2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Quevega]

Exactly...that’s why I think he is manipulating the media to create a myth to suit his own narrative...he knows he is not going to get called out on it . I know it’s bollocks you know it’s bollocks but the average joe is believing this shit .....fuck me the British public probably drinks more fancy water per capita than any other nation ...

I used to drink Perrier when I was younger.
Had a funny taste, but I bought into the marketing.
My dad (former steelworker) would call me all sorts.
Goes with the territory if you think you're a cross between Rick Astley and Chris Lowe from the Pet Shop Boys.

Went downhill when the "Mondays" came out though.
Think my dad preferred the poncey version to the cocky, drugged up drunk.
Serves him right.

[Carnage at Taunton]

The key word you used here was "most"
And Cheltenham is everything.
All other meetings are prep races and for form analysis only.
And betting on.

It’s not everything though.
And most meaning……. Yes we would love a Cheltenham winner but also a horse that don’t get it’s race life cut short for chasing a dream that was unlikely to come true.
Its 4 days during the NH season. Or at least used to be(or 3 days), now it’s become imo too focused on by the media and us.
I am sure you are not really saying the King George is a prep for the Gold Cup, or the Savills chase? Or
The tingle creek is a prep race for the QM?

[Rooster Booster]

I used to drink Perrier when I was younger.
Had a funny taste, but I bought into the marketing.
My dad (former steelworker) would call me all sorts.
Goes with the territory if you think you're a cross between Rick Astley and Chris Lowe from the Pet Shop Boys.

Went downhill when the "Mondays" came out though.
Think my dad preferred the poncey version to the cocky, drugged up drunk.
Serves him right.

Am I the only one that still thinks blazer and jeans look good...I’m never gonna give you up

[jack1092]

It’s not everything though.
And most meaning……. Yes we would love a Cheltenham winner but also a horse that don’t get it’s race life cut short for chasing a dream that was unlikely to come true.
Its 4 days during the NH season. Or at least used to be(or 3 days), now it’s become imo too focused on by the media and us.
I am sure you are not really saying the King George is a prep for the Gold Cup, or the Savills chase? Or
The tingle creek is a prep race for the QM?

You've just beaten what's probably the best UK challenger impressively, you claim he resembles Denman etc. Make big claims, and then swan off to Aintree in order to have an easier race and any proper opposition? Seems daft to me.

I get the whole long term, aiming for KG's etc. but if he's that good, why isn't happy to take on the Irish?

Let's put it this way, if he had smashed BO, like BO smashed him last year...i'd say he's a cert to show up.

[Black Dog]

What's wrong with running at Cheltenham AND Aintree? He did it last year when he thought BMG was a shoe in at liverpool,and he looks to be much improved for fences.

[Carnage at Taunton]

What's wrong with running at Cheltenham AND Aintree? He did it last year when he thought BMG was a shoe in at liverpool,and he looks to be much improved for fences.

Whilst horses do run at both meetings, also they skip one.
Also many horses don’t perform as well at Aintree as they are primed for Cheltenham and become over the top.
Its really down to the trainer and how he sees his horse, that’s his job.
Personally I Hope he runs at Cheltenham, I have been impressed with him , particularly with his jumping, and I think he will help provide a good race for us, but I don’t know the horse like his trainer does.
I think sometimes we need to try and understand thrainers thoughts and actions, and not judge on what we want.

[Carnage at Taunton]

You've just beaten what's probably the best UK challenger impressively, you claim he resembles Denman etc. Make big claims, and then swan off to Aintree in order to have an easier race and any proper opposition? Seems daft to me.

I get the whole long term, aiming for KG's etc. but if he's that good, why isn't happy to take on the Irish?

Let's put it this way, if he had smashed BO, like BO smashed him last year...i'd say he's a cert to show up.

I get what you say, and maybe there’s a case of not being quiet straight with us, but then he would not be the first to do that!!
I dunno what PN is thinking any more than anyone else does, but I do like to give the benefit of the doubt to those that make decisions, even if it puzzles me, and frustrates me.

[Quevega]

It’s not everything though.
And most meaning……. Yes we would love a Cheltenham winner but also a horse that don’t get it’s race life cut short for chasing a dream that was unlikely to come true.
Its 4 days during the NH season. Or at least used to be(or 3 days), now it’s become imo too focused on by the media and us.
I am sure you are not really saying the King George is a prep for the Gold Cup, or the Savills chase? Or
The tingle creek is a prep race for the QM?

The life cut short thing is a bit dramatic isn’t it.
Are all owners who want runners at Cheltenham murderers then ??
horses die in all manner of ways
And they’re all chasing a dream even if it’s winning a class 5 at Ludlow

and yes they’re all prep races !!

[Quevega]

Ahh
you said race life.
I’ll let you off
still overblown and dramatic though.

[Carnage at Taunton]

The life cut short thing is a bit dramatic isn’t it.
Are all owners who want runners at Cheltenham murderers then ??
horses die in all manner of ways
And they’re all chasing a dream even if it’s winning a class 5 at Ludlow

and yes they’re all prep races !!

I did not say life, I said Race life,and by that I meant meaning the best level he can possibly reach, which I
should have made clearer…….apologies.

You on a wind up? You actually think they are all prep races?

[Craigy14]

I’m sorry I just can’t accept skipping Cheltenham, the pinnacle of the NH season, just so you don’t notch a 2 or 3 or 4 on your horses record. Also as Q says most owners are not in it for an ‘easy’ prize money away from Cheltenham.

Your horse has a string of 1’s against its name, you go for the biggest and best prizes, he’ll likely go there unbeaten as well! It’s actually embarrassing! Skipping those imo does absolutely nothing for the horse in the long term. The horse won’t be use to running against such opposition and imo likely fold. To be the best you have to beat the best.

Yes there are other races elsewhere, have no problem targeting them, but with Nicholls now it really is getting a bit boring. I don’t buy into the looking after the horses thing, he’s just scared of his horses getting their arses handed to them against the Irish simple as that.

[Rooster Booster]

I fully accept your view is a popular one.

If You designed something to be the pinnacle of a season you wouldn’t plan it so that it was followed by two major festivals and you wouldn’t design it so that It couldn’t compete in terms of prize money. The breeders cup is a proper pinnacle of a season. Imagine having the breeders cup and then an alternative breeders cup 3 weeks later and another some weeks after that it makes absolutely no sense. The problem is not the owners or trainers it is that the schedule almost encourages horses to be kept apart as there are so many rich pickings to be had outside of and after Cheltenham.

Winning races and maximising prize money are intrinsically related. If Nichols could earn significantly more for finishing second in a grade 1 at Cheltenham than he could for winning a grade 1 at Aintree he would run the horse at Cheltenham but that is simply not the case and he knows as everybody does that the Irish are superior at the moment and so he’d be some kind of fucking nut case not to run a horse in a weaker race with a better chance of winning significantly more money.

id like you as a trainer of my horse to help me understand why you would run my horse at Cheltenham with a 10% chance of winning for less or same sort of money than running at aintree with a 30 to 40% chance of winning and if the only answer you could give me is that it’s the sporting thing and you have to do your bit to support Cheltenham as the pinnacle of the sport in order to be the whipping boy of the Irish I’d tell you to do one unless money was no object to me.so yes as I pointed out in an earlier post if you have bottomless pockets like JP then you can afford to finish 3rd at Cheltenham rather than first at aintree but there aren’t many in that kind of position. If you are suggesting that Nichols is steam rolling his owners into achieving ‘easy’prize money and skipping Cheltenham against their will then I think that claim needs to be substantiated as it seems counter intuitive. If most owners would sacrifice prize money easily available elsewhere for the Cheltenham craic then why the fuck are they placing place their horse with Nichols when he has been telling the world for a few seasons now that Cheltenham is not everything. Either they are stupid or a lot more complicit with Nichols view than is being suggested.

I am thinking that the owners that love Cheltenham and have the very good horses will place their horse with Willie, Gordon, Henry or Hendo and we are already seeing those horses. Those owners that are a little more pragmatic might consider Nichols and he is kind of garnering a large slice of those owners and both he and they are doing pretty well out of it.

if everybody wants Cheltenham to be the pinnacle then don’t have aintree and just have the grand national, or get the Cheltenham prize money to blow aintree out of the water. I was going to suggest for the Irish to frequent aintree more but Saxon beat me to it

Regards Cheltenham preparing horses up for the future etc are you suggesting the Cheltenham failings of horses like Clan Des O and Sylviniaco made them the horses they were outside of Cheltenham? I think I’d need a chunk of evidence to fall in line with your theory there. To be the best you have to beat the best. Well we know that already doesn’t happen because unlike most sports the best aren’t made to compete against each other and unless you revolutionise the entry system and replace it with mandatory entries that is unlikely to change anytime soon. If you want the best to race the best get rid of aintree and to a lesser extent get rid of punchestown and just have a 2 or 3 day Cheltenham and then it might happen.

I’d also genuinely like to know which horses you believe Nichols has had that warrant being described as ‘one of the best’ that he hasn’t run at Cheltenham....I’m not convinced the list would be as long as you’d imagine. I think the reality is the I might miss Cheltenham with him/her is actually code for my horse isn’t good enough even if it does have a few 1s next to it and it’s inclusion at the festival would likely have added very little to proceedings.

[Saxon Warrior]

I’m sorry I just can’t accept skipping Cheltenham, the pinnacle of the NH season, just so you don’t notch a 2 or 3 or 4 on your horses record. Also as Q says most owners are not in it for an ‘easy’ prize money away from Cheltenham.

Your horse has a string of 1’s against its name, you go for the biggest and best prizes, he’ll likely go there unbeaten as well! It’s actually embarrassing! Skipping those imo does absolutely nothing for the horse in the long term. The horse won’t be use to running against such opposition and imo likely fold. To be the best you have to beat the best.

Yes there are other races elsewhere, have no problem targeting them, but with Nicholls now it really is getting a bit boring. I don’t buy into the looking after the horses thing, he’s just scared of his horses getting their arses handed to them against the Irish simple as that.

Agreed,

He has a largely Irish free roll on through the season from October to the middle of March, so theyve had plenty of chance to beat the British before Cheltenham.

I really hope the Irish go full on at Aintree every year (they won’t because of Cheltenham, then their Fairyhouse and Punchestown Festivals), but wouldn’t that stop Nicholls in his tracks from targeting Aintree as a second best.

What next, targeting Ayr instead?

[Rooster Booster]

I’m sorry I just can’t accept skipping Cheltenham, the pinnacle of the NH season, just so you don’t notch a 2 or 3 or 4 on your horses record. Also as Q says most owners are not in it for an ‘easy’ prize money away from Cheltenham.

Your horse has a string of 1’s against its name, you go for the biggest and best prizes, he’ll likely go there unbeaten as well! It’s actually embarrassing! Skipping those imo does absolutely nothing for the horse in the long term. The horse won’t be use to running against such opposition and imo likely fold. To be the best you have to beat the best.

Yes there are other races elsewhere, have no problem targeting them, but with Nicholls now it really is getting a bit boring. I don’t buy into the looking after the horses thing, he’s just scared of his horses getting their arses handed to them against the Irish simple as that.

Apologies I didn’t attach to the quote

[Saxon Warrior]

I fully accept your view is a popular one.

If You designed something to be the pinnacle of a season you wouldn’t plan it so that it was followed by two major festivals and you wouldn’t design it so that It couldn’t compete in terms of prize money. The breeders cup is a proper pinnacle of a season. Imagine having the breeders cup and then an alternative breeders cup 3 weeks later and another some weeks after that it makes absolutely no sense. The problem is not the owners or trainers it is that the schedule almost encourages horses to be kept apart as there are so many rich pickings to be had outside of and after Cheltenham.


I am thinking that the owners that love Cheltenham and have the very good horses will place their horse with Willie, Gordon, Henry or Hendo and we are already seeing those horses. Those owners that are a little more pragmatic might consider Nichols and he is kind of garnering a large slice of those owners and both he and they are doing pretty well out of it.

if everybody wants Cheltenham to be the pinnacle then don’t have aintree and just have the grand national, or get the Cheltenham prize money to blow aintree out of the water. I was going to suggest for the Irish to frequent aintree more but Saxon beat me to it

Regards Cheltenham preparing horses up for the future etc are you suggesting the Cheltenham failings of horses like Clan Des O and Sylviniaco made them the horses they were outside of Cheltenham? I think I’d need a chunk of evidence to fall in line with your theory there. To be the best you have to beat the best. Well we know that already doesn’t happen because unlike most sports the best aren’t made to compete against each other and unless you revolutionise the entry system and replace it with mandatory entries that is unlikely to change anytime soon. If you want the best to race the best get rid of aintree and to a lesser extent get rid of punchestown and just have a 2 or 3 day Cheltenham and then it might happen.
.

Top Top Class Post.

Thank you for explaining the reality so well, @roosterbooster

The NH racing calendar in Britain is an absolute farce.

Jockey Club Racecourses seem to control almost all of the fixtures at the top NH tracks, as they have Kempton, Sandown, Aintree and Cheltenham.
Outside of theses tracks only Newbury stands out as having decent top level action through the season (though not enough Graded races, to match the quality of the track).

This means the Jockey Club Racecourses control nearly all of the Grade 1 NH race, and they alone control the Cheltenham-Aintree dynamics and the BHA are toothless to do anything about that.

That business seems happy to have the two biggest Festivals three weeks after each other at the end of the season, and set prize money to ensure both meetings get decent horses, rather than imbalance the prize money a lot more to Cheltenham

Its a pity Newbury isn’t owned by a massive racecourse group, as it clearly should have more top class Graded action,
* at the end of Nov/early a December meeting,
* at the February meeting (as a DRF type prep for Cheltenham)

The JCR aren’t going to give up fixture dates and Graded race dates, so we are stuck with this Aintree and/or Cheltenham situation that some British trainers appear to use, very early in the season, to highlight that they’re not going to the Festival because the Irish are coming.

To be brutally honest, from a purely punting position, I love it.

I know that most big British races that the Champion trainer wins over here, with novices won’t mean a jot, re Cheltenham betting, because he will find the "B" race at Aintree, and head there.

That leaves me to look only at Irish trainers (Willie, Gordon, Henry and Gavin, mainly) plus Hendo, and Danny boy.
The rest are largely irrelevant to me, for antepost purposes, for the Grade 1’s, and Mares races.

I hope this lasts for another ten years, it makes it easier to discount British horses outside of Hendo and Danny, mostly.

I need to check my bets now to see how many I have on British horses not trainers by Hendo/Danny. (Ahoy Senor rings a bell, but not much else).

A little later
Just checked 90% of horses backed are from the 4 Irish and 2 British trainers mentioned.

Outside of them I have a 66/1 Irish horse who is going to be binned, and an Irish horse with Enda Bolger for the X-C.

Of the Brits, just Ahoy Senor, Silver Forever and Bravemansgame, all mentioned for Cheltenham, but of course, nothing always goes the way you planned.