2022 Queen Mother Champion Chase

[Istabraq]

I think Edwardstone is 'exactly' why they gave Energumene 171 for the race, and not because either rating is accurate.

Whilst I get the point of taking a rating from a current rating of other horses, they in fact have ratings that stop them winning. In the case of Sizing Potsie and Daly Tiger the maximum winning mark I can give either is 149. Sizing Potsie would have been no more than 4 lentgths off Energumene without his mistake, and he simply isn't capable of running anywhere near the 159 rating he would have got. Daly Tiger is also 6lbs too high in my estimation.

For the record I have Energumene running to 165 yesterday, and immediately I saw the 171 rating he was given I thought of the Edwardstone rating, and how they made a rod for their own back with that one.

Entirely off topic, and agreeing with everything you have said, they (RP) created a rod for their own back by giving Third Time Lucki 156 on chase debut when beating a group of average animals and his only credible opponent spent most of the back straight heading for the gardens.
The 164 awarded to Edwardstone on his second chase completion is bordering diabolical, this is a horse who unlike many Arkle contenders down the years had two years hurdling so it's easier to assess his overall abilities, nine hurdle runs and a top RPR of 152, suddenly he's improved 12lb for fences ?
We all know the RPRs are often debatable but that 164 given to Edwardstone makes him a better rated chaser than Sprinter Sacre after two completed chase starts....

[That Horse]

Don't see this posted anywhere else on the forum but there's a paywall article on the RP, saying;

--
Envoi Allen may take a marked drop in trip over the Christmas period, according to Cheveley Park Stud's Chris Richardson.....Richardson said: "I don't know whether Envoi Allen remembered the misfortune that he had when at Punchestown previously or whether he just wasn't quite 100 per cent on song.
"It's possible we're beginning to find out more accurately at what level he's going to be, having been such a wonderful, progressive horse up until now.

"He came out of the race fine, Henry [de Bromhead] was happy with him. Rachael [Blackmore] just said that he didn't really grasp the bit as he did last time."
--
Goes on to say that Allaho making the running wouldn't have played to EA's strengths and they're considering dropping EA down to 2m1f grade 1 at Leopardstown at Christmas.

[Pendil]

Envoi @ 25/1 (28/1 boosted) with Lads for the Champion Chase

[DenmanSacre]

Might get the Energumene Envoi clash we wanted last year

[Rooster Booster]

Isn’t dropping in trip something you consider for a horse that doesn’t let go of the bit rather than one that doesn’t grasp it? Surely they need to fix that before they decide on trip otherwise dropping in trip makes it worse not better doesn’t it? I am obviously wrong as they know a million times more than me but I am confused.

[Spectre]

I'd be more inclined to give him a spin over hurdles over a mid-trip to see where he's at.

I've never seen him as a stayer anyway, and was never sweet on him for the Gold Cup (I suspect I'll feel the same about Bob O next season), and that run over fences looked like a horse that is either not in love with fences/not putting it all in, or is feeling something. Given the lack of depth in the hurdles division he could perhaps become interesting again if he puts in a decent performance over timber. He's bred for shorter trips and he was very smart in bumpers and over hurdles. Don't forget he's still unbeaten and unexposed over hurdles, so perhaps he could be a wild card in a very weak looking Champion Hurdle.

[Rooster Booster]

I'd be more inclined to give him a spin over hurdles over a mid-trip to see where he's at.

I've never seen him as a stayer anyway, and was never sweet on him for the Gold Cup (I suspect I'll feel the same about Bob O next season), and that run over fences looked like a horse that is either not in love with fences/not putting it all in, or is feeling something. Given the lack of depth in the hurdles division he could perhaps become interesting again if he puts in a decent performance over timber. He's bred for shorter trips and he was very smart in bumpers and over hurdles. Don't forget he's still unbeaten and unexposed over hurdles, so perhaps he could be a wild card in a very weak looking Champion Hurdle.

That certainly makes a lot more sense...surely a horse not grasping the bit is indicative of a problem unrelated to trip. If the issue is the discipline then I’d be getting a little nervous if I was the one who had laid him at 270/280 for the CH.

P.s as I know you were reflecting on your stance ...not sure if you saw my ballymore post but largy debut has been put in the ballymore by PP at 16s.

[Spectre]

P.s as I know you were reflecting on your stance ...not sure if you saw my ballymore post but largy debut has been put in the ballymore by PP at 16s.

I decided for now it's best to cover him for both races, so I took the 16's Supreme and 20's Ballymore with 365.

Having him in both books make decisions easier based on future entries and perhaps his second run over hurdles without losing a price. There is some potential downside if he gets turned over, which is a risk with any horse in my book, but in the meantime I can see what connections say before his next race and judge the general vibes and likely opposition.

Also, whilst the Ballymore personally appeals, his only Christmas entry is over two miles, and I have to balance what I think against what connections had been thinking when they made his entries.

It remains very possible that he can repeat the dose with Kilcruit, who was a long way clear of the third, and if so his price is too big for whichever race he turns up in. In some respects I'm quite surprised at his price, and that the overall feel on him is quite downbeat. I think it's very possible people are more focused on Kilcruit and their associated bets, and the assumption is that Kilcruit massively underperformed, without considering the possibility Largy Debut could be top draw.

[Exar Essay]

I decided for now it's best to cover him for both races, so I took the 16's Supreme and 20's Ballymore with 365.

I've done the same. I appreciate the jockey said Largy could step up to 2 and half no bother, but to my viewing, it was a great trial for the Supreme. High cruising speed and really outstayed Kilcruit. Reminiscent of AI in last years Supreme. I've taken the 20's in the Ballymore as cover, but he really seemed a 2 miler to me and I think 16s is very generous after that performance.

[OscarWhisky]

Why go up in trip? He's just beaten the ante post favourite for the Supreme and looked to have gears. If he was mine I'd be aiming at 2 miles and only going up in distance if beaten.

[thorne365]

I think Edwardstone is 'exactly' why they gave Energumene 171 for the race, and not because either rating is accurate.

Whilst I get the point of taking a rating from a current rating of other horses, they in fact have ratings that stop them winning. In the case of Sizing Potsie and Daly Tiger the maximum winning mark I can give either is 149. Sizing Potsie would have been no more than 4 lentgths off Energumene without his mistake, and he simply isn't capable of running anywhere near the 159 rating he would have got. Daly Tiger is also 6lbs too high in my estimation.

For the record I have Energumene running to 165 yesterday, and immediately I saw the 171 rating he was given I thought of the Edwardstone rating, and how they made a rod for their own back with that one.

Rowlands seems to indicate higher than 171 [https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sec...-from-sandown]

'Energumene ran at least to the high-160s on ratings in winning, but sectional upgrading suggests he is much better than that. I am not sure even Shishkin could have gone eyeball to eyeball with a horse of Notebook’s calibre, going as fast as that one was going mid-race, and then kept on as well as the Willie Mullins-trained gelding did.'

[Spectre]

Rowlands seems to indicate higher than 171 [https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sec...-from-sandown]

'Energumene ran at least to the high-160s on ratings in winning, but sectional upgrading suggests he is much better than that. I am not sure even Shishkin could have gone eyeball to eyeball with a horse of Notebook’s calibre, going as fast as that one was going mid-race, and then kept on as well as the Willie Mullins-trained gelding did.'

The point he makes about Shishkin couldn't go eye ball to eye ball with Notebook and Shishkin makes no sense though. Shiskkin wouldn't attempt to. He'd simply let them do there own thing and then pick them up at the end of the race by running far more efficiently.

I like Simon Rowlands, but marking a horse up and increasing the rating because of a suicidal pace is fundamentally flawed in my opinion. How can running a race in a slower time as a consequence of going much too quick through the middle of the race possibly warrant this.

[thorne365]

very inefficient energy distribution in this meaning that he has a far higher time potential if running more efficiently. But i assume you know his premise so would like to understand your objections a bit more

[darlojim]

The point he makes about Shishkin couldn't go eye ball to eye ball with Notebook and Shishkin makes no sense though. Shiskkin wouldn't attempt to. He'd simply let them do there own thing and then pick them up at the end of the race by running far more efficiently.

I like Simon Rowlands, but marking a horse up and increasing the rating because of a suicidal pace is fundamentally flawed in my opinion. How can running a race in a slower time as a consequence of going much too quick through the middle of the race possibly warrant this.

Exactly this, Shishkin would be the 'Sizing Pottsie' in that race at Cork, running at his own pace ignoring whatever Energumene was doing in front, and imo picking him up late on whenevr asked to do so.

[thorne365]

Exactly this, Shishkin would be the 'Sizing Pottsie' in that race at Cork, running at his own pace ignoring whatever Energumene was doing in front, and imo picking him up late on whenevr asked to do so.

But you're assuming the exact same scenario [i.e. notebook trying to cut his throat] - the point is that without that happening he'd be able to run to a far higher figure