2022 Queen Mother Champion Chase

[Outlaw]

Keep banging that drum Lobos

Willie is keeping his options open, nothing more - 'I'd imagine the Ryanair would look odds-on for him again this year' - so he is spelling out his intentions.

I'm not worried about Willie's team and what goes where with a view to Allaho. The difference between a proper 2 miler and a very good horse that can run over 2 miles is night and day IMO, and that was painfully evident LTO. RB clearly wanted to try the Ryanair tactics on Allaho but it was evident quickly that it wasn't going to work.
CPS has a higher cruising speed and is more comfortable over his fences at that speed. RB was niggling quite far out as Allaho was out of his comfort zone and Willie will know this. I'd be confident at least 2 of his are more comfortable over 2m than Allaho, and thats just his, before factoring in other 2 milers.

Of course, it's not inconceivable that a horse of Allaho's ability could drop back in trip, but it's highly unlikely. He's simply not seen as a 2 miler. His run LTO was a 'nothing to lose' exercise and he achieved what he always has running under 2m4f, he didn't win. Aside from WPM having better options and Allaho not looking good enough over 2m, Willie is a creature of habit. Allaho won the race of the season award because he was phenomenal in the Ryanair. Willie sent Min back out to win another Ryanair and it would be completely against Willies character to abandon a race he knows he can win.

Whilst WPM has never won the race and that might be on his mind, the 'he's never won the QMCC before' and 'he'll want the race on his CV' chat is complete nonsense in the context of sending a horse down a route it's not best suited to. IMO, of course.

Articulating well of late Charlie, half expecting you to be sat at home wearing a peruke and have a signing off comment under every post saying "all be seated"

[charlie]

Articulating well of late Charlie, half expecting you to be sat at home wearing a peruke and have a signing off comment under every post saying "all be seated"

HAHAHAHAH

[Lobos]

Might make a difference if Envoi goes Ryanair possibly. With A Plus Tard in the GC , Allaho would then fit nicely for Cheveley into the Champion Chase. Willie has several others that could fill the gap in the Ryanair for him as well. All very intriguing.

[Eggs]

….I just wonder with the high-profile of Envoi make it more likely to be a choice between Champion Chase or Gold Cup. Thinking both races carry more prestige than Ryanair and the owners might prefer a tilt at one of those.

[charlie]

….I just wonder with the high-profile of Envoi make it more likely to be a choice between Champion Chase or Gold Cup. Thinking both races carry more prestige than Ryanair and the owners might prefer a tilt at one of those.

Important not to forget of how the owners treat NH racing. Of course CPS want winners, but when asked if he was going to be at Cheltenham to watch Envoi Allen, Chris Richardson (racing manager) said no cause he had flat breeding stuff to do. My guess if they'll wait and see come March. Lobos idea that they'll all be separated out so they neatly slot into place is not one I subscribe too. Separating talented horses is of course important, but WPM will place horses over trips that are their optimum, and definitely won't have his hand forced by a CPS.

[charlie]

Articulating well of late Charlie, half expecting you to be sat at home wearing a peruke and have a signing off comment under every post saying "all be seated"

Did I not before?

[callhimgamblor]

So.... Energumene for this then.

[ToniC]

Them deciding to pack in with the national hunt game when David Thompson died as I think it was him really who had the passion for the NH horses would make me think they wouldn’t have any qualms about running him in the Ryanair tbh. Would say they probably take the view of it just being another grade 1.

[JamieSensible]

Nube Negra.

25/1 best price available.

7 years old with huge scope for improvement this season. The horse clearly has a bit of toe just watching last years race back. Stamina may be an issue as seen in his Punchestown defeat however, theres two value options for me.
Nube Negra In a sprint finish, or Chacun galloping the field to death.

Chacun still available at 6/1 which is too short for me in a Single, however I would include in multiples.

Am I crazy? do we think last years renewal was weak?

[Brooksie]

Nube Negra.

25/1 best price available.

7 years old with huge scope for improvement this season. The horse clearly has a bit of toe just watching last years race back. Stamina may be an issue as seen in his Punchestown defeat however, theres two value options for me.
Nube Negra In a sprint finish, or Chacun galloping the field to death.

Chacun still available at 6/1 which is too short for me in a Single, however I would include in multiples.

Am I crazy? do we think last years renewal was weak?

I do like the horse, he was my bet in last seasons QM, and if given a better ride would have won the race in my opinion. However, his ability to finish so strong was largely down to the race being run at a crawl. Chacun will not be hanging about this season, and you have Energumene that will want to be handy too. You'll need something that stays well and Nube isn't going to fit that mold. I see him travelling well then finding little come 2 or 3 out, similar to how it played out at Punchestown. He jumps so well though, probably best out of all the 2 milers

[Lobos]

Nube Negra to take on Kettle in the Shloer chase on Sunday.

[Spectre]

Thoughts on both of them might just come up on a podcast somewhere next week!

[Saxon Warrior]

Thoughts on both of them might just come up on a podcast somewhere next week!

Be good to base them around the Decs for Cheltenham and Fairyhouse next weekend.

An awful lot of good horses running over those meetings.

[Eggs]

….Sky offer 20-1 PTKO winning Schloer/CC.

[charlie]

Thoughts on both of them might just come up on a podcast somewhere next week!

Excellent, I'll look forward to that.

My take on it is 14/1 about PTKO is an absolute no brainer of a price. I've missed out on her over and over again, never again!

It's incredible really that a HDB trained Arkle and QMCC winner with form figures around Cheltenham that reads 1111 is that price to retain her title.

I look at that price and think 'well she must be 9 going on 10', then realise she's 7 going on 8, so could even improve. I think 'she's going to have her work cut out vs high 160's or 170's horses' then realise she runs to a 160's+ RPR's at Cheltenham on the regular, and gets an invaluable 7lbs allowance that no other horse in the race will have.

Her battling qualities tip her over the edge. The mistake she made at the 3rd last would end most races there and then, but she keeps going. She gets headed by an odds on supposed monster, but she keeps going to battle it out. Her love of that hill is worth its weight in gold, and she does her winning at Cheltenham at 6/1, 16/1, 7/4 and 9/1. She is constantly underestimated by the bookmakers, and they need to be punished.

The elephants in the room are clearly Shishkin and Energumene. The latter has to prove he's up to this level, handle cheltenham and has to actually go for the race, so he wouldn't enter my mind at the moment. 5/1 about him vs 14/1 about PTKO is an advert for how ante post markets are these days - it's ludicrous IMO that he's nearly 3 times shorter in price. Shishkin is obviously a complete tool and will be very hard to beat.

With both of them waiting in the wings along with a few others, (who never all make it), the price that appeals most is PTKO to place @ 11/4 with Skybet.
Every time I fancy a horse at even's or similarly short (which isn't often), I double it with this which gives around 6/1. Hopefully it pays off.