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Originally posted by Stormez
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Haha sadly no dog but I’ll be on course with my ears open that’s for sure! -
I'm confident they will come here now with Galopin des Champs
I was always dubious to the speculation over the last week or so.
By no means did I think it couldn't happen. But I always felt this weekend would steer the decision, and March wouldn't even be considered until they got the DRF out the way.
He did very little wrong today.
And was in truth probably never going to quite live up to the hype from his chase debut.
It's a sign of just how good he is that such a performance can be deemed just a a tad underwelming.
The race fell apart to a degree given the fallers. Certainly Capodanno was the one that would have given us the Bob Olinger formline.
But the fact his jumping wasn't as deadly as on debut (albeit in a tougher test today) means I think they'll go the route that was most likely the loose plan for most of the year.
I don't buy the 6 year old argument.
Willie has bucked that trend twice himself with two 6 year old winners
And the likes of Allaho and Wounded Warrior also placing at 6 years old. Al Boum Photo was also booked for at least 3rd when falling at the last.
6 year olds for Willie Mullins have done well.
And essentially it'll just come to weighing up
Bravemansgame
Ahoy Senor
Fury Road (beaten)
Threeunderthrufive
vs
Bob Olinger
Lhomme Press
He's seemingly that god that no trip is really going to hinder his chance.
But it's an absolute no brainer who and which race you'd rather target imo.
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Maybe try opening your eyes as well. Don't want you getting mowed down by Asterion ForlongeOriginally posted by charlie View PostComment
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Bravemansgame's form is stacking up quite nicely to be fair... but agree on the whole.Originally posted by jono View PostComment
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Ahoy Senor didn't look too shabby at the weekend either. Could be a great race. Far better than last year's garbage!!Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostComment
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LP I believe is ground dependent which race he’s in.Originally posted by jono View Post
Think there’s some underestimate of BMG here.
Any horse up against him needs to jump well.
If the opposition is a crucial thing in the decision than it’s closer than you think imo.
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BMG is certainly a credible opponent.Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post
And has visually probably put the most consistent rounds of jumping across all novice chasers this season.
I'm not particularly taken by him beating Fusil Raffles or certainly Itchy Feet.
Ahoy Senor's beating at Kempton would be the one. Though I still can't make my mind up with AS. About just how good he is/could be.
But I do think Bob Olinger is considered the toughest opponent he'll face across both races.
Certainly in Ireland.
And of the UK runners - i'd say L'Homme Presse has been putting in performances that would have him fighting for the position of best UK novice chaser now.
I don't think Mullins will be "worried" about any horse in particular (even Bob) for GdC.
I think he'd fancy his horse against whoever if he was forced into a match.
But I do think the opposition on the whole, in both races will play a factor.
As we know he'll give his horses the best chance of winning.Comment
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How do you define 'giving his horses the best chance of winning'?Originally posted by jono View Post
I've always looked at it as [option 1] giving his best horse the best chance of winning and then moving around from there (i.e. GDC in my opinion has a better and more natural chance in the RSA vs the Turners based on everything I've seen across the last two seasons). Do you agree with this or do you define it more as [option 2] the group of horses that Willie has (i.e. as his best novice chaser, GDC has the best chance of beating Bob, therefore should go Turners and (e.g.) Capodanno could try and beat BMG and Ahoy Senor in the RSA)?
I think all of our opinions on where GDC, SG or DD are defined by what we understand 'giving his horses the best chance of winning' to be so it's interesting to see exactly how you and everyone else defines it (option 1 or 2)?Comment
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I know all the talk is about the Supreme being the race of the week, but this could be it for me. If GDC throws in a perfect round yesterday and beats all by 20 lengths, it's game over. But he didn't. I was still bloody impressed and he should be a big fav for this but there are very worth challengers here. The one point I would make about yesterday in the defence of GDC is that the pace set by FD appeared to be so relentless that it forced big errors from three of the runners, including Fury Road's massive blunder three out. FD himself then went out like a light with 4f to go. So in that context, that there were only a couple of scruffy jumps from GDC when up in the van might actually be a positive.
Running through the potential card, we have GDC who has a great cruising speed but might be a little under pressure with his jumping. He seems to find that extra gear at the end too, albeit you wouldn't call it a turn of foot. More a turn of the screw.
We have BMG who is potentially the best jumper in the game, not just in novice company, but who perhaps lacks a bit of speed. There is a slight doubt about how he finishes off his races which might be a weakness against the very best. There is also a small concern for the hill given how hew faded in the Ballymore last year and was nearly chinned by Bear Ghylls.
Then we have AS who tried something which didn't work at Kempton. Now they know what doesn't work against BMG they'll surely set a decent tempo at the front at Chelts, as they have in most other races. Looks better going left handed too. The pace he sets might affect GDC if Willie's comments about GDC being out of his comfort zone are to be believed (not sure I'm a believer).
Then we have a great supporting cast too. Capodano was hardly disgraced against Bob. If Bob is the second coming then finishing 5 lengths down might be bloody good form. Willie showed his hand yesterday - he doesn't want him in the NHC.
Fury Road seems to be a different animal since having cheek pieces fitted. Poor round of jumping and one howler yesterday ruined that run. That could be a bad day at the office or it could be the speed of the race which forced errors (which would be a bigger problem but that pace from FD looked ridiculous yesterday).
L'homme Presse is more likely to the Marsh in my view, but if routed here would have to be a threat. Does everything correctly and will be in the mix.
Then we get to the pretty decent runners such as GDM, Threeunderthrufive, Farouk D'alene, Beacon Edge and Dusart, who whilst unlikely to win won't just be there to make up the numbers. In my view, they are all at least as good as last years' 2nd.
I think this could be a stonking race. It's my favourite race of the week too as it is the race which will throw up the main debut GC contenders for next year. Going to be a lot harder for Lobos to cover his virgins next year than it is this year!Comment
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Nice to see Paddy cutting GDC for this and pushing him out for the Turners.Comment
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They follow betfair when it's a mature market and the exchange now go 2.6 to back 2.7 to lay, so a significant shift from before yesterdays race...Originally posted by Atlantic Viking View PostComment
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Well done to all those who stayed strong.
Not out of the woods yet though!Comment
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Just want Sir G Supreme and JWM Albert for the treble.Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostComment
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