2022 Queen Mother Champion Chase

[Craigy14]

I mean hes scoped badly again not had a second wind op

Ah sorry, picked it up wrong mate.

I wouldn’t worry about that, I’d say even more so Hendo just putting folk away because he pulled him imo. Will anyone ever know he scoped bad? Some coincidence it happened the day of the race.

I think he’ll show up at Xmas at Kempton right as rain, if he doesn’t and the issue continues I’ll apologise on the forum to Hendo

[darlojim]

Ah sorry, picked it up wrong mate.

I wouldn’t worry about that, I’d say even more so Hendo just putting folk away because he pulled him imo. Will anyone ever know he scoped bad? Some coincidence it happened the day of the race.

I think he’ll show up at Xmas at Kempton right as rain, if he doesn’t and the issue continues I’ll apologise on the forum to Hendo

I agree with this, I think he's just said that as a 'see I told you something was wrong with him' so his withdrawal from the tingle creek looks justified. No one will ever know if there actually was or not but it does feel like a coincidence.

[Outlaw]

It was impressive first time up.

2nd is rated 157, beaten 8 and a half lengths receiving 8 pounds.
3rd is rated 155, beaten 10 lengths receiving 8 pounds.
Cashback rated 156 and beaten 18 lengths receiving 8 pounds.

Notebook tried to go with him and was smashed out of sight for trying.

His race was run incredibly inefficiently. From the 4th to the 8th, he ran about 20 lengths quicker than Concertista and paid for it towards the end. The others ran more efficiently and got nowhere near him.

It was a fairly big statement for the CC and was a much better performance than Greaneteen put out this weekend.

Shiahkin still needs to prove he is well but if they are both in top form at Cheltenham and run their race, it's going to be some clash.

Spot on, from the first time past the line to the first fence on that last circuit they really started to get racing early. Mr Rowlands will know doubt break it down in detail(already tweeted the interesting comparisons) but to go at what was clearly G1 pace for a large section of the race prematurely(would of been easy to fold like Notebook was impressive) with more expected to come on his next start( Mullins Spiel) It was a very smart foray into open company.

[Dessie the great]

It was impressive first time up.

2nd is rated 157, beaten 8 and a half lengths receiving 8 pounds.
3rd is rated 155, beaten 10 lengths receiving 8 pounds.
Cashback rated 156 and beaten 18 lengths receiving 8 pounds.

Notebook tried to go with him and was smashed out of sight for trying.

His race was run incredibly inefficiently. From the 4th to the 8th, he ran about 20 lengths quicker than Concertista and paid for it towards the end. The others ran more efficiently and got nowhere near him.

It was a fairly big statement for the CC and was a much better performance than Greaneteen put out this weekend.

Shiahkin still needs to prove he is well but if they are both in top form at Cheltenham and run their race, it's going to be some clash.

Can't agree that it was the big statement for the CC, 3 novice mares ran the same time as him. Notebook obviously ran way below his best (I don't think that was down to the pace they were going, was beaten 4 furlongs out) and the Potts horse who hardly jumped a fence looked like he was coming to do him at the 2nd last before he ploughed through another fence. A satisfactory performance and bound to come on for the run but will need to imo

[PresentingPercy]

Spot on, from the first time past the line to the first fence on that last circuit they really started to get racing early. Mr Rowlands will know doubt break it down in detail(already tweeted the interesting comparisons) but to go at what was clearly G1 pace for a large section of the race prematurely(would of been easy to fold like Notebook was impressive) with more expected to come on his next start( Mullins Spiel) It was a very smart foray into open company.

Sorry replied to wrong comment

[PresentingPercy]

Can't agree that it was the big statement for the CC, 3 novice mares ran the same time as him. Notebook obviously ran way below his best (I don't think that was down to the pace they were going, was beaten 4 furlongs out) and the Potts horse who hardly jumped a fence looked like he was coming to do him at the 2nd last before he ploughed through another fence. A satisfactory performance and bound to come on for the run but will need to imo

Carried 12lbs more than Concertista, just something extra to factor into your assumptions

[Dessie the great]

Carried 12lbs more than Concertista, just something extra to factor into your assumptions

Well 5lbs in reality as the mares would be getting 7lbs from him if they were to ever meet in a graded class race but I get your point. Still you would be expecting him to comfortably account for 3 novice mares on the clock if the performance was as good as some are making out

[Saxon Warrior]

Well 5lbs in reality as the mares would be getting 7lbs from him if they were to ever meet in a graded class race but I get your point. Still you would be expecting him to comfortably account for 3 novice mares on the clock if the performance was as good as some are making out

The best times are the most efficiently paced ones.

Same as athletics or cycling.

Anyone travelling too fast early but that still runs as well as those running efficiently has done very well.

Simon Rowlands and the time gurus would mark that up.

Just looking at basic race times and assuming one horse is as good as another from different races, can be misleading.

[Dessie the great]

The best times are the most efficiently paced ones.

Same as athletics or cycling.

Anyone travelling too fast early but that still runs as well as those running efficiently has done very well.

Simon Rowlands and the time gurus would mark that up.

Just looking at basic race times and assuming one horse is as good as another from different races, can be misleading.

I get that. I read that the Mares race was only 1 sec faster for the final circuit, which if true, suggests that their wasn't much in it in terms of early pace

[DenmanSacre]

I get that. I read that the Mares race was only 1 sec faster for the final circuit, which if true, suggests that their wasn't much in it in terms of early pace

That's probably timing it from Magic Daze crossing the line for the final circuit to Concertista winning it.

As I've said, Energumene ran very inefficiently, those behind ran more efficiently (though were also forced to go too quick mid race because of the front 2) and he still beat them handily. Those behind are high 150 horses who he gave 8 pounds to and a beating.

Notebook tried it from the front and Energumene destroyed him.

The one concern I may have for Energumene is that it seems quite easy to get him into a race and something else in the CC could get him to race early on and set it up for a closer, though I'm not sure any jockey would want to let him get too far ahead in that situation as he stays really well.

Concertista was slightly quicker overall but she also ran her sections quite evenly and let Magic Daze blow out up front.

As Saxon has said, Energumene should be upgraded for his run. It will be interesting to see what Simon Rowlands analysis is.

[jack1092]

Yep I think rowlands hinted at Concertista’s final 4f being 7seconds quicker, but I’d say that’s almost to be expected from the way the hilly way panned out.

[Spectre]

I thought that was an okay start from Energumene, but it certainly didn't merit a 171 RPR, and I'm a bit surprised people are getting excited over it.

It raises a significant question about what happens if he gets taken on for the lead at Cheltenham. After watching that I'd imagine Messrs Henderson, Nicholls, and Skelton will be looking to put something in the race to take him on for the lead and disrupt him.

If that race had been the Champion Chase Shishkin would have sat off the pace and then cruised past him. Sizing Potsie who wouldn't win off a 150 mark would have gone close if he hadn't made a bad mistake at the last, and how they came up with 171 is beyond me. I suggest whoever produced the rating should re-rate the race having slept on it.

I agree that the comparison to the mares novice chase isn't worth making. The context doesn't work because of how the Energumene race was run.

[DenmanSacre]

I thought that was an okay start from Energumene, but it certainly didn't merit a 171 RPR, and I'm a bit surprised people are getting excited over it.

It raises a significant question about what happens if he gets taken on for the lead at Cheltenham. After watching that I'd imagine Messrs Henderson, Nicholls, and Skelton will be looking to put something in the race to take him on for the lead and disrupt him.

If that race had been the Champion Chase Shishkin would have sat off the pace and then cruised past him. Sizing Potsie who wouldn't win off a 150 mark would have gone close if he hadn't made a bad mistake at the last, and how they came up with 171 is beyond me. I suggest whoever produced the rating should re-rate the race having slept on it.

I agree that the comparison to the mares novice chase isn't worth making. The context doesn't work because of how the Energumene race was run.

171 is pretty easy to come back to from a form point of view. Carried 8 pounds more and beat mid 150s horses by 8+ lengths. From a form and RPR perspective it makes sense. Also matches his Punchestown win and they haven't increased his rating.

Sizing Pottsie did win a handicap chase off 149 by 6 lengths last December so mid 150s for him isn't too big a shout. Daly Tiger also won a handicap off 147 in January by 5 lengths which was comfortable so again mid 150s is a fair enough mark.

If Shishkin was in the race, do you think NDB would let Energumene go 15-20 lengths clear? Likely he would have followed as it would be a big gamble by NDB not to follow.

I do agree though that the danger is him racing too early with a spoiler. Politilogue may be the one to take it from the front with him?

[Istabraq]

I thought that was an okay start from Energumene, but it certainly didn't merit a 171 RPR, and I'm a bit surprised people are getting excited over it.
.

I think they had to give him a rating around the 170 mark, Edwardstone was given 164 for his Henry VIII win on Saturday, and that was just his second completed chase start…

[Spectre]

I think Edwardstone is 'exactly' why they gave Energumene 171 for the race, and not because either rating is accurate.

Whilst I get the point of taking a rating from a current rating of other horses, they in fact have ratings that stop them winning. In the case of Sizing Potsie and Daly Tiger the maximum winning mark I can give either is 149. Sizing Potsie would have been no more than 4 lentgths off Energumene without his mistake, and he simply isn't capable of running anywhere near the 159 rating he would have got. Daly Tiger is also 6lbs too high in my estimation.

For the record I have Energumene running to 165 yesterday, and immediately I saw the 171 rating he was given I thought of the Edwardstone rating, and how they made a rod for their own back with that one.