2022 Queen Mother Champion Chase

[opatcho]

I’m struggling to see the form being reversed

Energumene ran a great race whereas Shishkin jumped left, nodded, was a little bit wide and also he was slow from the off

Energumene has a few similarities with UDS, likk I’mes to get on with things but will pump into a Henderson monster who has another gear

Got to feel for Mullins when it comes to the QM, always finds one better or his horses disappoint (douvan - CPS)

[Quevega]

You think he could improve if they found a way to race him from off the pace ?

I doubt they'll do much different. In that respect, although if they have another horse like Chacun they could let him do the first half mile or mile or so and see how it plays out, especially if it's windy.
It's probably just a tweak of the pace, and timing of the gear change that's needed/worth trying.

Energumene has to do more earlier to get Shishkin even more uncomfortable.
It was almost perfect but not quite.
Once a horse is getting ridden it becomes more difficult seeing the stride, as the jockey gets more agitated, and the horse would sense this also.

The other factor for both horses is that they both probably had their hardest ever race, especially those last 3 or 4 furlongs.
So the mental side of it is also at play.
The smarter horses tend to remember the pain and don't always repeat it.
The idiots and braver types would do the same again.

The jumping slightly right is no bother IMO as long as it's not pronounced, then it can be an advantage as those on the outside tend to follow the pattern, and if they don't they can find themselves jumping up his arse on the landing side. Which is not great for momentum if the jockey takes a pull.

This would be worse for Shishkin if he's wanting daylight out wide at some stage as he corrects to his left.

The biggest risk for Shishkin is similar to when we had Altior who has a very similar style, and that's the timing of his run. Altior did not have a rival like this and any mistake over the last 2 fences with Nico keen to hold on to produce the burst will be his downfall.

I though Nico's rides against inferior opposition were the only way Altior would have got beat, as he was good enough to take it up at the top of the hill and smash them all to pieces.
Shishkin isn't vs Energumene so will have to rely on mowing him down again.

Having said all that, Energumene would have to be foot perfect, cos Shishkin looks the slightly better horse.

It's also a slightly shorter trip on a different track of course.

[Quevega]

Interesting in that same interview that Mullins said Energumene lost a lot of weight when weighed on his return so clearly the race took a lot out of him. He also mentioned his tendancy to jump right which could present problems at Cheltenham and the undulations of the track. If I was an Energumene supporter then I wouldn't have any confidence in turning the form around as Willie pretty much gave out those same vibes.

They all lose a lot of weight.

[Lobos]

They all lose a lot of weight.

Never !!!

WEll I'll be dammed!!

[TiggerRoll]

I doubt they'll do much different. In that respect, although if they have another horse like Chacun they could let him do the first half mile or mile or so and see how it plays out, especially if it's windy.
It's probably just a tweak of the pace, and timing of the gear change that's needed/worth trying.

Energumene has to do more earlier to get Shishkin even more uncomfortable.
It was almost perfect but not quite.
Once a horse is getting ridden it becomes more difficult seeing the stride, as the jockey gets more agitated, and the horse would sense this also.

The other factor for both horses is that they both probably had their hardest ever race, especially those last 3 or 4 furlongs.
So the mental side of it is also at play.
The smarter horses tend to remember the pain and don't always repeat it.
The idiots and braver types would do the same again.

The jumping slightly right is no bother IMO as long as it's not pronounced, then it can be an advantage as those on the outside tend to follow the pattern, and if they don't they can find themselves jumping up his arse on the landing side. Which is not great for momentum if the jockey takes a pull.

This would be worse for Shishkin if he's wanting daylight out wide at some stage as he corrects to his left.

The biggest risk for Shishkin is similar to when we had Altior who has a very similar style, and that's the timing of his run. Altior did not have a rival like this and any mistake over the last 2 fences with Nico keen to hold on to produce the burst will be his downfall.

I though Nico's rides against inferior opposition were the only way Altior would have got beat, as he was good enough to take it up at the top of the hill and smash them all to pieces.
Shishkin isn't vs Energumene so will have to rely on mowing him down again.

Having said all that, Energumene would have to be foot perfect, cos Shishkin looks the slightly better horse.

It's also a slightly shorter trip on a different track of course.

Lots of great points to ponder here. My big takeaway was that I was completely wrong beforehand in thinking that Shishkin was the faster horse. Energumene seemed to get him at it relatively easily (jumping errors helped, evidently), but couldn't sustain it quite long enough. The slighlty shorter distance you mention and sharper track should really play in to Energumene's hands if he can cope with the tight left handed turns and especially the jumps situated near to the bends.

It was almost the perfect race in terms of making the rematch even more enthralling.

[Lobos]

The undulations of Cheltenham for me makes the track more of a test than the flat track of Ascot so this negates the 'slightly shorter distance' theory put up by some 'experts'. Shishkin's course experience is a huge advantage imo. Very few have won the Champion Chase having not had a prior run at Cheltenham.

[Saxon Warrior]

Lots of great points to ponder here. My big takeaway was that I was completely wrong beforehand in thinking that Shishkin was the faster horse. Energumene seemed to get him at it relatively easily (jumping errors helped, evidently), but couldn't sustain it quite long enough. The slighlty shorter distance you mention and sharper track should really play in to Energumene's hands if he can cope with the tight left handed turns and especially the jumps situated near to the bends.

It was almost the perfect race in terms of making the rematch even more enthralling.

Shishkin's run style isn't to be the faster horse earlier in a race - just to lie up behind the faster horses.

It's always been to be faster in a finish.

The Cheltenham Hill would suit a horse seeking to be faster in a finish.

I'm not expecting Shishkin to lead at any time, prior to the hill at the finish.

[Quevega]

Shishkin's run style isn't to be the faster horse earlier in a race - just to lie up behind the faster horses.

It's always been to be faster in a finish.

The Cheltenham Hill would suit a horse seeking to be faster in a finish.

I'm not expecting Shishkin to lead at any time, prior to the hill at the finish.

Yeah - he needs some gathering for sure and it took a while for him to get there.
To my eyes it was only after the last when he started to gain as between the last 2 the distance seemed to hold.
I think it'll be a very similar story unless some bigger jumping issue arises for either of them.

[Quevega]

The undulations of Cheltenham for me makes the track more of a test than the flat track of Ascot so this negates the 'slightly shorter distance' theory put up by some 'experts'. Shishkin's course experience is a huge advantage imo. Very few have won the Champion Chase having not had a prior run at Cheltenham.

More undulating yes, but on time and distance comparisons on average, with lots and lots of variables the times are very similar.
The old course is not that stiff in comparison to Ascot, if at all. The finish maybe.
Clarence house times are on average around 20 seconds slower for the 160 yards difference.
But not worth the discussion really.

[TiggerRoll]

Shishkin's run style isn't to be the faster horse earlier in a race - just to lie up behind the faster horses.

It's always been to be faster in a finish.

The Cheltenham Hill would suit a horse seeking to be faster in a finish.

I'm not expecting Shishkin to lead at any time, prior to the hill at the finish.

My point was really around the lying up behind the faster horses as you mention. There's a chance he ends up further back than is ideal rounding the bend because he struggles to keep tabs and then it's a case of whether he can power up the hill sufficiently. Until the last, the couse won't be a help but the run in from there will. It's a great conundrum.

Adding in how Willie may instruct the jockeys on Energumene and Chacun (if at all) to maximise the yard's chance, whilst probably ultimately compromising one of the horses in question, will be fascinating.

[Saxon Warrior]

My point was really around the lying up behind the faster horses as you mention. There's a chance he ends up further back than is ideal rounding the bend because he struggles to keep tabs and then it's a case of whether he can power up the hill sufficiently. Until the last, the couse won't be a help but the run in from there will. It's a great conundrum.

Adding in how Willie may instruct the jockeys on Energumene and Chacun (if at all) to maximise the yard's chance, whilst probably ultimately compromising one of the horses in question, will be fascinating.

I'm not sure thats much of a concern, given he has won the Supreme from 10L back and the Arkle on the same Old Course.

Anyone with big prices on Shishkin from over a year ago would willingly cover that, in some part, with 3/1 Energumene, if they hadnt done that already at gibber prices.

Or they could go "full jeopardy" and not do.

[Buckingham]

The undulations of Cheltenham for me makes the track more of a test than the flat track of Ascot so this negates the 'slightly shorter distance' theory put up by some 'experts'. Shishkin's course experience is a huge advantage imo. Very few have won the Champion Chase having not had a prior run at Cheltenham.

The undulations offset the distance to some degree but not completely. The distance of the Ascot race is 188 yards further than Cheltenham's. This should take in the region of 12 seconds on decent going but the difference in standard times between the two courses is only 8 seconds so the stiffer Cheltenham track is offsetting about 1/3 of the shorter distance. One other thing to note is that the race on Saturday was an extra 43 yards due to rail configuration which obviously aided Shishkin.

[Black Dog]

The undulations offset the distance to some degree but not completely. The distance of the Ascot race is 188 yards further than Cheltenham's. This should take in the region of 12 seconds on decent going but the difference in standard times between the two courses is only 8 seconds so the stiffer Cheltenham track is offsetting about 1/3 of the shorter distance. One other thing to note is that the race on Saturday was an extra 43 yards due to rail configuration which obviously aided Shishkin.

Why did it aid Shishkin more when Energumene was seen by many as a Ryanair possible? Isn't it just that Shishkin has an ability to quicken at the end of his races rather than just stay?

[TiggerRoll]

I'm not sure thats much of a concern, given he has won the Supreme from 10L back and the Arkle on the same Old Course.

Anyone with big prices on Shishkin from over a year ago would willingly cover that, in some part, with 3/1 Energumene, if they hadnt done that already at gibber prices.

Or they could go "full jeopardy" and not do.

It's not like he had to reel in anything of the quality of Energumene in those races though. It's hard to see him getting as far back as in the Supreme but Abacadabras is hardly going to kick away and make the most of the advantage. I'm not saying that Shishkin won't do it, just that the set up makes for a more interesting rematch than might otherwise be the case.

[ToniC]

The undulations of Cheltenham for me makes the track more of a test than the flat track of Ascot so this negates the 'slightly shorter distance' theory put up by some 'experts'. Shishkin's course experience is a huge advantage imo. Very few have won the Champion Chase having not had a prior run at Cheltenham.

I’m a huge fan of course form, and stats suggest for many a festival race it’s a big advantage to carry with you. Do trainers, or rather certain trainers, just think this is bollocks and it doesn’t matter, or what?

I’d struggle to tell you the head from the tail of a horse, but I know if Energumene was in my yard I would have ran him in the Schloer earlier in the season. History just says it makes sense to do so before the big day.