2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Liverpoolchamp]

Wouldn’t be so quick as to just dismiss what the trainer said so quickly! Can back it at 16/1 now on the exchanges!

[Istabraq]

The point here though is that 365 aren't doing themselves any favours. They have had a significant edge with antepost cashout this for some considerable time. If you have an account they have been go to, and their antepost turnover will have dwarfed all the other firms.

Now people are losing trust and faith, because previously they were reliable and appeared to treat punters with a degree of respect. That's been blown out of the water this year, and I suspect most antepost punters using them now have them at the bottom of the pile in terms of trust.

All those years to create a position at the top of the bookmaking pile, and they've pretty much ruined that position in a very short period of time, because people are now hanging on to bets they wouldn't have made if they thought that 365 were going to do this.

Of course they're entitled to do as they wish, but by doing so they will lose significant turnover and all the goodwill they've built up. I think we've all said at some point or another 365 are the best bookmaker out there. Not now though, because of the way they've approached the cashout market people have lost trust. Not just for the Festival. Other antepost racing markets will be one's to steer clear of too, as will antepost football, F1, etc, etc.

It’s a conversation for another thread but it won’t be long before the affordability limits comes in and no-one will be able to have a bet, bookmakers business will be limited to the two bob Saturday union jack players and the wheel spinners…

[archie]

Those RPRs on the racecard are all wrong apart from BMG's aren't they? Like 142 is the best RPR Neston Park has ever achieved. No idea why he has 177 next to his name!

Is this one for the stupid questions?

Those are adjusted RPRs on the card. Best RPR adjusted to 12 stone from the allocated weight. Neston Park = 142 (best RPR) + 35 (9st7lb to 12st) = 177.

Of course, he won't carry 9-7 in the race so, if you follow them, RPRs are only meaningful after final decs unless you take the time to do your own estimate of changes from entry RPRs.

[Spectre]

It’s a conversation for another thread but it won’t be long before the affordability limits comes in and no-one will be able to have a bet, bookmakers business will be limited to the two bob Saturday union jack players and the wheel spinners…

Indeed. It's really isn't looking good.

I wonder just how much the wheel-spinners are the problem here too. Gaming I suspect is a large part of the addiction problem. I'm surprised more isn't made of how they advertise and give free spins to hook people.

[Quevega]

Anything that is addictive that requires no skill.
Should quite rightly be banned or restrictions placed upon it.
You have to protect the idiots/vulnerable in society.

Other forms of gambling (that are more skills based), require more sophisticated methods of control, and this has to be balanced on both sides.
Like the guy who mentioned on TV the other day, how good firms are at identifying winning accounts (most temporary as well). And shutting them down.
Surely it's as easy to spot accounts that are bleeding money over the long term, and then seek to explore affordability and addiction issues accordingly.

An annual review system, or more regular, not just what we can look at but one they can then grade the account on.
A traffic light system. I'm pretty sure they have this, but for the profitable accounts mainly.
It's not fucking hard.

The simple fact that you can be restricted from sports betting with a firm, with a temporary winning record but losing account record over the long term, but be allowed to piss money away in the casino section is plain wrong.

The Government should be looking at the bookmakers primarily and not the punters.

[FredFlintstone]

Apologies if this has already been posted. WMullins reflecting on the weekend in his sporting life column.

Galopin Des Champs finished off very impressively in the Grade One on Sunday.

He was a little bit novicey down the back but this was a Grade One chase against Grade One novices, compared to Christmas when he looked awesome going a fraction slower.

But it’s all good in regards to getting all that education in, and still winning. He could easily go up in trip but I love the way he jumps. You wonder when a horse goes up trip, can they keep that up for three miles, but at least you know he’ll stay.


Willie Mullins column: Leopardstown winners including Chacun Pour Soi, Galopin Des Champs and Sir Gerhard (sportinglife.com)

[Moby123]

Apologies if this has already been posted. WMullins reflecting on the weekend in his sporting life column.

Galopin Des Champs finished off very impressively in the Grade One on Sunday.

He was a little bit novicey down the back but this was a Grade One chase against Grade One novices, compared to Christmas when he looked awesome going a fraction slower.

But it’s all good in regards to getting all that education in, and still winning. He could easily go up in trip but I love the way he jumps. You wonder when a horse goes up trip, can they keep that up for three miles, but at least you know he’ll stay.


Willie Mullins column: Leopardstown winners including Chacun Pour Soi, Galopin Des Champs and Sir Gerhard (sportinglife.com)

Festival Novices it is

[Star De Mohaison]

To quote Willie "Galopin Des Champs finished off very impressively in the Grade One on Sunday." "You wonder when a horse goes up trip, can they keep that up for three miles, but at least you know he’ll stay."

So "finished off impressively" and "but at least you know he'll stay".

I really want him in the Festival Novices Chase and this is the biggest indicator yet that he could be heading this way IMO.

[FredFlintstone]

He is 2.1 on the exchange for this today, I would say it is very likely he will end up here unless something was to happen to Bob Olinger.

[Odin]

Anything that is addictive that requires no skill.
Should quite rightly be banned or restrictions placed upon it.
You have to protect the idiots/vulnerable in society.

Other forms of gambling (that are more skills based), require more sophisticated methods of control, and this has to be balanced on both sides.
Like the guy who mentioned on TV the other day, how good firms are at identifying winning accounts (most temporary as well). And shutting them down.
Surely it's as easy to spot accounts that are bleeding money over the long term, and then seek to explore affordability and addiction issues accordingly.

An annual review system, or more regular, not just what we can look at but one they can then grade the account on.
A traffic light system. I'm pretty sure they have this, but for the profitable accounts mainly.
It's not fucking hard.

The simple fact that you can be restricted from sports betting with a firm, with a temporary winning record but losing account record over the long term, but be allowed to piss money away in the casino section is plain wrong.

The Government should be looking at the bookmakers primarily and not the punters.

Unfortunately it's not about helping people really as we all know, it's about keeping profits going and the one way to make sure you keep a profit is to keep those games where you've got a guaranteed advantage going. Fortunately for the bookies, some of the most influential MPs in the matters that count to them are more than happy to accept 4 or 5 figure valued hospitality tickets to prominent sports events (e.g. the Euros) from them, so are ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED to be impartial in the outcomes of their recommendations.

I know we all know that, and I know I'm more fortunate(?) than some of you guys in that betting is a leisure activity for me, but the above explains why I just can't get mad about it - never going to win and all that. Fully understand why it riles people up though.

[Benjy23]

To quote Willie "Galopin Des Champs finished off very impressively in the Grade One on Sunday." "You wonder when a horse goes up trip, can they keep that up for three miles, but at least you know he’ll stay."

So "finished off impressively" and "but at least you know he'll stay".

I really want him in the Festival Novices Chase and this is the biggest indicator yet that he could be heading this way IMO.

Is it just me that this doesn't make sense to? Wonders if he can keep it up but knows he'll stay?

I know the 'all horses stay' line. Fully expect that response.

[Istabraq]

I've been following the exchange prices since Sundays race and GDC has continued to shorten since, 2.12 to back 2.34 to lay currently.
No question the exchange is a far better guide than any interview Mullins might give....

[Quevega]

Is it just me that this doesn't make sense to? Wonders if he can keep it up but knows he'll stay?

I know the 'all horses stay' line. Fully expect that response.

I think it's along the lines of - exuberant jumpers tend to take a little bit more out of themselves.
Most of the more successful staying chasers tend to be very economical when jumping, low and fast.

Galopin tends to go for the big one rather than take another step.
I think most trainers think this can be unsustainable in the long term. For stayers anyway.

[Odin]

Is it just me that this doesn't make sense to? Wonders if he can keep it up but knows he'll stay?

I know the 'all horses stay' line. Fully expect that response.

I think he was musing that the exhuberant jumping would take more out of him at 3m than 2m4f, which it would - but not enough not to send him here I don't think

[Benjy23]

But then how does he know he'll stay? If he's concerned the jumping will take too much out of him. Maybe it's just me!

Anyway, the end of the quote and the exchange price strongly suggest he's heading here. Which I think most of us are happy with.