2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Eggs]

What's the consensus on GDS, here if good enough or else the 4 miler?

….Hills offer 40-1 win tomorrow & a/r at Festival.

[DenmanSacre]

….Hills offer 40-1 win tomorrow & a/r at Festival.

That's a good price. Shame I'm restricted to pennies by WH

[FinalFurlong91]

Stattler looked much more a candidate for this than the NHC

He took a bit of a keen hold at times early on and cruised into it over 2m5f

Certainly didn't look like a boat for the NHC

[Altior]

Definitely not a boat has gears. Settled well after a dodgy first couple of jumps. Really nice looking chaser.

GDS was very poor.

[Madmoose]

Stattler looked much more a candidate for this than the NHC

He took a bit of a keen hold at times early on and cruised into it over 2m5f

Certainly didn't look like a boat for the NHC

You need gears for the NHC anyway the way they crawl for most of that race.

Lets see him when up in Grade as he was poor when in better company last year.

[FinalFurlong91]

Definitely not a boat has gears. Settled well after a dodgy first couple of jumps. Really nice looking chaser.

GDS was very poor.

The way he was swatted aside by GDM and GDC over hurdles IF they can jump they must have huge chances in this

[Altior]

The way he was swatted aside by GDM and GDC over hurdles IF they can jump they must have huge chances in this

Fingers crossed!

[FinalFurlong91]

You need gears for the NHC anyway the way they crawl for most of that race.

Lets see him when up in Grade as he was poor when in better company last year.

They only crawled last year with professional jockeys

The amateurs normally go plenty quicker dont they or is that a wild assumption iv just made up

[Eggs]

….BV still go 33-1 Stattler for this, as low as 12-1 Hills.

[isitmarchyet]

Townend on Stattler:

“He’s similar to the first fella (Blue Lord) in that he loves jumping fences," said the winning rider.

"He’s matured as well and they have both made the transition really well.

“He showed a turn of foot from the back of the second last up to the line that surprised me a bit. He picked up Fighter Allennicely.

“It’s a perfect start for him and you would imagine he will make into a staying chaser. It was an ideal trip to start him over.”

https://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Townend---Mullins-double-up-with-Stattler&prid=225662

[Lobos]

Stattler very impressive today. I'd say this race is fav but Marsh would come into equation now with the pace he showed.

[Istabraq]

Stattler very impressive today. I'd say this race is fav but Marsh would come into equation now with the pace he showed.

Is he quoted for the Turners ?

[Lobos]

Is he quoted for the Turners ?

Dunno. Have him TWAR so don't care

[The Giant Bolster]

This race is shaping up like a potential classic.
But also possibly lacking in numbers.
If the 2 UK based horses avoid each other and continue to impress I could see many UK trainers ducking the race.
Obviously we've not seen Mullins best 3 milers just yet, but we have seen some promising runs from other Irish horses like Gabynako, Beacons Edge, Farouk D'alene.

If one or 2 of Mullins looks special then I could see some of the Irish looking elsewhere too.

I think what I'm saying is the four miler and Marsh might end up with more runners we thought might end up here, than expected.
I very much doubt Bob Olinger would run for example. (I never really did)

Plenty of time for it to cut up yet though.

I think this is spot on.

I had a quick look at best RPRs heading into the RSA over the last five years.

BMG has already recorded a 160 and Ahoy Senor a 161.

In the last five years, only 11 horses out of 50 have gone into the race with a 160+ RPR run under their belt and eight placed or won. Only eight horses have recorded 161+ and only one (Easy Game) did not place or win. Those that have had a 161+ are:

Monkfish
Might Bite
Allaho
Whisper
Presenting Percy
Easy Game
Topofthegame
Monalee

So Ahoy Senor is in very strong company.

Obviously they have to make it to the Festival healthy. But we still have GdC and GdM to run and may not have seen the best from Vanillier, Beacon Edge, Gabynako and others.

So I think this definitely makes it more likely that Bob Olinger goes Marsh and Stattler NHC (along with ontheropes). And definitely great if you have a good position on BMG and Ahoy Senor.

Really hope they all make it there healthy, would be a fantastic "RSA".

[Saxon Warrior]

I think this is spot on.

I had a quick look at best RPRs heading into the RSA over the last five years.

BMG has already recorded a 160 and Ahoy Senor a 161.

In the last five years, only 11 horses out of 50 have gone into the race with a 160+ RPR run under their belt and eight placed or won. Only eight horses have recorded 161+ and only one (Easy Game) did not place or win. Those that have had a 161+ are:

Monkfish
Might Bite
Allaho
Whisper
Presenting Percy
Easy Game
Topofthegame
Monalee

So Ahoy Senor is in very strong company.

Obviously they have to make it to the Festival healthy. But we still have GdC and GdM to run and may not have seen the best from Vanillier, Beacon Edge, Gabynako and others.

So I think this definitely makes it more likely that Bob Olinger goes Marsh and Stattler NHC (along with ontheropes). And definitely great if you have a good position on BMG and Ahoy Senor.

Really hope they all make it there healthy, would be a fantastic "RSA".

All sounds like common sense to me.

Just need to see Galopin, Gaillard and Capodanno out for WPM, to confirm ability over fences.