2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Rooster Booster]

Closer to a Champion Chase route (3.5F difference) than a Gold Cup route (7F difference).

Absolute nonsense to think he’s a future Gold Cup horses, he’s won a Grade 1 over 3M by 12 lengths, and run him at the meeting over 7F less.

To me, it suggests their not that certain he’s a Gold Cup horse.

Their history of taking them from the Turners to the Gold Cup, is littered with non-stayers over 3M2.5F

I understand people’s frustrations etc but I personally wouldn’t be reading as much into this years race choice and his long term gold cup aspirations. Sizing John , kicking king, kauto star and war of attrition all contested the Arkle prior to winning the GC in their first senior year.

All of them plus best mate didn’t try 3 miles until they were senior horses and in the cases of SJ, BM and WOA they didn’t try 3 miles until the race immediately before the Gold Cup.

Personally I’m happy to wait until I see how he is campaigned next season before I make any strong judgements over his 2023 gold cup credentials.

[Odin]

I understand people’s frustrations etc but I personally wouldn’t be reading as much into this years race choice and his long term gold cup aspirations. Sizing John , kicking king, kauto star and war of attrition all contested the Arkle prior to winning the GC in their first senior year.

All of them plus best mate didn’t try 3 miles until they were senior horses and in the cases of SJ, BM and WOA they didn’t try 3 miles until the race immediately before the Gold Cup.

Personally I’m happy to wait until I see how he is campaigned next season before I make any strong judgements over his 2023 gold cup credentials.

You may be right, but none of those were trained by Willie Mullins who seems to have used the Turner's for his questionable stayers in the past. Naturally, a questionable stayer can turn into a definite stayer over time but it would be a strange thing to do with respect to the gold cup 2023 to go 2m4f, 2m6f, 2m3.5f in his first 3 races if he's a gold cup horse next year imo. For future Gold cups (i.e. 2024 onwards), it wouldn't bother me.

Note - none of this is discussion re winning/losing bets. It's simply about a trainer thinking he has a gold cup horse on his hands then choosing to drop him in trip after he showed no signs of being a non-stayer and some signs of struggling to go the pace over 2m6f last time

[Rooster Booster]

You may be right, but none of those were trained by Willie Mullins who seems to have used the Turner's for his questionable stayers in the past. Naturally, a questionable stayer can turn into a definite stayer over time but it would be a strange thing to do with respect to the gold cup 2023 to go 2m4f, 2m6f, 2m3.5f in his first 3 races if he's a gold cup horse next year imo. For future Gold cups (i.e. 2024 onwards), it wouldn't bother me.

Note - none of this is discussion re winning/losing bets. It's simply about a trainer thinking he has a gold cup horse on his hands then choosing to drop him in trip after he showed no signs of being a non-stayer and some signs of struggling to go the pace over 2m6f last time

I didn’t mention anything about winning or losing bets and was not making this suggestion at all I was just trying to give hope to folks that may be pessimistic about the horses gold cup credentials should he run in the turners. If you want to continue to be pessimistic that’s fine as if he wins the turners he will help make the market for you for other horses especially those that run in the BANC. As one door closes another opens.

Also djakadam ran in the turners and did alright in the gold cup so perhaps another crumb of hope for folks

[Odin]

I didn’t mention anything about winning or losing bets and was not making this suggestion at all I was just trying to give hope to folks that may be pessimistic about the horses gold cup credentials should he run in the turners. If you want to continue to be pessimistic that’s fine as if he wins the turners he will help make the market for you for other horses especially those that run in the BANC. As one door closes another opens.

Also djakadam ran in the turners and did alright in the gold cup so perhaps another crumb of hope for folks

Yep, can't dispute any of that as they're all fair points. We shall see what occurs over the next few weeks (and years).

Should also be noted that if GDC is as good as a lot of us think, he should be able to overcome what may or may not be a suboptimal trip whichever race he goes for - and if he is a 'non-stayer' that may not even matter if he's that good. His beginners chase run was something else!

[Saxon Warrior]

You may be right, but none of those were trained by Willie Mullins who seems to have used the Turner's for his questionable stayers in the past. Naturally, a questionable stayer can turn into a definite stayer over time but it would be a strange thing to do with respect to the gold cup 2023 to go 2m4f, 2m6f, 2m3.5f in his first 3 races if he's a gold cup horse next year imo. For future Gold cups (i.e. 2024 onwards), it wouldn't bother me.

Note - none of this is discussion re winning/losing bets. It's simply about a trainer thinking he has a gold cup horse on his hands then choosing to drop him in trip after he showed no signs of being a non-stayer and some signs of struggling to go the pace over 2m6f last time

Yes, my comment about the Turners earlier was specifically linked to Willie Mullins prepping his Gold Cup horses into the 3M-0.5F Novice Chase at the previous Festival.

The more suspect stayers over Cheltenham Gold Cup he puts into the Turners over 7F less than the Gold Cup trip.

Of course GDC could buck his trend and become his Kauto Star and be able to win over multi-trips at the highest level for years and years.

[Madmoose]

https://t.co/KRJpf2nuAE

Ahoy goes RSA

[Exar Essay]

https://t.co/KRJpf2nuAE

Ahoy goes RSA

Great news. IF they all turn up, this could be some race.

[BookieBasher]

https://t.co/KRJpf2nuAE

Ahoy goes RSA

Finally a bit of sunshine after a series of kicks in the unmentionables

[Lobos]

Yeeeeehaaaaaaa!!!!!

[kinloch brae]

Nice to get a bit of good news for a change. At least now we have a match up. Bet 365 can offer a cash out again, not that I am going to take it.

Presumably, it was Saxon's tweet that tipped the balance. Heroic stuff.

It should have been the only sensible option which became even more sensible without Galopin Des Champs.

Fingers crossed he can do what he didn't do at Kempton, and outstay Bravemansgame.

[kinloch brae]

Saxon, is there any chance you can also point De Bromhead in the right direction?

[Zachx02]

Nice to get a bit of good news for a change. At least now we have a match up. Bet 365 can offer a cash out again, not that I am going to take it.

Presumably, it was Saxon's tweet that tipped the balance. Heroic stuff.

It should have been the only sensible option which became even more sensible without Galopin Des Champs.

Fingers crossed he can do what he didn't do at Kempton, and outstay Bravemansgame.

To be honest, he's a completely different animal going left and right handed, his jumping at kempton was awful, went in close to basically every fence, I'd fancy him to turn around the form at Cheltenham

[kinloch brae]

To be honest, he's a completely different animal going left and right handed, his jumping at kempton was awful, went in close to basically every fence, I'd fancy him to turn around the form at Cheltenham

Personally, I am worried about the jumping whichever way round it is, but if he is to be a Gold Cup horse, it is much better they find out sooner, rather than later. I think the ability is there, and if he jumps well enough he has a good chance. It's not as if there are no doubts about Bravemansgame, so I am surprised Ahoy Senor hasn't shortened.

[isitmarchyet]

Was listening to Let's Talk Racing earlier and Josh had talked to Paul Nicholls about Bravemansgame. He said he's definitely going for this race rather than the Turners, but did say if the ground is bad they just won't run at all and wait for Aintree.

30:29 for the Bravemansgame quote.

[kinloch brae]

Was listening to Let's Talk Racing earlier and Josh had talked to Paul Nicholls about Bravemansgame. He said he's definitely going for this race rather than the Turners, but did say if the ground is bad they just won't run at all and wait for Aintree.

30:29 for the Bravemansgame quote.

Not a surprise, there have been times this season when you might have thought he was favourite just to bypass Cheltenham. That seems to confirm both the course, and potential stamina issues. He could easily end up being a flat track bully. We know his jumping, although not blemish free at Newbury, will likely keep him in contention, but if something is upsides at the last it will be very interesting to see what happens. It could be a repeat of last year,