2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Bonjers]

. Ignore that

[Lobos]

Not sure anyone could say that Bob wouldn't be suited to this race based on his latest run but the money for him over the last 24 hours is very unexpected to say the least.

[SeanRock]

Smoke & mirrors goon here, Bob’s style of racing is not BANC material & Willie isn’t going to send his best staying novice on paper (DRF will reveal all) to a race he has multiple options in! Scaremongering covering is in full effect!

[Lobos]

Smoke & mirrors goon here, Bob’s style of racing is not BANC material & Willie isn’t going to send his best staying novice on paper (DRF will reveal all) to a race he has multiple options in! Scaremongering covering is in full effect!

I've just read Lydia's piece and it's quality as always. I don't expect them to switcheroo as she says but I wouldn't bet my life on it. Been in this game too long to dismiss anything. GDC could win either race as could Bob. It's as simple as that. None of us should poo poo the possibility just because our pockets are telling us otherwise.

[Dandrew99]

Smoke & mirrors goon here, Bob’s style of racing is not BANC material & Willie isn’t going to send his best staying novice on paper (DRF will reveal all) to a race he has multiple options in! Scaremongering covering is in full effect!

Somewhat agreed. I fully expect Bob to be tried over 3m at some point, but it definitely won't be before Cheltenham. Hasn't HDB said he goes straight there now anyway? He's not going to put his best novice chaser up in trip for the first time at Cheltenham. Zero chance.

And GDC will go (and win) the Brown Advisory. The very small chance of him going to the Turner's is if something is even more impressive at the DRF, which I really can't see happening.

We have enough to worry about with the novice hurdlers. These two swapping just isn't going to happen is it?

[Saxon Warrior]

Smoke & mirrors goon here, Bob’s style of racing is not BANC material & Willie isn’t going to send his best staying novice on paper (DRF will reveal all) to a race he has multiple options in! Scaremongering covering is in full effect!

Completely agree SeanRock

I dont believe for a moment that the Evens Fav for the RSA (and 6/1 fav for Gold Cup 2023), will switch races and go take on an Evens Fav for the Turners.

On what planet did that happen in the past?

The point I heard from it was if Bob keeps losing a bit at his fences at the midtrip, then he'd have 4 or 5 lengths to make back up on the flat.

That showed the market price of Evens as a bit short in Ruby's opinion.
It probably is.

Can he make back 5 lengths up on the flat vs others in the Turners market - over 2M4F?

Answer - Of course he can.

I thought it odd that Bobs careful jumping was picked at by Ruby, yet when they showed Jungle Boogie whacking and hacking through the tops of fences he didnt pick at that at all - when it was much worse.

Would Galopin switch? - Why would he?

It seemed to be that Ruby is impressed with Capo and he will improve for a trip (we'd all agree with that).

But would WPM have Capo as his RSA no1 and run Galopin vs Bob?

Not in my view he wouldn't.

The DRF will confirm more, of course.
On his debut Paul Townend struggled to pull Galopin up he was going round for another lap.

It's all a game of opinion until the decs are in and the races run.

Ruby is tongue in cheek with some if this stuff agitating Henry a bit, mind games I am sure

In reality if anyone is nervous about their big prices on Galopin migrating to the Turners, then the horse can easily be laid on BFX around 2.7, and if you have him at 25/1, lay off your stakes at that price and have a free bet at over 23/1. You can't lose, and you've given away little.

Similar with Bob and his 4/1 summer price, if your worried he won't run in the Turners, just lay him off at 5/4 on the Exchange for full Stakes and have a Free Bet of 11/4. You can't lose.


-------

There's been a lot of chat recently re:-

* Sir G or DD - Supreme vs Ballymore
* Jonbon or Con.Hill stepping up in trip
* Cashing out of Capo pre-entries

Now its
* Galopin switching to take on Bob - or forcing Bob to the RSA.

It could just be, in the cold light of day that everything goes to the originally thought out plans and nothing changes at all

[Saxon Warrior]

In reality if anyone is nervous about their big prices on Galopin migrating to the Turners, then the horse can easily be laid on BFX around 2.7, and if you have him at 25/1, lay off your stakes at that price and have a free bet at over 23/1. You can't lose, and you've given away little.

Similar with Bob and his 4/1 summer price, if your worried he won't run in the Turners, just lay him off at 5/4 on the Exchange for full Stakes and have a Free Bet of 11/4. You can't lose.

[ToniC]

Imagine Willie having to explain to the owners why he’s got their red hot looking novice chaser beat at the festival trying to take in a clash he didn’t have to

[NormaJean85]

Lydia does work with Ruby. Ruby also made a comment about "where is the betting in the Turners" when shown the BANC betting for GDC. I'd say its more than a hunch and a fairly decent possibility.

[Faugheen_Machine]

In reality if anyone is nervous about their big prices on Galopin migrating to the Turners, then the horse can easily be laid on BFX around 2.7, and if you have him at 25/1, lay off your stakes at that price and have a free bet at over 23/1. You can't lose, and you've given away little.

Similar with Bob and his 4/1 summer price, if your worried he won't run in the Turners, just lay him off at 5/4 on the Exchange for full Stakes and have a Free Bet of 11/4. You can't lose.

That's really good advice and is a no-brainer for those that are worried.

I don't think they'll switch but I might do this anyway to protect myself from an injury to either of them. The plan would be to back then both again when NRNB comes around.

[Exar Essay]

Lydia does work with Ruby. Ruby also made a comment about "where is the betting in the Turners" when shown the BANC betting for GDC. I'd say its more than a hunch and a fairly decent possibility.

Tongue in cheek? Given he knows Lydia was putting him up in advance.

[Rooster Booster]

The word switch has been used often ...please can can somebody remind me what connections have said that would make this a switch if GDC went to the turners? I’m sure they must have said something but can’t recall it...thanks

[Quevega]

Ruby is good at playing devil's advocate, because he knows that things change and nothing's ever set in stone.
And there is always another side to any discussion, however it's balanced. Be it 50/50 or 80/20 or whatever.
This one seems a little more clear cut assuming no upsets along the way, or injuries.

[Craigy14]

Ruby is good at playing devil's advocate, because he knows that things change and nothing's ever set in stone.
And there is always another side to any discussion, however it's balanced. Be it 50/50 or 80/20 or whatever.
This one seems a little more clear cut assuming no upsets along the way, or injuries.

Exactly, he works in the WPM yard, he’s not going to come out on air giving targets etc when WPM probably hasn’t finalised plans for them all yet. He’ll be close to knowing who goes where but not concrete.

As you say Q things can happen/change along the way so hell be prepared for those if need be.

[Many Clouds]

Bet365 suspended cashout on GDC in this now, all cos Lydia has a bet on him for the Turners. Jesus wept