully Selected)
              2017: 4 with 126+ and 2 won/placed (Fayonagh and Claimtakinforgan)

              So I think American Mike is very definitely A Good Thing. Especially when we consider it was his first run and he could come on for it.

              To cover this race off, I think the main aim needs to be to find the Mullins bumper horses lurking and back early. Looking at the stable tours, it is really noticeable for the number of potential bumper contenders that he says are actually going over hurdles. Specifically mentioned for bumpers are:

              Pink in the Park
              Nikini

              Both mentioned for "mares bumpers".

              The only other possible highlighted is Goven but purely because he is mentioned as an exciting prospect but with no specific target highlighted. Don't know too much about him other than: https://www.arqana.com/lots/autumn_sale/270/83813

              So I think there is a bumper horse or two out there somewhere to find.


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              • Originally posted by The Giant Bolster View Post
                American Mike is very definitely A Good Thing.
                *insert hammer emojis here*

                no but seriously, decent post and pretty much exactly alone my lines of thinking re this race, RPRs for the bumper are something I looked at myself in my trainer trends thread in the members section. Don’t generally like to put too much stock in them as a rule but RPRs have proved fairly decent at predicting who will perform well in the champion bumper.

                And I agree with your take on the race, too. Elliotts MO for the past few seasons now is he has 1 Cheltenham bumper horse going with a serious chance and it looks like this season that one will be American Mike, so I’m not overly bothered about backing anything else for the race from this yard, definitely not until maybe like February or something anyway. Just got to try and find the Mullins horse now, probably paying particular attention to the bumpers in Leopardstown over Xmas although obviously that’s not foolproof as kilcruit didn’t run there.

                with the success these 2 trainers have had in the race in recent years I think looking at anything from anywhere else is probably energy better spent on other things tbh.

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                • Did people not think American Mike had an unusual front leg action? His front right leg seemed to loop around quite a lot to me. He seemed massively impressive but I that action was quite off putting. I’m no equine expert but I would assume a more straight back and forth action would be preferred? Is this view of running style to performance the received wisdom and is it well placed?

                  I remember Attraction on the flat having an unusual action but that didn’t seem to do her any harm but I can’t remember too many others.

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                  • Originally posted by Cheltenham Novice Chase View Post
                    Did people not think American Mike had an unusual front leg action? His front right leg seemed to loop around quite a lot to me. He seemed massively impressive but I that action was quite off putting. I’m no equine expert but I would assume a more straight back and forth action would be preferred? Is this view of running style to performance the received wisdom and is it well placed?

                    I remember Attraction on the flat having an unusual action but that didn’t seem to do her any harm but I can’t remember too many others.
                    Certainly doesn't have a classic action does he watching back

                    What I would say is to my eye he seemed to have quite a daisy cutting action so should thrive on decent spring ground

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                    • Down Royal and Flemington go under the microscope this week, as Simon Rowlands returns with his sectional expert eye.


                      Another nice bit of praise for American Mike on the clock....

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                      • As he states in his column, Simon Rowland said the same thing about Sir Gerhard exactly a year ago. I'm putting American Mike in multiplies, he's too short for me for an AP bet now. All points lead to him being Gordon's number one bumper horse as well at this point and he's doing it on the clock.

                        You'd expect Willie to have at least one that will match it, but he'd have to be off the scale to shift the American Mike price. That's the risk we're taking here, so early in the season.

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                        • Originally posted by Irish Rugby View Post
                          As he states in his column, Simon Rowland said the same thing about Sir Gerhard exactly a year ago. I'm putting American Mike in multiplies, he's too short for me for an AP bet now. All points lead to him being Gordon's number one bumper horse as well at this point and he's doing it on the clock.

                          You'd expect Willie to have at least one that will match it, but he'd have to be off the scale to shift the American Mike price. That's the risk we're taking here, so early in the season.
                          Kilcruit went off 10/11f last year, so it's entirely possibly WPM will have something to challenge AM's price. Still, those are on the day prices, and if AM does what Sir G did at Navan, he'll be shorter than he is now.

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                          • Still haven't given up hope that one of Classic Getaway or Grangeclare West cones here. Both will be aged 6 which have a very good record in the race and Mullins ran both Appreciate It and Kilcruit at that age in the last two years (SG also was 6) so it's not as if he thinks 7 is too old to start their jumping careers. I know it will go against the grain being second season Bumpers but Willie has so many Novice Hurdlers at his disposal it sort of solves a good problem ,fits in nice and gives him a big chance of another festival winner.

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                            • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                              Still haven't given up hope that one of Classic Getaway or Grangeclare West cones here. Both will be aged 6 which have a very good record in the race and Mullins ran both Appreciate It and Kilcruit at that age in the last two years (SG also was 6) so it's not as if he thinks 7 is too old to start their jumping careers. I know it will go against the grain being second season Bumpers but Willie has so many Novice Hurdlers at his disposal it sort of solves a good problem ,fits in nice and gives him a big chance of another festival winner.
                              I don't think either will, but feels like Grangeclare West is the one there's been the least talk about for anything in particular. Classic Getaway definitely seems to be going over hurdles. GW is also the one who's been touted for the shorter trip. Although reading stable tour comments, he's fairly vague about both. He loves the phrase 'I imagine'!
                              Last edited by Atlantic Viking; 4 November 2021, 11:40 AM.

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                              • Originally posted by Atlantic Viking View Post

                                I don't think either will, but feels like Grangeclare West is the one there's been the least talk about for anything in particular. Classic Getaway definitely seems to be going over hurdles. GW is also the one who's been touted for the shorter trip. Although reading stable tour comments, he's fairly vague about both. He loves the phrase 'I imagine'!
                                Really? Willie drops in Supreme in SL stable tour.

                                While Classic Getaway and Grangeclare West won bumpers at the end of last season and are quite high in the betting for the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, I’d imagine both horses will go novice hurdling at their age. Grangeclare West looked very impressive when winning at Punchestown and he shows plenty at home so I imagine he will be going the shorter route. He could be a Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle horse.

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