2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Silverbirch]

Just reading the Mullins tour on sporting life he says Stattler NHC as he wouldn’t be fav if he went for this

Is that because he has the better/favourite for it already? Hmm

[kinloch brae]

I would imagine Nicholls is probably laughing so much at today's news he has likely burst.

At more than one stage this season you got the vibe from him that Bravemansgame wasn't even going to Cheltenham. It's on record that he sees the King George as his Gold Cup. That seems to imply he isn't totally convinced about the horse's stamina. Was that really cleared up by outclassing a couple of plodders at Newbury? Then you have the not so small matter of his blowout at last year's Festival to consider. He finished tamely behind a horse who has since been trounced by Galopin Des Champs, and he would only have finished fourth had Bear Ghylls got anything like a decent ride. It remains to be seen whether he is anything more than a flat track bully.

Now despite all the possible negatives surrounding course and distance, it looks as if he has been presented with an open goal. The man who sent out Quevega in search of one penalty kick after another has suddenly decided to become a hero to the cheerleading brigade and despite telling everyone that Ahoy Senor is a Gold Cup horse the Scu/Russell axis are seemingly frightened to run the horse at Cheltenham.

[YoungHustler]

GDC not coming here and going Turners AND then beating me out of BO returns is close to bloodbath scenario for me

Same here Charlie. Nightmare of a situation. I've got either or both in most of my multiples too!

[Fatcatshat]

GDC not coming here and going Turners AND then beating me out of BO returns is close to bloodbath scenario for me

Absolutely, me too, would be a sickner!

Hopefully he is just stirring the pot a little though

[ToniC]

Been looking at this race incase the worst happens. Think there has to be a case made for beacon edge given his current price, especially as 25.0ish seems available enough (helped myself to a point and others been at it too).

coming 3 parts of a length second to Farouk dalene giving him half a stone is good form, even better when you consider the ground would have suited farouk (3 of his 5 wins prior heavy in the description, including a grade 2, and second in a gr1 on heavy) much more than it would have when he was 2nd to Stattler on good to yielding ground in naas a few weeks before. Again farouk dalene was narrowly denied by master mcshee over a trip too short for him, and master mcshee has since come second (albeit well beaten 9 lengths) to GDC, I think that essentially putting in a half a stone better performance than farouk dalene at the weights puts him at a very good level and I’ve no idea why the RPRs have tuesdays run so much lower for farouk than naas, I can’t see any reasoning for that.

his beating of fury road in the drinmore another decent form line, obviously holes can be poked in it and fury road was pulling himself up on the run-in, but he’s comfortably put away run wild fred & the rest of the field in a grade 1 since and It is still a 20/1+ shot.

I feel without GDC this race is blown wide open, much was made of BMGs weight-giving performance the last day but at the end of the day he’s beaten 3 other horses, horses that were absolutely run over in their novice hurdle races last festival too. Obviously he’d be a deserving fav without GDC don’t get me wrong, but he doesn’t seem unbeatable and was soundly put away last festival. Beacon edges 4th place in the stayers hurdle is a very good bit of form IMO, he perhaps didn’t quite get home as strong as the rest but being another year older should help with that. He’s better value than the likes of capodanno, jungle boogie, and Farouk dalene himself, who are all shorter than him in this market, despite all having multiple entries whilst beacon edge is nailed down to this race

[Madmoose]

Been looking at this race incase the worst happens. Think there has to be a case made for beacon edge given his current price, especially as 25.0ish seems available enough (helped myself to a point and others been at it too).

coming 3 parts of a length second to Farouk dalene giving him half a stone is good form, even better when you consider the ground would have suited farouk (3 of his 5 wins prior heavy in the description, including a grade 2, and second in a gr1 on heavy) much more than it would have when he was 2nd to Stattler on good to yielding ground in naas a few weeks before. Again farouk dalene was narrowly denied by master mcshee over a trip too short for him, and master mcshee has since come second (albeit well beaten 9 lengths) to GDC, I think that essentially putting in a half a stone better performance than farouk dalene at the weights puts him at a very good level and I’ve no idea why the RPRs have tuesdays run so much lower for farouk than naas, I can’t see any reasoning for that.

his beating of fury road in the drinmore another decent form line, obviously holes can be poked in it and fury road was pulling himself up on the run-in, but he’s comfortably put away run wild fred & the rest of the field in a grade 1 since and It is still a 20/1+ shot.

I feel without GDC this race is blown wide open, much was made of BMGs weight-giving performance the last day but at the end of the day he’s beaten 3 other horses, horses that were absolutely run over in their novice hurdle races last festival too. Obviously he’d be a deserving fav without GDC don’t get me wrong, but he doesn’t seem unbeatable and was soundly put away last festival. Beacon edges 4th place in the stayers hurdle is a very good bit of form IMO, he perhaps didn’t quite get home as strong as the rest but being another year older should help with that. He’s better value than the likes of capodanno, jungle boogie, and Farouk dalene himself, who are all shorter than him in this market, despite all having multiple entries whilst beacon edge is nailed down to this race

Beacon Edge also jumped much better the last day compared to the Drinmore where his ability got him home after a poor round.

He’s a horse that could win the RSA but needs to be given a perfect ride pouncing as late as possible otherwise he may be outstayed by something else.

Big price with the case you make though should GDC not show up.

[ToniC]

Beacon Edge also jumped much better the last day compared to the Drinmore where his ability got him home after a poor round.

He’s a horse that could win the RSA but needs to be given a perfect ride pouncing as late as possible otherwise he may be outstayed by something else.

Big price with the case you make though should GDC not show up.

Yes jockey went too soon in the stayers could have got at least third if he’d been patient. And agree re his jumping think it’s fair to say he’s not got the scope for a fence that GDC and bmg would have and that’s something you can’t train out but after being a bit sticky at the first 2 or 3 he jumped very pleasingly and economically in Navan

[Madmoose]

Another one that might be coming to to boil with each run could be Gaillard du Mesnil with the step up in trip surely would help him.

[Lobos]

Agree MM. From day one I always thought he'd be a staying chaser this season based on his Leopardstown win last year. He could yet surprise in March.

[Hurricane fly]

GDM winning this would make up for any DD/SH/GDC tomfoolery.

From a very selfish point of view

[kinloch brae]

Absolutely, me too, would be a sickner!

Hopefully he is just stirring the pot a little though

What does pot stirring achieve? Does the media proclaimed 'gent' get some warped enjoyment from upsetting punters?

I would have had no issue with Galopin Des Champs going Turners, if that was the original plan and all he has done is stuck to it. Unfortunately, he decided it was a good idea not to tell anyone about that plan.

The problem with that thinking was that nobody in their right mind expected him to take on Bob Olinger. How easy would it have been for him to confirm that wasn't the case? That was always the main reason why he was such a short price for the Brown Advisory. He may pretend otherwise, but he isn't oblivious to the markets.

[Fatcatshat]

I think the way they see it is that they aren’t obliged to tell anyone anything, and they very rarely tell it straight as it is. Their obligation is to their owners and themselves, to try and win as many races as they can, to try and win as much money as they can and try and land the occasional punt along the way.

There will no doubt be some sporting advantages as well as betting advantages to be had from the gamesmanship, not just for GDS but also for many of their other horses, it’s just very hard to put your finger on it if you don’t explicitly know the plan. One thing is for certain, they do it all the time, and they do it very well

[ToniC]

GDC scenario is fair enough… 24 hours and not a peep around whatever has gone off with allegorie de vassy is a total joke. Although the blame can’t be entirely laid at their door either I don’t suppose - do no so-called journalists ever pick up the phone and ask outright?

[Exar Essay]

GDC scenario is fair enough… 24 hours and not a peep around whatever has gone off with allegorie de vassy is a total joke. Although the blame can’t be entirely laid at their door either I don’t suppose - do no so-called journalists ever pick up the phone and ask outright?

Yup. At least Nicky has come out and said Jonbon is grand within an hour or so of the exchange nonsense. Now he might switch races and that’s fine - it’s part of antepost betting - but we know he’s fit and well.

[Eggs]

….Mullins confirms Capadanno for here (Stable Tour thread). Thinks the distance will really suit.