2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Saxon Warrior]

Not strictly true - move that an even pace [when compared to standard for course/distance to understand the actual level of the run] gives the best opportunity to run to the ceiling of a horses ability. Uneven pace uses more energy so means that the horse has a ceiling higher than shown by time / result alone

Like Energumene 10 days ago.

Time people focussed on Concertista winning a bunched finish in the Mares race being a similar time to Energumene.

Sectional Timing folk focused on the Mares race being run at a more even pace by Concertista and Jeremy's Flame, and marked up Energumene for running an unevenly fast pace with Notebook then still holding off the efficient runners at the end.

Both raw times and sectional times are interesting to understand, but watching the race is still also key.

If Jeremy's Flame can look like passing Concertista in another few yards then Concertista's debut run was good but not earth shattering.

......Or else Jeremy's Flame should be second fav in the Mares Chase, anshe shouldn't be as she hasn't won in 7 Chase starts.

Plus Riviere D'Etel has thrashed her this season, and has improved greatly since.
That was RDs chase debut and Jeremy's Flame's 5th chase start.

[FinalFurlong91]

Not sure what to expect from GDM tomorrow as he seemed to improve tonnes for his first run last year

[charlie]

Not sure what to expect from GDM tomorrow as he seemed to improve tonnes for his first run last year

I'm hoping he wins and wins well. He starts a little later this year so perhaps he's fitter, but thats pure speculation. 25/1 is a no brainer IMO, could easily end up Willies number one here

[Clinker]

I'm hoping he wins and wins well. He starts a little later this year so perhaps he's fitter, but thats pure speculation. 25/1 is a no brainer IMO, could easily end up Willies number one here

I'm torn between going here or the Turner/Marsh, it's hard to guess which is the target. Really not wanting to cover them both, but presently there's no choice.

[billymag]

Thought he looked much more suited to the DRF extra trip than the Ballymore, he looks a rare opportunity in the antepost markets of a genuinely overpriced horse with solid form in the book for all to see. Will be interesting to see how straight he is though first time up though if he blows up and gets beat ill be going back in again on him if he looks an ok jumper.

[charlie]

I'm torn between going here or the Turner/Marsh, it's hard to guess which is the target. Really not wanting to cover them both, but presently there's no choice.

Ok, I'll do my best to convince you.

Post Ballymore WPM said 'Gaillard Du Mesnil ran well but he was beaten by a much better horse on the day. Maybe he needs a bit further'. Big tick for 3m and the RSA.

WPM has mentioned middle distances, but said: 'He looks a fine horse to go novice chasing. He’ll want a trip over fences and jumps very well and will start off in a novice somewhere. As the season progresses he will be a stayer at trips like two-and-a-half miles'. To me, in Willie language, that screams start over shorter as he does with all his RSA horses, then progress to further. Big tick for the RSA.

Then you have his racing style. At Leopardstown pre-cheltenham he ran really well on soft/heavy ground, and appeared to stay all day. He hit the line hard, almost going away. In the Ballymore he was keen for a long way, made a mistake when taking the last behind BMG, but then stayed on to put 5L between himself and the third. Thats some going given the distance, manner of opposition, and how he raced throughout. On that evidence he wants further, and Willies language backs that up. Big tick for the RSA.

I don't see why Willie would be in a rush to tackle Bob again over 2m5f as he has loads of gears, and lots of the Saint Des Saint better types tend to be stayers. Breeding suggest further, tick for RSA.

Historically, GDM is right up there of WPM hurdlers going chasing, and I mean right at the very top. Willie has won the RSA 4 times in the last 20 years. Monkfish ran to an RPR high of 154 in the AB before going chasing. Don Poli ran to an RPR high of 153 in the Martin Pipe before going chasing. Cooldine ran to an RPR high of 150 before going chasing. Rule Supreme ran to a top RPR of 142 before going chasing. ABP, who probably would have won in 2018 (lets not start this again), achieved a top hurdle RPR of 145 before going chasing. Allaho who went off 5/2f in 2019 has ran to an RPR of 147 in the AB and a high of 148 over hurdles. Willies runner in 2017, Bellshill, had run to an RPR of 150 before going over fences and finishing 3rd in this. Shaneshill, who went down by half a length to Blaklion in 2016 ran to an RPR of 155 in the Supreme when he lost to Douvan.

I think GDM's run in the Ballymore can actually be marked up, because of the way he travelled.

My point is that no horse, winner or close, has run to a higher RPR or level in recent times for WPM than GDM, and I think a clean round of jumping and a win will see 25/1 go 10's*

*Got the dates wrong which people are all over like a tramp on hot chips

[Saxon Warrior]

charlie

I like GDM for today and like his RSA price too.

Do you think he will run twice in under 2 weeks?

[charlie]

charlie

I like GDM for today and like his RSA price too.

Do you think he will run twice in under 2 weeks?

Shit, I keep forgetting how far into December we are

Good point, probably not. If he doesn't have a hard race today then its possible, but you make an excellent point

Either way, I hope he's mustard

[Winging The Last]

My point is that no horse, winner or close, has run to a higher RPR or level in recent times for WPM than GDM, and I think a clean round of jumping and a win will see 25/1 go 10's, he'll then go Neville Hotels chase and the price will shorten further.

There's no way he'll run in the Neville Hotels Chase surely it's only in 13 days. Willie would never send a horse back out that quickly like him.

I would most likely say he will go to the Killiney Novice Chase at Punchestown in mid January over 2 1/2 miles (Race that Envoi won last year) or straight to the DRF but surely he will be wanting to get more runs into him. Plus with the DRF you would think GDC will start off in a beginners over Xmas and then the DRF G1 would be a perfect stepping stone on route to the FNC (Not ideal to have two runs but not much can be done this year)

[charlie]

There's no way he'll run in the Neville Hotels Chase surely it's only in 13 days. Willie would never send a horse back out that quickly like him.

I would most likely say he will go to the Killiney Novice Chase at Punchestown in mid January over 2 1/2 miles (Race that Envoi won last year) or straight to the DRF but surely he will be wanting to get more runs into him. Plus with the DRF you would think GDC will start off in a beginners over Xmas and then the DRF G1 would be a perfect stepping stone on route to the FNC (Not ideal to have two runs but not much can be done this year)

Read the exchange with Saxon above, I agree, got the dates wrong.

[Spectre]

Not strictly true - move that an even pace [when compared to standard for course/distance to understand the actual level of the run] gives the best opportunity to run to the ceiling of a horses ability. Uneven pace uses more energy so means that the horse has a ceiling higher than shown by time / result alone

Nor is the second part of this statement in my opinion. It only shows that a horse that has run an uneven pace is better than the other horses that have run in the same race however they've run in it. It doesn't necessarily mean a higher ceiling. Energumene would have been expected to win that race pretty much however it was run. He is so much better than the opposition that it neither enhances or diminishes his claim, and therefore it makes no sense to mark up the performance because there is no basis to do so other than an individuals opinion of doing so.

[Saxon Warrior]

There's no way he'll run in the Neville Hotels Chase surely it's only in 13 days. Willie would never send a horse back out that quickly like him.

I would most likely say he will go to the Killiney Novice Chase at Punchestown in mid January over 2 1/2 miles (Race that Envoi won last year) or straight to the DRF but surely he will be wanting to get more runs into him. Plus with the DRF you would think GDC will start off in a beginners over Xmas and then the DRF G1 would be a perfect stepping stone on route to the FNC (Not ideal to have two runs but not much can be done this year)

The DRF only has a 2M5F Grade 1 Chase.

So GDM in your route would have three mid-trip races, then which race at Cheltenham?

[Saxon Warrior]

Read the exchange with Saxon above, I agree, got the dates wrong.

Its Boxing Day next weekend (not this) charlie its speeding closer.

The World Darts started last night.
Thats always a sign we are almost there

[Winging The Last]

The DRF only has a 2M5F Grade 1 Chase.

So GDM in your route would have three mid-trip races, then which race at Cheltenham?

Well I wouldn't be surprised either way he goes at Cheltenham tbh. I don't think Willie or anyone would have an issue that his first trip over 3m was in the FNC with him. It's been done a few times with many horses going there.

I'm sure there aren't a huge amount of race options left (in the right time frames) between now and Cheltenham for him to put them all in 3m Graded Novice Chases and split them up so I think one of them will go for that race at the DRF and move up in distance to the FNC.

Also he sent Monkfish to that race before Cheltenham last season so whoever he sends there I think will be FNC bound (obviously if they perform well). And then AI & FH will be campaigned at 2m until the DRF and then I can see him splitting them up for Cheltenham in the Arkle and Marsh

[denman]

Nor is the second part of this statement in my opinion. It only shows that a horse that has run an uneven pace is better than the other horses that have run in the same race however they've run in it. It doesn't necessarily mean a higher ceiling. Energumene would have been expected to win that race pretty much however it was run. He is so much better than the opposition that it neither enhances or diminishes his claim, and therefore it makes no sense to mark up the performance because there is no basis to do so other than an individuals opinion of doing so.

He would of clocked a faster time - won by further - had he run more efficiently. Bar Notebook the rest ran more efficient.