2022 Queen Mother Champion Chase

[Spectre]

The reason Energumene doesn't have the course experience is because he never came over as a novice hurdler, and picked up an injury prior to the Arkle. Most Champion Chase winners have been contesting the top races at the Festival since their novice or even bumper season. He's never had the opportunity to.

He's incredibly lightly raced with only 8 races since his PTP debut four years ago. He's obviously missed a bit of work recently given he hasn't reappeared, so I guess they have to be careful to keep him sound. All of that adds up to not being able to fit him into any stats to be honest, and you can only judge him on what he's done.

Personally I have Shishkin ahead of him. He's the straighter jumper, and his way of racing and travelling suits the race perfectly. And I also admit his course and distance experience has an influence too. There aren't any unknowns for him, Nico, or us.

Also I still have a suspicion that Energumene would be a complete monster over the intermediate trip, and he'd blow everyone, including Allaho, away in the Ryanair. It won't happen until next season though so I don't need to bother myself with it.

[Alexmilton]

The reason Energumene doesn't have the course experience is because he never came over as a novice hurdler, and picked up an injury prior to the Arkle. Most Champion Chase winners have been contesting the top races at the Festival since their novice or even bumper season. He's never had the opportunity to.

He's incredibly lightly raced with only 8 races since his PTP debut four years ago. He's obviously missed a bit of work recently given he hasn't reappeared, so I guess they have to be careful to keep him sound. All of that adds up to not being able to fit him into any stats to be honest, and you can only judge him on what he's done.

Personally I have Shishkin ahead of him. He's the straighter jumper, and his way of racing and travelling suits the race perfectly. And I also admit his course and distance experience has an influence too. There aren't any unknowns for him, Nico, or us.

Also I still have a suspicion that Energumene would be a complete monster over the intermediate trip, and he'd blow everyone, including Allaho, away in the Ryanair. It won't happen until next season though so I don't need to bother myself with it.

Is there a small chance that shiskin and energumene meet in the Clarence house (laughing as I type that), shiskin beats him comfortably and forces energumene to go up in trip this year?

[DenmanSacre]

The reason Energumene doesn't have the course experience is because he never came over as a novice hurdler, and picked up an injury prior to the Arkle. Most Champion Chase winners have been contesting the top races at the Festival since their novice or even bumper season. He's never had the opportunity to.

He's incredibly lightly raced with only 8 races since his PTP debut four years ago. He's obviously missed a bit of work recently given he hasn't reappeared, so I guess they have to be careful to keep him sound. All of that adds up to not being able to fit him into any stats to be honest, and you can only judge him on what he's done.

Personally I have Shishkin ahead of him. He's the straighter jumper, and his way of racing and travelling suits the race perfectly. And I also admit his course and distance experience has an influence too. There aren't any unknowns for him, Nico, or us.

Also I still have a suspicion that Energumene would be a complete monster over the intermediate trip, and he'd blow everyone, including Allaho, away in the Ryanair. It won't happen until next season though so I don't need to bother myself with it.

I'm a big fan of Energumene and I do think it will be incredibly close between him and Shishkin if they both run their race, but Shishkin has been there and done it at Cheltenham twice which gives him the edge. It may come down to who gets the best ride on the day.

But I totally agree that the Ryanair trip would be perfect for him. His debut over fences over 2m4 was electric and the new course suits front runners. If Allaho for whatever reason didn't turn up at Cheltenham, it would be interesting to see if they switched him to the Ryanair this year.

[Bollinger]

The reason Energumene doesn't have the course experience is because he never came over as a novice hurdler, and picked up an injury prior to the Arkle. Most Champion Chase winners have been contesting the top races at the Festival since their novice or even bumper season. He's never had the opportunity to.

He's incredibly lightly raced with only 8 races since his PTP debut four years ago. He's obviously missed a bit of work recently given he hasn't reappeared, so I guess they have to be careful to keep him sound. All of that adds up to not being able to fit him into any stats to be honest, and you can only judge him on what he's done.

Personally I have Shishkin ahead of him. He's the straighter jumper, and his way of racing and travelling suits the race perfectly. And I also admit his course and distance experience has an influence too. There aren't any unknowns for him, Nico, or us.

Also I still have a suspicion that Energumene would be a complete monster over the intermediate trip, and he'd blow everyone, including Allaho, away in the Ryanair. It won't happen until next season though so I don't need to bother myself with it.

You are absolutely right with your reasoning here Spectre.

What I’ve really struggled to understand with quite a few people’s views (not only on here, but in general across online platforms, YouTube ‘bloggers’ etc,etc…..) is how people can’t/don’t understand the differential, and why it is, that Energumene is double (and a touch more in places) the price of Shishkin for this race. The ‘argument’ (let’s call it a discussion) has always been that they can’t be separated in terms of quality and what they’ve achieved both thus far.

And I’m with this.

Totally.

They both appear relatively ‘major chink’ free, and look in terms of performance, at least 5lbs clear of any horse that’s likely to challenge them on the 16th March. To call a winner at this time, I will confess, is hard to call. I definitely do understand why people and punters discuss they can’t separate them.

However, what I feel people are blind to see is the reasoning of the differential. And why have bookmakers priced them up thus far. And it’s two considerable reasons. And they shouldn’t be difficult for an average punter to try to understand.

1) Course experience. I really don’t need to waste time covering ground what people should really understand, but Shishkin run here twice, won twice. Once after being in all kinds of trouble, the other without so much of twitch from de Boinville.

But the 2nd reason, and the one where I feel people need to understand why the differential was so large for so long (before Energumene hosed up at Cork and shortened into 9/4) is one word - liability.

2) The moment that Shishkin crossed that line in last year’s Arkle, 12 lengths clear, being eased down half a furlong from the line, hundreds of thousands were being placed on Shishkin to win in 12 months time for the Queen Mother. I could not imagine a smart bettor, who had access to funds or access to a bookmaker (online or in shop) who, if they fancied a horse for 12 months time for the Queen Mother, wouldn’t be clicking buttons and putting money under shop counters at 5/1 the moment he crossed the line.

Forget Shishkin, any horse that bolts up in an Arkle, unbeaten in his novice campaign, is going to attract some very serious money in the moments and minutes after a win. A year ago, a decade ago, whenever. The money would have been coming for him in droves, at that precise moment.

And that’s the thing. Whilst in the moments and minutes money would have poured in from all kinds of punter for Shishkin - from professional bettors all the way down to the working man in his local bookie with a slip in hand, Energumene would have just been left untouched. Unloved. Nobody knew how serious his niggle was that meant he’d missed out on an Arkle. All people had evidence of was of a horse that eased up the hill over 2 miles to win an Arkle.

Next stop Champion Chase a year hence.

And there’s your differential. People (and punters essentially) really need to understand the money that would have come have come for him in the minutes (literally) after his Arkle win. It would have been hundreds of thousands from pro’s, driving that 5/1 down the moment he crossed that line into the 3/1 very shortly after and over the Summer months that followed when others took their piece of the specific market.

The liabilities became huge for all bookmakers very, very, very quickly on Shishkin, and I genuinely feel that a lot of punters don’t understand this, and why his differential compared to Energumene (added with the course form) is and was the way it is/was.

Shishkin’s liability as a loss to all bookmakers grew like a snowball the moment he won his Arkle, and became a huge factor in his price difference.
9


Will Energumene beat him on March 16th?

It’s a huge possibility. He might even beat Shishkin very comfortably.

But at this precise moment, with the historical evidence all bookmakers have on Shishkin compared to Energumene, coupled with monies deposited within minutes (I reiterate, there would have considerable sums placed, and would have happened on ANY horse that bolted up in an Arkle years previous), there remains a reason why Energumene sits at double and more the price of Shishkin.

[DenmanSacre]

2) The moment that Shishkin crossed that line in last year’s Arkle, 12 lengths clear, being eased down half a furlong from the line, hundreds of thousands were being placed on Shishkin to win in 12 months time for the Queen Mother.

Do you really believe hundreds of thousands were placed on Shishkin in March last year for the QMCC this year?

[Bollinger]

Yes, simply, I do.

There are betting syndicates that would have played and placed 5 figure sums on him the moment he crossed the line. And there’d be several syndicates doing the same thing.

And punters should have been placing money on both him & Energumene well in advance of the Arkle last year.

But, in amongst millions of opinions, it is only mine.

[Bollinger]

The correlation between a (a very good) winner of the Arkle, followed by that horse at the very least placing in the following year’s Champion Chase is, I would suspect without any statistics being at hand, the greatest of all the festival races back to back.

I cannot think of two races,one of which produces a very suitable and favourable horse for 12 months hence, than the Arkle followed by a champion Chase.

And an Arkle in which has produced a horse that hits a 170 mark 3 times in his novice season.

[Istabraq]

Yes, simply, I do.

There are betting syndicates that would have played and placed 5 figure sums on him the moment he crossed the line

I’m intrigued as to where you can go to get five figure bets down…

[CJW]

I'm really interested to see if Energumene does go for the Clarence house, surely makes the journey as was target, spliting him and chacun up.

But I'll believe it when I see him on the day, probably discussed here already but what's the general consensus on the forum he turns up?

[FinalFurlong91]

I'm really interested to see if Energumene does go for the Clarence house, surely makes the journey as was target, spliting him and chacun up.

But I'll believe it when I see him on the day, probably discussed here already but what's the general consensus on the forum he turns up?

Given how the ground can get at the drf id be surprised if energumene didn't run at ascot

[Ray]

Yes, simply, I do.

There are betting syndicates that would have played and placed 5 figure sums on him the moment he crossed the line. And there’d be several syndicates doing the same thing.

And punters should have been placing money on both him & Energumene well in advance of the Arkle last year.

But, in amongst millions of opinions, it is only mine.

5 figure sums on a horse to win a race a year later..i cant see that happening..but maybe these rich people are actually thick

[Quevega]

5 figure sums on a horse to win a race a year later..i cant see that happening..but maybe these rich people are actually thick

I'd not want to be in a betting syndicate that took those types of risk.

But I couldn't rule this sort of thing happening, although I doubt it happens very often. I don't think the bookies antepost liabilities are very much in comparison to the day's betting itself.
So it's more a question of Bookies ripping people off.
As it's common place for short priced antepost horses to be bigger on the day, than they've been for many weeks of the year prior (this obviously depends on how the entries shake up), and they lay for a lot more at this time before cutting, as the markets are far more liquid.

[Bollinger]

I’m intrigued as to where you can go to get five figure bets down…

Ben Keith from Star Sports took that ?30k bet live on air with Matt Chapman on Defi du Seuil to win the Queen Mother @ 2/5 three years ago.

If Star Sport are taking 5 figure sums 15 mins before the off, you can bet your last pound they’d be extremely happy to take the same figure on any horse,any race 12 months out.

And there’ll be lots of betting syndicates who’ll be utilising methods & companies like this 12 months in advance.

[ComplyOrDie]

Ben Keith from Star Sports took that ?30k bet live on air with Matt Chapman on Defi du Seuil to win the Queen Mother @ 2/5 three years ago.

If Star Sport are taking 5 figure sums 15 mins before the off, you can bet your last pound they’d be extremely happy to take the same figure on any horse,any race 12 months out.

And there’ll be lots of betting syndicates who’ll be utilising methods & companies like this 12 months in advance.

On a 2/5 shot though

Liabilities of 12k is nothing on the actual day of racing!

[Istabraq]

Ben Keith from Star Sports took that ?30k bet live on air with Matt Chapman on Defi du Seuil to win the Queen Mother @ 2/5 three years ago.
.

The world of regulation has taken hold since then and trust me, as someone who has experienced this very recently, to get a five figured bet on you would have to prove income of at least seven figures.

Paul Merson hasn’t helped.

And how many of these bets do you think bookmakers will allow ?
Accounts get closed for winning pennies…