2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Silverbirch]

Unless Willie thinks BMG is a tougher nut to crack than Bob ? Perfectly feasible I suppose.

Who Bob has already beaten.. Albeit in different circumstances and conditions etc..

[Istabraq]

Unless Willie thinks BMG is a tougher nut to crack than Bob ? Perfectly feasible I suppose.

Bravemansgame couldn't get near Galiard du Mesnil who was a long way behind Bob in the Ballymore so I think Mullins will know where GDC sits with the Nicholls horse regardless of how much we think BMG has improved over fences, I think it would be a brave man to predict he has, or can, improve past Bob...

[charlie]

It's a simply equation IMO. Stattler is all over NHC chase bound so Willies only real clear standout runner in the RSA is GDC. Clashing with BO would be very un Willie like and even if something happened to Bob, Willie would have SS, HEC and JB as 2nd, 3rd and 4th fav behind GDC.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Bravemansgame couldn't get near Galiard du Mesnil who was a long way behind Bob in the Ballymore so I think Mullins will know where GDC sits with the Nicholls horse regardless of how much we think BMG has improved over fences, I think it would be a brave man to predict he has, or can, improve past Bob...

Well I wouldn’t be brave enough, but I would say that BMG is the better jumper of a fence, more natural over them.
That would mean he should make ground during a race between the two. He was well beaten though over hurdles.
Be great to see them in a chase together, should see that next season all being well.

[Exar Essay]

Unless Willie thinks BMG is a tougher nut to crack than Bob ? Perfectly feasible I suppose.

Exactly. Willie knows Bob’s ability on a line through Capodano. Maybe he wasn’t that impressed and is more worried by BMG’s jumping.

[ToniC]

I agree with Istabraq here entirely.

I think Bob O shown in the Killiney that Capodanno not up to winning a festival grade 1 even if he does improve for another 4 furlongs, Stattler is going for the 4 miler, and I highly doubt he’d be running either of the 2 5-year olds over 3 miles especially given they didn’t even get a preliminary entry in the 2m5 flogas, that probably shows enough where his thinking is with them.

Jungle Boogie has had 2 runs over obstacles in his career up to now as an 8 year old, it wouldn’t be sensational to say you couldn’t trust him to be making it to the festivals, and his lack of experience will be a big handicap for him to overcome in a race like the RSA. I struggle to see to be honest how he would end up as the trainers sole dart in the RSA, he’d probably have to come a good 2nd to GDC in the flogas yet comfortably ahead of everything else and I suppose it could enter the conversation. But he’s absolutely not the sort you’d want to be depending on with no other options.

also, to get a clearer picture of what should be GDC’s festival engagement, you have to look at what other options he’s got in the 4 novice chases, as they all have to slot in around each other to some extent.

Should blue Lord win as we all expect at the weekend, then he will go Arkle as the trainers sole dart as is characteristic for him, and both Saint Sam & HEC can step up in trip as two darts for him in the JLT, they’re hardly going to step up to 3m never having run beyond 2 prior, and we know it’s not the trainers MO to go into the Arkle with multiple runners whereas it is the marsh, his runners there have typically made up around 25% of the total field since the race became a grade 1.

Capodanno I think has shown he’s not good enough, he still holds his flogas entry after the confirmation stage but I think it’s widely known he’s not going in the flogas and (presumably) trying to get qualified for the 4 miler instead? probably an indicator that the yard/owner thinking along those lines too, and I think we can presume the NHC would be his most likely target now.

So you’re then down to jungle boogie and GDC who have to fit in somewhere, and given how it looks to play out with his other novices and the races they’ll be confined to, if he ran GDC in the JLT he’d have to send jungle boogie to the RSA as his sole dart.

I’ve glossed over the fact GDM still exists a little bit but given his form this season you’re probably entitled to. If he suddenly looks back to his best from last season then it gives the trainer more options should he want to go one way or the other with GDC, but that’s got to be unlikely after 2 bad showings, Patrick Mullins expressed at the beginning of the season doubts about whether chasing would be his game and he probably had a point judging him on his last 2 runs.

The hand he has to play with his novice chasers this season overall is another reason to believe that the RSA is the right race for GDC in my opinion

[Saxon Warrior]

I agree with Istabraq here entirely.


The hand he has to play with his novice chasers this season overall is another reason to believe that the RSA is the right race for GDC in my opinion

From someone who focuses on the detail too, I couldnt have put that any better myself

[Exar Essay]

I've read and reread the Ruby Walsh column. Genuine question: How much does Ruby actually know? Does WIllie confide in him his plans or are these Ruby's best guesses?

I seem to remember him having led everyone a merry dance before too, but can't recall the precise circumstance so may be doing him a disservice.

Anyway, going through the quote:

Galopin Des Champs won the Martin Pipe Hurdle last year at Cheltenham and he’s probably in everyone’s minds as a three-miler, because he won last season’s Irish Mirror Novice Hurdle at Punchestown. However, that that was probably more to do with Willie dividing and conquering, as he already had Gaillard Du Mesnil for the 2m 4f option with Bob Olinger not running there.

Well why weren't they sent the other way around, then? Surely Willie wouldn't run his best chase prospect over the wrong distance? What if he'd bottomed him out?

We never saw Galopin Des Champs as an out-and-out three miler. We know he stays but jumping looks to be his biggest attribute and I’d be surprised if Willie doesn’t utilise that asset. I don’t think he’d have a jumping advantage on Bravemansgame, but he could on Bob Olinger.

They mightn't have seen it this way previously, but his run at Punchestown and his chasing debut over 2m5f all suggested he wants 3m. So maybe Willie sees it that way now? Also, to my recollection, Willie has twice said 'over the longer trip' when asked about GDC. On the jumping point, I must admit, his jumping is excellent, but is it really his biggest asset? If we were playing top trumps I'd be nominating cruising speed, not jumping.

“Bob Olinger’s jumping is very safe, which is why he’s potentially a Gold Cup horse in the future, and he could be vulnerable at this trip against something like Galopin Des Champs with the undulations of Cheltenham and where the fences are positioned. If he’s in any doubt he’ll take the safe option, which is perfectly fine but it does cost you energy and time.

Bob this, Bob that, Bob doesn't jump great, Bob's vulnerable ... yet Bob is 2 from 2 over fences and beat a decent animal in Capodano when asked to find something over Christmas.

Reading these comments through again, it screams mind games. I'm just not sure what the intention is ...

[Splinterboy82]

Having listened to Ruby on the PP podcast around these races, if GDC goes out & puts in the same kind of performance over C&D this weekend at the DRF then I think he’ll go 2m5. The case was fairly strong & truth be told nobody actually knows what BO vs GDC looks like as they’ve never directly ran against each other. You can often read in between Ruby’s BS & what has been discussed & I think 2m5 is very much on for GDC….this weekend will be very interesting as always

[somer1]

Where does GDC go? Thats easy to sort out.
Oi Mullins open ya gob and put us out of misery or next time i see you at the Fest i will pinch ya hat and piss in it

[Lobos]

Exactly. Willie knows Bob’s ability on a line through Capodano. Maybe he wasn’t that impressed and is more worried by BMG’s jumping.

Very good point. Capodanno did have him out of his comfort zone for a second or two.

[Lobos]

Having listened to Ruby on the PP podcast around these races, if GDC goes out & puts in the same kind of performance over C&D this weekend at the DRF then I think he’ll go 2m5. The case was fairly strong & truth be told nobody actually knows what BO vs GDC looks like as they’ve never directly ran against each other. You can often read in between Ruby’s BS & what has been discussed & I think 2m5 is very much on for GDC….this weekend will be very interesting as always

2m 5f ??? It's not even 2m 4f.

[That Horse]

Reading these comments through again, it screams mind games. I'm just not sure what the intention is ...

Not really in Ruby's interests to do punters a favour is it? He works with Paddy Power and has to generate interest over the next while in the lead up to Cheltenham. Wouldn't pay him much attention if I'm honest. This forum is much more informative and that was the case way back when there was value in GDC's price.

WhIchever race he's goes for, noone's getting rich backing him now

[Exar Essay]

Not really in Ruby's interests to do punters a favour is it? He works with Paddy Power and has to generate interest over the next while in the lead up to Cheltenham. Wouldn't pay him much attention if I'm honest. This forum is much more informative and that was the case way back when there was value in GDC's price.

WhIchever race he's goes for, noone's getting rich backing him now

Not mind games with us. Mind games with Henry and Bob's destination. Sorry, should've made that clear.

Imagine that, all this to wind up FJ members ...

[Splinterboy82]

2m 5f ??? It's not even 2m 4f.

Sorry Lobos, 2m3f 168 yards on the New Course!

Either way, I think if he puts in an equal stand out jumping performance at the DRF he goes Turners / JLT / Marsh / Whatever it’s called….The Golden Miller!