2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Irish Rugby]

Look, we're a step further. We know these horses are alive and are now active. They are winning maiden hurdles and beginner chases in Ireland, a not too difficult task for the likes of a Mullins/Elliott/De Bromhead inmate. We need to see them in real races before we can assess them with any confidence. You could even say that Capodanno was doing his best work at the end, leaving the FNC and the NHC still very much on the cards.

[jono]

Exactamundo.

Not saying he wins this. But people on here so quick to jump on things.

Brandy Love wins, they ejaculate quicker than the real McCoy....

GDM loses and he's got no chance.

100% this.

Monkfish beaten 7L on hurdles debut. Beaten aneck in the AB.
Allaho beaten on seasonal debuts when then placing in the AB and RSA. Got stuffed last seasonal before that Ryanair win.
Sharjah got well beaten prior both seasons he finished 2nd in the Champion Hurdle.
The Big Getaway turned over on chase debut. 3rd in Ballymore.
Ferny Hollow would have had no chance after 2 defeats, then won the bumper.
Appreciate It 3rd on debut. 2nd and strong fav in the bumper.
Melon, well beaten every year and then kept backing it up with 2nds in the CH and Marsh.
Concertista stuffed in first couple of races, then dotted up in the mares novice

Obviously you can argue for every horse i've listed there, there's others that dissapointed and then didn't kick on.
But very few times should a horse be written off after one run.
Even more so when it's a beginners chase.
The trainers horses are known to not peak at this stage of the season.
Everything suggests he wants a longer trip.
The horse got well beaten on seasonal debut last year.

He got beat 2 lengths today.
Finished 3rd.
And despite taking a few fences to warm up got much better as the race went on and looked like he'd pick the race up turning in.

Writing off a Willie Mullins horse on the back of that performance, with everything we know.
Is mad imo

[charlie]

100% this.

Monkfish beaten 7L on hurdles debut. Beaten aneck in the AB.
Allaho beaten on seasonal debuts when then placing in the AB and RSA. Got stuffed last seasonal before that Ryanair win.
Sharjah got well beaten prior both seasons he finished 2nd in the Champion Hurdle.
The Big Getaway turned over on chase debut. 3rd in Ballymore.
Ferny Hollow would have had no chance after 2 defeats, then won the bumper.
Appreciate It 3rd on debut. 2nd and strong fav in the bumper.
Melon, well beaten every year and then kept backing it up with 2nds in the CH and Marsh.
Concertista stuffed in first couple of races, then dotted up in the mares novice

Obviously you can argue for every horse i've listed there, there's others that dissapointed and then didn't kick on.
But very few times should a horse be written off after one run.
Even more so when it's a beginners chase.
The trainers horses are known to not peak at this stage of the season.
Everything suggests he wants a longer trip.
The horse got well beaten on seasonal debut last year.

He got beat 2 lengths today.
Finished 3rd.
And despite taking a few fences to warm up got much better as the race went on and looked like he'd pick the race up turning in.

Writing off a Willie Mullins horse on the back of that performance, with everything we know.
Is mad imo

Post of the day, maybe the week.

[hardheld]

100% this.

Monkfish beaten 7L on hurdles debut. Beaten aneck in the AB.
Allaho beaten on seasonal debuts when then placing in the AB and RSA. Got stuffed last seasonal before that Ryanair win.
Sharjah got well beaten prior both seasons he finished 2nd in the Champion Hurdle.
The Big Getaway turned over on chase debut. 3rd in Ballymore.
Ferny Hollow would have had no chance after 2 defeats, then won the bumper.
Appreciate It 3rd on debut. 2nd and strong fav in the bumper.
Melon, well beaten every year and then kept backing it up with 2nds in the CH and Marsh.
Concertista stuffed in first couple of races, then dotted up in the mares novice

Obviously you can argue for every horse i've listed there, there's others that dissapointed and then didn't kick on.
But very few times should a horse be written off after one run.
Even more so when it's a beginners chase.
The trainers horses are known to not peak at this stage of the season.
Everything suggests he wants a longer trip.
The horse got well beaten on seasonal debut last year.

He got beat 2 lengths today.
Finished 3rd.
And despite taking a few fences to warm up got much better as the race went on and looked like he'd pick the race up turning in.

Writing off a Willie Mullins horse on the back of that performance, with everything we know.
Is mad imo

Agree with the above, he looked fat as a pig, and defo needed the run.

Positives - He settled better and wasn’t as keen. RSA definitely the right race for him. Pushed out to 40/1 with sky (will wait and back him when he gets declared next)

Negatives~ His Jumping in the main was poor, and this needs to improve considerably if he’s going to serve it up top of the market

[FinalFurlong91]

Agree with the above, he looked fat as a pig, and defo needed the run.

Positives - He settled better and wasn’t as keen. RSA definitely the right race for him. Pushed out to 40/1 with sky (will wait and back him when he gets declared next)

Negatives~ His Jumping in the main was poor, and this needs to improve considerably if he’s going to serve it up top of the market

His jumping was very poor at the start but he warmed into and it was perfectly fine in the second half of the race

With his novice hurdle back class happy to give him the benefit of the doubt especially over 2m3f

1st in grade 1s at DRF and Punchestown, second to Bob who was simply much faster than him at Cheltenham

He loses again next time then things become different as of now the main thing is hes had a run early enough to get 2 more in before the festival

[FinalFurlong91]

Of Gaillard Du Mesnil, the trainer added: “He was a little disappointing and he might have just needed the run. He’ll come on from that.”

[charlie]

His jumping was very poor at the start but he warmed into and it was perfectly fine in the second half of the race

With his novice hurdle back class happy to give him the benefit of the doubt especially over 2m3f

1st in grade 1s at DRF and Punchestown, second to Bob who was simply much faster than him at Cheltenham

He loses again next time then things become different as of now the main thing is he's had a run early enough to get 2 more in before the festival

Does in close at the 1st, awkward landing after 2nd and jumping the 3rd high constitute as very poor for a novice learning his trade? It certainly wasn't terrible.

I agree re his novice hurdle back class and trip ?, certainly means he can be afforded leniency IMO cause as you say, when he got racing his jumping was good.

[FinalFurlong91]

Does in close at the 1st, awkward landing after 2nd and jumping the 3rd high constitute as very poor for a novice learning his trade? It certainly wasn't terrible.

I agree re his novice hurdle back class and trip ?, certainly means he can be afforded leniency IMO cause as you say, when he got racing his jumping was good.

He didnt seem to know what to do at the start but after a few he looked to start enjoying it and attacked a few of them

33s is way too big, he has more latent ability than almost all of the horses ahead of him in the market

[BigChaang]

Exactamundo.

Not saying he wins this. But people on here so quick to jump on things.

Brandy Love wins, they ejaculate quicker than the real McCoy....

GDM loses and he's got no chance.

I have to agree with you Jack , Please remember it was a " Beginners chase " , Willie apparently said he thought G.d.M.
was fit and ready pre race , but post race thought he'd improve for it.- racing t,v.

[Leman14]

I haven't given up on GDM, but an uninspiring chasing debut like that, just makes GDC's price even more ridiculous.
Best priced 11/2 and we don't even know if he can jump a fence!

Bravemansgame, best priced 11/2 and he certainly can jump a fence!!!
Ahoy Senor, best priced 6/1 and whilst it's debatable whether he is an effective jumper, he has at least looked very impressive.


I think that it's fair to say that from the Ballymore last year, BMG has improved for a fence, whilst GDM certainly hasn't (yet).

[FinalFurlong91]

Bravemansgame is gonna put the jumping of the rest of the horses in this under an extreme examination

[Lobos]

GDM won't be going over that sort of distance again. Blatantly needs 3miles+. Probably needed the run as well but it'll be RSA or NHC for him. Capodanno looks a proper NHC type.

[Exar Essay]

GDM won't be going over that sort of distance again. Blatantly needs 3miles+. Probably needed the run as well but it'll be RSA or NHC for him. Capodanno looks a proper NHC type.

I’ve long been in the 3m camp. Never even considered NHC. Too much class for that. But watching that … he’s very one paced over fences isn’t he? Maybe the NHC could be an option. Definitely don’t see him over 2 and a half tho … unlike Willie.

[DenmanSacre]

I didn't think GDM was too bad. Obviously needed the run and hopefully this makes Willie's mind up that the Turners would be completely the wrong race. I'd expect a much better performance next time.

I think we can be quick to write horses off after a 'bad' debut, but Ahoy Senor fell on his debut over fences and then put in a brilliant performance at Newbury.

If you look at some of the winners of this race over the last 10 years:

Might Bite beaten first time over fences over 2 and a half.
TOTG beaten over 2 and a half before winning.
Presenting Percy beaten over 2m6 and 2 and a half before winning.
Blaklion beaten over 2 and a half before winning
O’Faolains Boy beaten over 2 and a half before winning
Lord Windermere beaten over 2m and 2m4 before winning

Of those remaining, Bob's Worth lost twice over 3m, Champ fell and Don Poli and Monkfish were unbeaten.

Losing a race, especially over the mid distance, is not a bad thing for this race.

[thorne365]

Nor is the second part of this statement in my opinion. It only shows that a horse that has run an uneven pace is better than the other horses that have run in the same race however they've run in it. It doesn't necessarily mean a higher ceiling. Energumene would have been expected to win that race pretty much however it was run. He is so much better than the opposition that it neither enhances or diminishes his claim, and therefore it makes no sense to mark up the performance because there is no basis to do so other than an individuals opinion of doing so.

edit - didn't realise i was so far behind - diesregard!