2022 Queen Mother Champion Chase

[Stormez]

Excellent, I'll look forward to that.

My take on it is 14/1 is an absolute no brainer of a price. I've missed out on her over and over again, never again!

It's incredible really that a HDB trained Arkle and QMCC winner with form figures around Cheltenham that reads 1111 is that price to retain her title.

I look at that price and think 'well she must be 9 going on 10', then realise she's 7 going on 8, so could even improve. I think 'she's going to have her work cut out vs high 160's or 170's horses' then realise she runs to a 160's+ RPR's at Cheltenham on the regular, and gets an invaluable 7lbs allowance that no other horse in the race will have.

Her battling qualities tip her over the edge. The mistake she made at the 3rd last would end most races there and then, but she keeps going. She gets headed by an odds on supposed monster, but she keeps going to battle it out. Her love of that hill is worth its weight in gold, and she does her winning at Cheltenham at 6/1, 16/1, 7/4 and 9/1. She is constantly underestimated by the bookmakers, and they need to be punished.

The elephants in the room are clearly Shishkin and Energumene. The latter has to make it back from injury, prove he's up to this level, handle cheltenham and has to actually go for the race, so he wouldn't enter my mind at the moment. 5/1 about him vs 14/1 about PTKO is an advert for how ante post markets are these days - it's ludicrous IMO that he's nearly 3 times shorter in price. Shishkin is obviously a complete tool and will be very hard to beat.

With both of them waiting in the wings along with a few others, (who never all make it), the price that appeals most is PTKO to place @ 11/4 with Skybet.
Every time I fancy a horse at even's or similarly short (which isn't often), I double it with this which gives around 6/1. Hopefully it pays off.

I must have missed it Charlie, but what injury did Energumene have post Punchestown?

[Bollinger]

I must have missed it Charlie, but what injury did Energumene have post Punchestown?

Energumene bolted up at Punchestown 6 weeks after his ‘injury’ and looks, according to quotes, laid out for the Champion Chase, Charlie??

[charlie]

Energumene bolted up at Punchestown 6 weeks after his ‘injury’ and looks, according to quotes, laid out for the Champion Chase, Charlie??

Error - I thought he took a knock. Brain fart. OP corrected. Still a shit price.

[callhimgamblor]

He is running in some random flat race over in France tonight.

[Saxon Warrior]

Following some excellent data from charlie

I've have looked at the recent race planning of 11 Grade 1 Race winners

One thing stood out to me in relation to the QMCC winners, in recent years.

6 of the last 8 QMCC Winners ran in the Schloer Chase (Listed up to Grade 2 level during that time period)

1 of the last 8 QMCC Winners ran in the Tingle Creek, instead of the Schloer

The missing Winner in those 8 years, was Altior who was injured and didt run until February.

Something to think about when we follow the Schloer entries and decs, then watch the race this weekend.

[Istabraq]

6 of the last 8 QMCC Winners ran in the Schloer Chase (Listed up to Grade 2 level during that time period)

1 of the last 8 QMCC Winners ran in the Tingle Creek, instead of the Schloer

[/COLOR]

If I hadn't read that from such a reliable source I wouldn't have believed it.
I would genuinely have believed the reverse, 6 x Tingle Creek and 1 x Schloer...

[FinalFurlong91]

Excellent, I'll look forward to that.

My take on it is 14/1 about PTKO is an absolute no brainer of a price. I've missed out on her over and over again, never again!

It's incredible really that a HDB trained Arkle and QMCC winner with form figures around Cheltenham that reads 1111 is that price to retain her title.

I look at that price and think 'well she must be 9 going on 10', then realise she's 7 going on 8, so could even improve. I think 'she's going to have her work cut out vs high 160's or 170's horses' then realise she runs to a 160's+ RPR's at Cheltenham on the regular, and gets an invaluable 7lbs allowance that no other horse in the race will have.

Her battling qualities tip her over the edge. The mistake she made at the 3rd last would end most races there and then, but she keeps going. She gets headed by an odds on supposed monster, but she keeps going to battle it out. Her love of that hill is worth its weight in gold, and she does her winning at Cheltenham at 6/1, 16/1, 7/4 and 9/1. She is constantly underestimated by the bookmakers, and they need to be punished.

The elephants in the room are clearly Shishkin and Energumene. The latter has to prove he's up to this level, handle cheltenham and has to actually go for the race, so he wouldn't enter my mind at the moment. 5/1 about him vs 14/1 about PTKO is an advert for how ante post markets are these days - it's ludicrous IMO that he's nearly 3 times shorter in price. Shishkin is obviously a complete tool and will be very hard to beat.

With both of them waiting in the wings along with a few others, (who never all make it), the price that appeals most is PTKO to place @ 11/4 with Skybet.
Every time I fancy a horse at even's or similarly short (which isn't often), I double it with this which gives around 6/1. Hopefully it pays off.

Surely her winning SPs suggest its unnecessary backing her ante post as you'll get a nice price on the day and then have zero injury worries

[Quevega]

Surely her winning SPs suggest its unnecessary backing her ante post as you'll get a nice price on the day and then have zero injury worries

I agree with this.
Especially this year as she's unlikely to beat anything of note and is probably going to lose along the way.
Whereas her three strongest challengers will probably all enhance their odds.
Obviously she could bolt up next week and win a grade 1 in Ireland, but history/form suggests not.

[charlie]

Surely her winning SPs suggest its unnecessary backing her ante post as you'll get a nice price on the day and then have zero injury worries

It's a fair point, but I don't think she'll go 'under the radar' the way she has in previous years. Cat is well and truly out the back on this one. Its kind of irrelevant anyway from my point of view though as I'm using her 11/4 to place as my main string of bets and there is no way that will be available then.

[callhimgamblor]

I mean.... I assume energumene is simply there for a run out pipe opener? 11/1 with b365 and 6th of 11 in the list.... Odd ...

[PresentingPercy]

I mean.... I assume energumene is simply there for a run out pipe opener? 11/1 with b365 and 6th of 11 in the list.... Odd ...

Different horse running tonight in France

[callhimgamblor]

I honestly didn't think that was allowed. Bet365 literally identified it as the same Energumene I have starred in "My Horses" there. Glitch much. May screen grab and tweet them.

[callhimgamblor]

https://twitter.com/callhimgamblor/status/1457784591331127301?t=tMcfQJ7j7hgJZipA8RphuQ&s=19

[Lobos]

The wonderful Kettle....

De Bromhead said: "Put The Kettle On is in really good form. She did a piece of work last week and I was very happy with it so all roads lead to the Shloer on Sunday. She seems to love Cheltenham and won the race last year so it has always been on her agenda."

[taylorch1990]

Apologies if this has already been mentioned but on the racingtv YouTube Ruby Walsh had put his 10 to follow and on it confirms Chacun will run in the tingle creek against Shiskin.