2022 Queen Mother Champion Chase

[charlie]

Doesnt get the 'no brainer' tag for me.

I'm having to use my brain.

The reigning QMCC winner avoiding the race and different owners that don't seem to get involved randomly deciding to get involved?

Of course he'd be single figures and you'll be on the ball to bin it, but takes brain power ?

CPS not getting involved is a tick in the plus column as it would give HDB licence to go for less obvious targets, of which this is the least obvious. Its probably a brainer tbf

[Brooksie]

Envoi isn't exactly slow, I think people forget he won a royal bond beating Abacadabras. That season Abacadabras just got touched off by Shishkin.. the favourite for this race. I wouldn't say he jumps that slow either, but I'll admit he's not the quickest through the air. That being said, we haven't seen him jump fences at 2 mile championship pace so it's hard to judge. As Charlie pointed out CPS would probably want to keep theirs apart at Cheltenham and I think this would be a logical move. You'd also have to factor in injuries which could shuffle the pack again.

[TigerRolllllll]

Rachael has ridden Allaho, Envoi and PTKO (tho latter more at home) and will have good idea of relative speeds, etc to discuss with Henry

He is entered in everything…..but Durkan and KG as potential next ones don’t yet indicate a move to 2m

I think next entry will show us Henry’s real thoughts

[nortonscoin200]

Forgive me if I'm way off the pace (often the case) but I've just seen Henry's comments in the RP which made me think he's gearing up Put The Kettle On for the Mares Chase.

HDB said: "She stayed on well at Cheltenham and I thought it was a similar run to last year [when she won the Shloer Chase]. It was just that the ground was a lot softer in 2020 and that gave her a chance to come back at them.

"She seems good since. Having discussed it with everyone, I'd say we'll step her up in trip and try her in the mares' chase at Fairyhouse on New Year's Day.

"We'll see how it all unfolds but it's not certain [that she'll try to defend her Champion Chase crown]. She'll probably have a few entries. Obviously there's the Mares' Chase and the Ryanair Chase.

"I'd say she'll be entered for all of those and we'll see nearer the time. She seems like a different lady in the spring as well and we'll look at what the ground is then too."

Reading between the lines, I'd say this is Henry breaking the news gently that PTKO wont be going for the Champion Chase.

My view is that she wont be going for the Ryanair either - reckon Envoi Allen will be the stable's flag-bearer in that one. PTKO not even quoted by the bookies for the Ryanair.

But Henry must be thinking PTKO would have a great chance of landing the Mares Chase for which she is a best priced 11-1.

So it begs the question: Will she beat Elimay?

I backed Elimay early doors and my gut feeling is that she can take care of PTKO - there's not much between them on ratings though PTKO does just have the edge.

But at 11-1 I'm not tempted and prefer to chance it and stick to Elimay.

Anyone want to expose my folly?

[Istabraq]

Forgive me if I'm way off the pace (often the case) but I've just seen Henry's comments in the RP which made me think he's gearing up Put The Kettle On for the Mares Chase.

For me, if the reigning champion chaser has regressed sufficiently in a few short months then I’d be very worried how much further she will regress over the next 4 months.
I’ve got no stats to back this up but returning champions usually defend their crown, if they feel she’s no longer capable of winning a 2m championship race then the natural step would be to go for the Ryanair, I don’t believe this has been mentioned, so an assumed drop in class to the Mares chase is a red flag for me, she could well find herself in the breeding shed by the time the tapes go up…

[Dessie the great]

For me, if the reigning champion chaser has regressed sufficiently in a few short months then I’d be very worried how much further she will regress over the next 4 months.
I’ve got no stats to back this up but returning champions usually defend their crown, if they feel she’s no longer capable of winning a 2m championship race then the natural step would be to go for the Ryanair, I don’t believe this has been mentioned, so an assumed drop in class to the Mares chase is a red flag for me, she could well find herself in the breeding shed by the time the tapes go up…

I don't think she has regressed at all has she? She ran a very similar race in the Shloer last year only the opposition was far lesser and the slow ground enabled her to come back at them. She was running on again this year and made significant ground on the field from the bottom of the hill.

I think her last 2 runs show that she hasn't got the pace for 2m open G1 level on good ground, simple as that. If the ground turned up soft she would be back in the mix. They are right to explore other options, has always shaped like a stayer, even in her arkle win conditions ensured it was a severe test of stamina and she outstayed Fakir D more than anything else. Could be a better mare over further imo

[Istabraq]

I don't think she has regressed at all has she?

I didn't think so Dessie but for her trainer to confirm that her participation in the QM is in doubt is a worry.
I haven't heard the interview/comments but from what people are saying in here the Mares Chase looks to be on the agenda, whether that race was namechecked I have no idea but as a G2 it's naturally a weaker race.
As I say, if they said now the Ryanair is a target then I'd be more confident that all is well with her, but if the plan is a G2 then it does suggest regression and with mares when they start regressing they go down quickly and don't come back...

[charlie]

For me, if the reigning champion chaser has regressed sufficiently in a few short months then I’d be very worried how much further she will regress over the next 4 months.
I’ve got no stats to back this up but returning champions usually defend their crown, if they feel she’s no longer capable of winning a 2m championship race then the natural step would be to go for the Ryanair, I don’t believe this has been mentioned, so an assumed drop in class to the Mares chase is a red flag for me, she could well find herself in the breeding shed by the time the tapes go up…

She's lost 10L on debut, as a 7 year old. Talk of regression and breeding shed etc are premature to the extreme IMO.

[Dessie the great]

I didn't think so Dessie but for her trainer to confirm that her participation in the QM is in doubt is a worry.
I haven't heard the interview/comments but from what people are saying in here the Mares Chase looks to be on the agenda, whether that race was namechecked I have no idea but as a G2 it's naturally a weaker race.
As I say, if they said now the Ryanair is a target then I'd be more confident that all is well with her, but if the plan is a G2 then it does suggest regression and with mares when they start regressing they go down quickly and don't come back...

QMCC is going to be a stronger race this year and if run on fast ground she wouldn't have much of a chance even at her best imo, soft ground a differentball game. Trainer just stated she would be upped in trip on next start and would have entries for CC, MC and RC at the festival

[Istabraq]

She's lost 10L on debut, as a 7 year old. Talk of regression and breeding shed etc are premature to the extreme IMO.

Hope that's the case charlie, but if champions are as good as ever they usually defend their crown so for me it's a flag.
I've just seen the RP piece from yesterday and he has said the Mares chase and Ryanair are both options so perhaps all is well, you could pick holes in the fact he namechecked the Mares race before the Ryanair but if the G1 Ryanair is the target then you have to assume all is well.
Going from an Arkle to a QM to targeting a G2 Mares chase would be some comedown and yes, for me, it suggests a regression and again, if you were to be picky, the fact he's said her next engagement will be a Mares race on New Years Day might raise a concern.
As I say, I hope she's fit well and as good as ever, the game needs the best horses competing and the best horses in the top races...

[Istabraq]

QMCC is going to be a stronger race this year and if run on fast ground she wouldn't have much of a chance even at her best imo,

Is a stronger renewal a sufficient enough excuse not to defend your crown ?
And we are still in November, in recent years this race has been littered with high profile withdrawals on or near raceday...

[Dessie the great]

Is a stronger renewal a sufficient enough excuse not to defend your crown ?
And we are still in November, in recent years this race has been littered with high profile withdrawals on or near raceday...

I don't think they have ruled it out? I think it is a smart move looking at other options, she could run in the G1 in Leopardstown and come 3rd again and they wouldn't learn anything new.

The next target is a mares race as you say but I don't think their is any open graded chase on around that time in the calendar over 2m4f?

She may be regressing but it's doubtful as she is lightly raced and relatively young but I don't think we can say that from her shloer performance or from anything that I have read since

[Istabraq]

She may be regressing but it's doubtful as she is lightly raced and relatively young but I don't think we can say that from her shloer performance or from anything that I have read since

The flag is the suggestion of a weaker target for the current champion 2 mile chaser, let's hope I'm reading too much into...

[Dessie the great]

The flag is the suggestion of a weaker target for the current champion 2 mile chaser, let's hope I'm reading too much into...

Fair enough. She could have improved from last year and still have a lesser chance of following up this season as it is aa hotter renewal in my view. I think I read somewhere that if you ran the shloer and CC side by side PTKO was ahead of herself the whole way in the shloer(even though she looked not to be travelling) compared to the Champion Chase and would have beaten her champion chase performance in the shloer

[ComplyOrDie]

I think it would be a travesty for the reigning champ of this race to drop down to a G2 Mares Chase at the festival the following season, and there should be something in place to stop this from happening, IMO. The Mares races are all well and good but I now feel like they can go and take advantage of a 7lb allowance when it suits and revert back to their own sex when it doesn't, which is surely not how it's meant to be.

As for Henry's comments, well, he needs a kick in the cojones for even contemplating it. One defeat at the track, in a race where she only just crawled over the line in one of the worst ever renewals the previous season, and now he's thinking about the Mares Chase....wet blanket!