2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Eggs]

Ahoy Senor Declared at Wetherby on Friday over 3 miles

…and a hot looking Colin Parker Chase at Carlisle on Sunday.

[Lobos]

…and a hot looking Colin Parker Chase at Carlisle on Sunday.

That does look favourite now in view of the forecasts. Win that and he'll go really short!

[charlie]

Ahoy Senor Declared at Wetherby on Friday over 3 miles

Happy to be proven wrong, but Ahoy Senor's win LTO felts a lot like a fresh horse taking advantage of tired horses with tough seasons behind them. Taking Aintree and Punchestown form literally is the fast way to the ante-post poor house IMO and because Tom Segal likes him his price is as short as 16/1, which just doesn't appeal. I love it when smaller stables get one and Lucinda Russell might have one in AS, but with a view to March I'd much rather side with the Irish ante-post, and then change my view if AS does something to change my view. Sure, I might miss out on some value, and the Irish price dominance is frustrating, but it also holds British trained horses at more reasonable prices post race, so not backing now, but may in the future.

[Atlantic Viking]

He just needs some bloody rain now !

Seems to be a bit forecast but it'll need to come if he needs it, i'm not far from the course and it's been very windy the last 24hrs or so and counting. I see on the RP that they're watering.

[jono]

Along with a few in the race - I'm interested to see how Vanillier gets on on Friday.
I'm not completely sold on him as of yet.
But he's an Albert Bartlett winner. And a very good one at that.

2m3, against that field. He looks like he'll need every yard of 3 miles, a comment echoed by Cromwell recently.
If he jumps well but still meets defeat, I may look to back if anyone pushes him out, especially if he gets pushed out towards 20/1+

[Quevega]

Along with a few in the race - I'm interested to see how Vanillier gets on on Friday.
I'm not completely sold on him as of yet.
But he's an Albert Bartlett winner. And a very good one at that.

2m3, against that field. He looks like he'll need every yard of 3 miles, a comment echoed by Cromwell recently.
If he jumps well but still meets defeat, I may look to back if anyone pushes him out, especially if he gets pushed out towards 20/1+

Big advantage for this type if you have B365, as they almost have to push them for a bit, cos of their terms.

[Lbur4288]

Along with a few in the race - I'm interested to see how Vanillier gets on on Friday.
I'm not completely sold on him as of yet.
But he's an Albert Bartlett winner. And a very good one at that.

2m3, against that field. He looks like he'll need every yard of 3 miles, a comment echoed by Cromwell recently.
If he jumps well but still meets defeat, I may look to back if anyone pushes him out, especially if he gets pushed out towards 20/1+

I'm interested to see what tactics are employed on Vanillier as he's definitely seen to better effect when raced prominently. I do agree he needs further and if Grand Paradis forecast odds of 10/3 are right then I will be siding with him for this particular race.

[Kevloaf]

Along with a few in the race - I'm interested to see how Vanillier gets on on Friday.
I'm not completely sold on him as of yet.
But he's an Albert Bartlett winner. And a very good one at that.

2m3, against that field. He looks like he'll need every yard of 3 miles, a comment echoed by Cromwell recently.
If he jumps well but still meets defeat, I may look to back if anyone pushes him out, especially if he gets pushed out towards 20/1+

Probably end up with a related multiple if it looks a good race.

Marsh & Brown


Just need them both to look excellent and neither lose anything in defeat.
With Another of them close up and first on the handicap shortlist

[OverTheLast]

Beacon Edge is well up to winning that beginners on Friday

[Spectre]

Along with a few in the race - I'm interested to see how Vanillier gets on on Friday.
I'm not completely sold on him as of yet.
But he's an Albert Bartlett winner. And a very good one at that.

2m3, against that field. He looks like he'll need every yard of 3 miles, a comment echoed by Cromwell recently.
If he jumps well but still meets defeat, I may look to back if anyone pushes him out, especially if he gets pushed out towards 20/1+

The three I have at the head of my list for the RSA at the moment are Galopin des Champs, Ahoy Senor, and Vanillier.

I much prefer an RSA horse to start out over shorter trips like Vanillier is and Ahoy Senor isn't.

I'm sure someone will know, but when was the last time an RSA winner started out the season over three miles? I have a feeling there is a pretty significant stat that beginning to emerge.

[Spectre]

I should read my own diary and take notice of work I've already done, as the stat is in there against the race. All of the last 20 winners started there season at less than three miles.

That's a big stat Ahoy Senor will need to defy.

[FinalFurlong91]

Beacon Edge is well up to winning that beginners on Friday

Hes definitely the best horse in the race at this stage

[Istabraq]

I'm sure someone will know, but when was the last time an RSA winner started out the season over three miles? I have a feeling there is a pretty significant stat that beginning to emerge.

I suspect it may be Might Bite, I can't remember the horse ever running over less than 3m…

[Madmoose]

I should read my own diary and take notice of work I've already done, as the stat is in there against the race. All of the last 20 winners started there season at less than three miles.

That's a big stat Ahoy Senor will need to defy.

Will be broken eventually, he was due to run over shorter last week and if dry on Friday he will be pulled again I guess.

[Spectre]

I suspect it may be Might Bite, I can't remember the horse ever running over less than 3m…

He started out over two miles three furlongs Ista. Definitely none in the last 20 years. I've just gone back and checked my own work.