2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[TiggerRoll]

He ran the season before in december, but was pulled up in a beginners chase. So he was a second season novice.

sorry, yep hadn’t spotted that. Thought he was just a very early starter

[TiggerRoll]

Hi all - new to the forum but been fantastic to read all your thoughts so far. Hopefully be able to contribute one or two along the way.

I’m surprised that Ontheropes isn’t in this market given his prominence for the Ladbrokes Trophy betting. He looks to be on a steep upward curve to me and if he were to win the Ladbrokes, beating Eklat De Rire, surely he’s interesting for all the open staying chases?

I’ve had a bet on him for the Gold Cup (66s WH) given the similar profile to Total Recall and the fact that I don’t think Willie has the strongest hand there so he could soon spring in the market a little but it would be a big change from his M.O. to run a (second season) novice in such a race.

PP have gone 33/1 which seems very fair. Obvious issue of having 3 possible targets but given yard record with second season novices not going to NHC as pointed out, this surely becomes favourite?

[Loubell]

One horse who could be overpriced in the current market is Craigneiche, currently BP 33/1 in places. The race has a number of win/placed runners who have either won or placed over the intermediate distance as a hurdler recently. Topofthegame & Presenting Percy both having won the Coral Cup.

Nicky Henderson has had Whisper coming from more than one season hurdling & also a previous Coral Cup winner finish 2nd in the race.

The hurdle rating of Craigneiche being below the recent expectation of the winner can be offset by being a Graded hurdle winner on his 3rd start before finishing a comfortable 2nd in the Coral Cup. With the comments from Henderson, which you need to take with a pinch of salt, this has to be his graded 3 mile novice chaser if good enough.

[Outlaw]

One horse who could be overpriced in the current market is Craigneiche, currently BP 33/1 in places. The race has a number of win/placed runners who have either won or placed over the intermediate distance as a hurdler recently. Topofthegame & Presenting Percy both having won the Coral Cup.

Nicky Henderson has had Whisper coming from more than one season hurdling & also a previous Coral Cup winner finish 2nd in the race.

The hurdle rating of Craigneiche being below the recent expectation of the winner can be offset by being a Graded hurdle winner on his 3rd start before finishing a comfortable 2nd in the Coral Cup. With the comments from Henderson, which you need to take with a pinch of salt, this has to be his graded 3 mile novice chaser if good enough.

He should find plenty of improvement stepped up in trip this season, Hendo will campaign him like a graded horse of that I don't doubt. I mentioned the other day that I think he might be a rung under the leading lights in this sphere, but would be very interested in him if he ended up down the Ultima route but lots of water under the bridge first.

[Black Dog]

Hello Loubell,welcome to the forum. I looked at Craigneiche myself mainly because of his trainer. Although i passed him over for now he is lightly raced and open to improvement. However he needs to find plenty imo. The graded race he won was in fact a grade 3 handicap(which he won well),he's one to watch for sure but not convinced he's a grade 1 horse. BTW Presenting Percy won the Pertemps final and Topofthegame ran 2nd in the Coral Cup.

[Loubell]

I agree that improvement needs to be found to be considered, which I expect will come over a fence.

A couple of schoolboy errors there, apologies.

[Spectre]

PP have gone 33/1 which seems very fair. Obvious issue of having 3 possible targets but given yard record with second season novices not going to NHC as pointed out, this surely becomes favourite?

Yes I'm surprised OTR isn't in the RSA markets too. I've been waiting for a price from 365 for sometime now.

[Saxon Warrior]

Hi all - new to the forum but been fantastic to read all your thoughts so far. Hopefully be able to contribute one or two along the way.

I’m surprised that Ontheropes isn’t in this market given his prominence for the Ladbrokes Trophy betting. He looks to be on a steep upward curve to me and if he were to win the Ladbrokes, beating Eklat De Rire, surely he’s interesting for all the open staying chases?

I’ve had a bet on him for the Gold Cup (66s WH) given the similar profile to Total Recall and the fact that I don’t think Willie has the strongest hand there so he could soon spring in the market a little but it would be a big change from his M.O. to run a (second season) novice in such a race.

If OTR wins the Ladbroke he would go maybe 5/1 Fav for the RSA.

He needs pricing across the bookies for the RSA before we get too close to the Newbury race, in 3 weeks time..

[On The Fringe]

OTR is now priced at 33/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair for this.

[The Giant Bolster]

Apologies if I've missed it but anyone seen anything from Noel Meade about whether Beacon Edge goes here? I think bet365 only have him priced for the Marsh which is a surprise since I thought he'd go here.

[Lbur4288]

Rachael Blackmore has given Mr Incredible a peach there. Looks like he will need a step up in trip.

[Eggs]

Rachael Blackmore has given Mr Incredible a peach there. Looks like he will need a step up in trip.

….just said the same in the General Chat thread, I did the ‘win today & a/r’ offer and had given it up, nearly brought down on the first circuit.

[ToniC]

must have traded huge in running absolutely fantastic from Rachael

[Many Clouds]

must have traded huge in running absolutely fantastic from Rachael

I was on betfair ex watching the race, checked after, he hit 800 in running. Whoever layed that is gonna be a bit miffed

[ToniC]

I was on betfair ex watching the race, checked after, he hit 800 in running. Whoever layed that is gonna be a bit miffed

Mental some ride