If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Announcement
Collapse
Fat Jockey Patrons
Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated. Become a Patron!
One of the Reasons Altior never hit monster numbers was his style of winning was late surge so was governed by what he was beating. He might never of needed to be better than low 160’s regular but that’s not to say he couldn’t of pulled out more if the calibre of opposition was better. He’s a legend end of
I love em, and use them all the time for assessment, but.............on occasion........you've highlighted the danger of taking RPR's too literally.
One of the Reasons Altior never hit monster numbers was his style of winning was late surge so was governed by what he was beating. He might never of needed to be better than low 160’s regular but that’s not to say he couldn’t of pulled out more if the calibre of opposition was better. He’s a legend end of
100% agree with this. What was the point of trying to win a race from 2 out when you know you get up the hill better than almost any horse in history. It’s like mo farah he never won by much never did flashy times and there are probably dozens ahead of him in the all time fastest over 5 and 10k but he just out kicked anybody and did it every single time. MFs rprs would never be great but nobody could beat him.
100% agree with this. What was the point of trying to win a race from 2 out when you know you get up the hill better than almost any horse in history. It’s like mo farah he never won by much never did flashy times and there are probably dozens ahead of him in the all time fastest over 5 and 10k but he just out kicked anybody and did it every single time. MFs rprs would never be great but nobody could beat him.
Don’t think that’s the reason nobody could beat him!
I love em, and use them all the time for assessment, but.............on occasion........you've highlighted the danger of taking RPR's too literally.
I love curry, Chelsea and my daughter not necessarily in that order but rprs while indicative and directional for me are somewhere on the like rather than love spectrum....but that’s a whole other debate that I assume has happened many times on here historically.
I love curry, Chelsea and my daughter not necessarily in that order but rprs while indicative and directional for me are somewhere on the like rather than love spectrum....but that’s a whole other debate that I assume has happened many times on here historically.
They are really useful if used in the right way. You have to apply race-reading to it too. But what you can't ignore is when horses post big ratings consistently.
Altior is the wrong horse to use for this debate, because he consistently hit the 170's and even posted a 180.
I'd be more inclined to use a horse like Brave Inca who only ever did what he had to and mostly posted ratings in the 160's. But even he did a 170 and 171 when he had to.
Using RPR's with unexposed horses is really useful combined with race reading. Take Fil Dor who runs this weekend for example. He posted a 134 on debut at Down Royal which is a high base, but he did it unextended, which suggests he can be capable of going into the 140's soon. Quilixios posted 133 first up and was quickly into the 140's and peaked at 149. That's good enough to win every Triumph for the last decade. What we don't know yet is whether In This World is Quilixios, and Fil Dor is Zanahiyr. Or whether something else can start from a similarly high base. It would be unusual to have three horses in one season, but not impossible.
I love Curry, Cov City, and my three daughters, not necessarily in that order, but I spend more time with RPR's than any of them!
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
They are really useful if used in the right way. You have to apply race-reading to it too. But what you can't ignore is when horses post big ratings consistently.
Altior is the wrong horse to use for this debate, because he consistently hit the 170's and even posted a 180.
I'd be more inclined to use a horse like Brave Inca who only ever did what he had to and mostly posted ratings in the 160's. But even he did a 170 and 171 when he had to.
Using RPR's with unexposed horses is really useful combined with race reading. Take Fil Dor who runs this weekend for example. He posted a 134 on debut at Down Royal which is a high base, but he did it unextended, which suggests he can be capable of going into the 140's soon. Quilixios posted 133 first up and was quickly into the 140's and peaked at 149. That's good enough to win every Triumph for the last decade. What we don't know yet is whether In This World is Quilixios, and Fil Dor is Zanahiyr. Or whether something else can start from a similarly high base. It would be unusual to have three horses in one season, but not impossible.
I love Curry, Cov City, and my three daughters, not necessarily in that order, but I spend more time with RPR's than any of them!
I hear you and largely agree and it’s only around the edges that we possibly differ.
Tbh if a horse is consistently posting high rprs then it will be known to everyone man woman and dog. Very few of us at that point care whether he or she posted a 173 or a 175 lto that’s what I mean by indicative or directional it’s just a consistently good horse based on past history, the job in hand is then to predict its next rpr if you like and that requires a whole host of variables to be considered as we all know. Not just race reading but trainer form, going assessment, jockey bookings, course suitability, days since last run, blah blah blah. I know you do this and know this but it is far more than race reading imo which I took to mean pace angles, trip etc when you referred to it.
with regard to unexposed horses I think there are likely to be countless examples where unexposed horses improve at very different rates. Of course at the extreme high end it is going to be highly indicative, e.g if a 3 year old posts a 138 first time out for example but in the vast majority of cases this doesn’t happen and so if faced with two horses having their second run, one of which posted a 118 last time and the other a 120 I would consider that no more than of average use and work hard on all the other variables hence why for me they are largely indicative and directional which for me is a like not a love but a likethat’s all. Obviously at the extreme high end the relationship is stronger but in those instances everybody knows anyway (even flat man Jason Weaver knows all about them) so again their incremental value is limited.
I think the reason Altior is often cited is not because people question whether he was a 170+ horse but because many people use rprs as a stick to beat him with compared with other best of the bests (particularly sprinter and Douvan And I have also seen master minded , Moscow and a few others thrown in to the debate) I suspect though could well be wrong he might not even hit the top 10 2 milers in the last 3 decades on rprs???...in the same way as many people question whether mo farah was as good as people say when he never posted any good times.
I am talking semantics here I score rprs a 6.5 possibly7 out of 10, perhaps you or others score them an 8 or 9. Some may be lower than me. It’s the whole art v science thing. Some humans believe the past is the best predictor of the future some believe the past has to be locked in the cupboard if true originality is to blossom and we should never lose sight of the fact that our job is to predict the future not replay the past.
Sorry I know this is a Queen mum thread but it is an rpr point (which also isn’t Queen mum so forgive me again )I think buzz will win the stayers. I said in an earlier post he reminds me of rooster booster profile wise only . There is no point waiting for proof of that because it will be too late and almost is tbh..I think he is on a late but rapid rise which I don’t expect to be that long lived. This cannot be proven and nobody that values rprs an 8 or more out of 10 would find that easy to rationalise or get behind my position as it is more intuitive or art as I like to call it than fact driven. It’s certainly not rpr driven as you yourself pointed out he needs to fine a stone. I cannot argue with that how can I the numbers are the numbers. I think he is on a fast upward curve I am convinced he will improve significantly for a step up in trip and if he can handle Newmarket( going away again as soon as he met the rise ) which is very tricky I am confident he can handle Cheltenham.
I wish nobody had mentioned Curry I meant to be losing weight
That's a well considered response RB. You highlight the areas where we differ, and that's fair enough. I accept using ratings has flaws, and it's possible for all the reasons you state Buzz could be one of them. As part of my approach I accept that the Buzz's of the world come along every so often and if they win you have to suck it up. Sometimes your gut is right and logic fails.
That's why I spend so much time on the puzzle, and why I'm essentially addicted to the detail. But I'm long in the tooth enough now to also trust my instincts, just as you do with horses like Buzz. You kind of have to anyway if you're going to call yourself Rooster Booster who was one of the biggest ratings defyers ever!
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
That's a well considered response RB. You highlight the areas where we differ, and that's fair enough. I accept using ratings has flaws, and it's possible for all the reasons you state Buzz could be one of them. As part of my approach I accept that the Buzz's of the world come along every so often and if they win you have to suck it up. Sometimes your gut is right and logic fails.
That's why I spend so much time on the puzzle, and why I'm essentially addicted to the detail. But I'm long in the tooth enough now to also trust my instincts, just as you do with horses like Buzz. You kind of have to anyway if you're going to call yourself Rooster Booster who was one of the biggest ratings defyers ever!
Yes as a rational maverick as I like to think of myself (paradoxical I know) Rooster was always going to be my number one .please keep up the great work on the podcasts et al
him and shiskin ran to similar levels last year but energumene is a much bigger price
With the news that shiskin isn't sparkling at home its starting to look like the option in this race
Anyone know if gavin lynch put him up on upping the ante for the arkle last season? Wouldn't be surprised if he was his selection this week then bam he's 7/2 everywhere
Skelton says Nube Negra will definitely run in the Tingle Creek. Game On !
Third Time Lucki likely to join him on trip to Sandown and run in Henry V111
This guy is starting to get the ammunition now, if this snowballs over the next few years which I expect it to then this is going to be one hell of a ride. My dream scenario is this fella gets to his peak 1 to 2 years and the Irish stay at their current level then we finally have a once in a lifetime scenario.
he has guts, talent and attitude it should be one hell of a show.
We process personal data about users of our site, through the use of cookies and other technologies, to deliver our services, personalize advertising, and to analyze site activity. We may share certain information about our users with our advertising and analytics partners. For additional details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
By clicking "I AGREE" below, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our personal data processing and cookie practices as described therein. You also acknowledge that this forum may be hosted outside your country and you consent to the collection, storage, and processing of your data in the country where this forum is hosted.
Obviously at the extreme high end the relationship is stronger but in those instances everybody knows anyway (even flat man Jason Weaver knows all about them) so again their incremental value is limited.
)I think buzz will win the stayers. I said in an earlier post he reminds me of rooster booster profile wise only . There is no point waiting for proof of that because it will be too late and almost is tbh..I think he is on a late but rapid rise which I don’t expect to be that long lived. This cannot be proven and nobody that values rprs an 8 or more out of 10 would find that easy to rationalise or get behind my position as it is more intuitive or art as I like to call it than fact driven. It’s certainly not rpr driven as you yourself pointed out he needs to fine a stone. I cannot argue with that how can I the numbers are the numbers. I think he is on a fast upward curve I am convinced he will improve significantly for a step up in trip and if he can handle Newmarket( going away again as soon as he met the rise ) which is very tricky I am confident he can handle Cheltenham.
Tweet
Comment