2022 Queen Mother Champion Chase

[KingSprinterSacre]

I dont even know where to start with that run today from Chacun.
i turned to my Da before halfway and said he was beat (my Da isnt a horse racing man so thought i was mad talking about the horse leading). I expected a really aggressive ride but the others were lying up with him comfortable and his jumping wasnt his usual gain a length landing running.
Not sure i can agree with regression, you dont go from that run at punchestown to that today 7 months later. Hoping something comes to light (minor) because it would be a shame if thats truly where hes at now.

[jono]

This race is over hyped too this year. Gutted I missed the podcast where Spectre and Jono were gushing about it.

Are you excited about any race this year?

[Carnage at Taunton]

The winner is rated 14lb better than Hitman and Captain Guinness pre-race, and beat them 5L.

Theres no improvement required to beat them by that distance.

So the race for me, has produced no 170+ horse, and no Champion-elect, on todays performances.

I couldn’t back any of them on what they did there, and their current prices for the Queen Mum.

I was impressed with Greanateen, certainly would not dismiss him after watching that. As for the price, about right imo, especially the way the race is looking right now.

[Kevloaf]

Are you excited about any race this year?

The John Durkan today

[Saxon Warrior]

I was impressed with Greanateen, certainly would not dismiss him after watching that. As for the price, about right imo, especially the way the race is looking right now.

The winner ran his race.
He was 4lb better than last seasons 3nd in the Tingle Creek (btn 7l by Politologue).

The race rating (RPR) by the Tingle Creek winner was better than PTKO (+7 added on) pit up to win the QMCC three months later.

The 2nd and 3rd improved a little for running in top open company yesterday.

The winner should need to better it in March to improve on last seasons placing.

Unless the others at the top of the market underperform or don't turn up.

He could take advantage of any weakness in them, like he did today.

....and not all Champion Chases need to be won by a 170+ performance.
3 in the last decade only needed 169 or 170.

It did look like this seasons might need much more than that, until recent weeks.
Its going to take Shishkin or Energumene to step up now to make it a requirement for an above average performance to be needed win in March.

The stars could align for yesterday's winner.

[Carnage at Taunton]

The winner ran his race.
He was 4lb better than last seasons 3nd in the Tingle Creek (btn 7l by Politologue).

The race rating (RPR) by the Tingle Creek winner was better than PTKO (+7 added on) pit up to win the QMCC three months later.

The 2nd and 3rd improved a little for running in top open company yesterday.

The winner should need to better it in March to improve on last seasons placing.

Unless the others at the top of the market underperform or don't turn up.

He could take advantage of any weakness in them, like he did today.

....and not all Champion Chases need to be won by a 170+ performance.
3 in the last decade only needed 169 or 170.

It did look like this seasons might need much more than that, until recent weeks.
Its going to take Shishkin or Energumene to step up now to make it a requirement for an above average performance to be needed win in March.

The stars could align for yesterday's winner.

CPS doubts right now, Shishkin doubts right now, NN poor yesterday.
He looks still on the up to me.
The stars could certainly align.

[Irish Rugby]

I think Paul Nicholls is doing a very good job at having his star performers (Clan Des Obeaux at Punchestown, Frodon/Down Royal and again twice now Grenateen at Sandown) cherry ripe for Grade 1s outside of the Cheltenham Festival. He knows that the Irish trainers mindset is that these races are not their targets, and are only stepping stones to Cheltenham. He's exploiting that with some success. He's getting Grade 1 pots for his owners and even showing he can pop over the Irish sea and come back with the trophy. And probably ensuring the GB Trainers title to boot.

As AP punters for Cheltenham, that gives us a dilemma. What does he bring to Cheltenham? You would think at present, that includes Bravemansgame, but what else?

[Atlantic Viking]

That was lovely from Energumene, as you'd expect at the price but still... he coasted along for the most of it. Still think i'd rather have Shishkin but he'll be a more than worthy contender if they both turn up.

[Winging The Last]

I would have Energumene favourite for this over Shishkin.

Shishkin has course form by is performance at Aintree where he was nearly beaten by a horse that was beaten today by First Flow isn't fantastic form. Plus Hendos recent comments about Shiskin being very concerned about his health aren't great

[Kevloaf]

I would have Energumene favourite for this over Shishkin.

Shishkin has course form by is performance at Aintree where he was nearly beaten by a horse that was beaten today by First Flow isn't fantastic form. Plus Hendos recent comments about Shiskin being very concerned about his health aren't great

Recency bias in full flow?



5/2 now, with Shishkin to beat.
Allaho 5/2 for the Ryanair, with nothing new to beat?


Rightful fav or not, not interesting at all for a bet IMO

[DenmanSacre]

Preferred Energumene last season and that performance was a great pipe opener. In Shishkins court now (if we see him)

[Winging The Last]

Recency bias in full flow?

You have to admit what has be beaten over fences so far?

Mick Pastor
Tamaroc Du Mathan
Eldorado Allen
Funambule Sivola

Shouldn't be that short a favouite based on that

[Lobos]

No doubt he's very good but there will always be question marks for me re him jumping left handed in a top race, how he'll handle faster ground and the fact he's never travelled across the water.

[Carnage at Taunton]

You have to admit what has be beaten over fences so far?

Mick Pastor
Tamaroc Du Mathan
Eldorado Allen
Funambule Sivola

Shouldn't be that short a favouite based on that

I think hes the price he is because of the way HE performs, not the ones he beats. And to be fair aside from his last run,which was pretty comfortable, hes beaten those other horses by big distances.
Do think Energumene is a big danger though.

[Atlantic Viking]

You have to admit what has be beaten over fences so far?

Mick Pastor
Tamaroc Du Mathan
Eldorado Allen
Funambule Sivola

Shouldn't be that short a favouite based on that

He beat a decent Supreme though when he'd have had some fair excuses in running if he hadn't. I don't think anything should be as a short as he has been for so long, but on all we know he is the rightful favourite. I love Energumene but he has more questions to answer at this stage. Although showing his soundness is a decent point on the board i'll admit...