2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Ray]

I suppose its how much stock you put in the punchestown performances, is it at the end of a long season or are these nags all still firing? I think its a bit of both, hes obviously mustard, but them other horses were a little over cooked

[TigerRolllllll]

He beat GG by 5l with Stattler a short head further back earning an RPR of 151.
GDC beat GG 12l with Stattler 1.25l further back in third earning an RPR of 161.
I must be missing something here if people have them closely matched...

Issue is we don’t know his target?

I will back him and double with both Ballymore form

[charlie]

[QUOTE=Istabraq;n329759]

He beat GG by 5l with Stattler a short head further back earning an RPR of 151.
GDC beat GG 12l with Stattler 1.25l further back in third earning an RPR of 161.
I must be missing something here if people have them closely matched...[/QUOTE]

Most would agree GDC was more impressive, but saying he's head and shoulders above GDM seems like overkill. Comparing pre and post Cheltenham form is fraught with pitfalls - why can't GDC be probably better than GDM without saying he's a lot better?

[Istabraq]

[QUOTE=charlie;n329782]

He beat GG by 5l with Stattler a short head further back earning an RPR of 151.
GDC beat GG 12l with Stattler 1.25l further back in third earning an RPR of 161.
I must be missing something here if people have them closely matched...[/QUOTE]

Most would agree GDC was more impressive, but saying he's head and shoulders above GDM seems like overkill. Comparing pre and post Cheltenham form is fraught with pitfalls - why can't GDC be probably better than GDM without saying he's a lot better?

Is the issue with my referencing GDC to be 'head and shoulders' above GDM ?
My opinion, and it is only an opinion, is that GDC will prove to be/is a considerably better stayer than GDC, I could term it several ways but this is the view that I currently have...

[charlie]

[QUOTE=Istabraq;n329805]

Is the issue with my referencing GDC to be 'head and shoulders' above GDM ?
My opinion, and it is only an opinion, is that GDC will prove to be/is a considerably better stayer than GDC, I could term it several ways but this is the view that I currently have...

No issue either way, I just thought a lot better might be a stretch! Given some of my ante post prices insta I'm praying you're bang on the money!

[taylorch1990]

[QUOTE=charlie;n329782]

He beat GG by 5l with Stattler a short head further back earning an RPR of 151.
GDC beat GG 12l with Stattler 1.25l further back in third earning an RPR of 161.
I must be missing something here if people have them closely matched...[/QUOTE]

Most would agree GDC was more impressive, but saying he's head and shoulders above GDM seems like overkill. Comparing pre and post Cheltenham form is fraught with pitfalls - why can't GDC be probably better than GDM without saying he's a lot better?

Totally agree got to factor the ground in as well GDM beat Stayers in proper staying conditions soft to heavy, whereas GDC has beat them on yielding ground which certainly suited him more than the opposition. I'd agree that they are the 2 stand outs yet to have run for this but at the prices I'd much favour GDM.

[nortonscoin200]

Difficult to tell who's best out of Galopin Des Champs and Gaillard Du Mesnil in my book.

The most compelling evidence is surely provided by Cheltenham Festival form which puts GDM (rpr155) a whisker ahead of GDC (154). But it really is too close to call.

I'm always a little wary of taking the form of horses that run well in the Martin Pipe (and GDC looked an absolute machine) too literally when it comes to assessing future potential.

The same goes for the form of horses who win at the Punchestown Festival where it proves a race too many for some of the major players.

Maybe that's a bias on my part that isn't supported by fact - and Saxon Warrior's research on Punchestown a few month ago certainly made me question my default position.

But I'd take GDM's second place in the Ballymore as the most reliable piece of form we have to go on.

From a punting perspective I'd say there are two outstanding bets in the FNC right now - Gaillard Du Mesnil at 25-1 and Bob Olinger at 20-1.

Neither might end up running in the race but I believe it's almost 50-50 for each of them that they'll end up here - and the prices are available with cash-out.

I missed the juicy early prices on Galopin Des Champs and finally got on board at 8-1 but I certainly wouldn't be chasing him at current odds.

[Istabraq]

Difficult to tell who's best out of Galopin Des Champs and Gaillard Du Mesnil in my book.

The most compelling evidence is surely provided by Cheltenham Festival form which puts GDM (rpr155) a whisker ahead of GDC (154). But it really is too close to call.

For me, and again it really is only my view, GDC was well plotted for that M Pipe race, hacked up beating another well plotted horse in The Langer Dan with a country mile back to the rest, GDC then improved further at Punchestown demolishing a bunch of reliable yardsticks.
Time will tell obviously but he is a seriously exciting staying chaser….

[archie]

I'd suggest that the relative prices reflect the current pecking order at Closutton.

[Spectre]

I'd suggest that the relative prices reflect the current pecking order at Closutton.

Yes that, and the doubt about which way Gaillard du Mesnil will go.

[TCH29]

Some really good points made. I agree with Charlie and a few others that GDM is the value. You could also look at this another way, in second guessing Mullins (risky, I know).

We all know fences are a different beast from hurdles and form doesn’t necessarily transfer from the latter to the former. But Willie knows that BO beats GDM if his jumping holds up, so why run him there? He’ll also almost certainly take on My Drogo in the Marsh, so not guaranteed 2nd either.

Willie has Appreciate It, Ferny Hollow (hopefully), GDM and GDC over fences. One of those has best Bob O. So he could line them up with AI in the Arkle, FH in the Marsh and the other two in the plate. Equally, I wasn’t really taken with Bob O’s jumping on the weekend. He didn’t look a natural to me. I’m sure others disagree.

We don’t know what AI and FH are like over fences yet, but given 12 months ago everyone thought FH was the quicker horse and better over 2m, is it possible FH goes Arkle, AI takes on BO, and the GDM/GDC go BANC.

Just thinking about what he has available I think it’s far far more likely GDM goes BANC than Marsh. And his price on his form looks very generous. I took a wild leap of faith back in March and got him at 33s. So…all the above could just be me trying to persuade myself it was a good bet, not one to file in the bin.

[Magpie]

Would definitely like to see Bob Olinger jump with a little more fluency next time out, a few slightly steep and also some low jumps. Obviously a massive engine, but it will be interesting how his jumping holds up with better and faster competition. Early days of course, and will probably improve at a rate of knots every race.

[Eggs]

Would definitely like to see Bob Olinger jump with a little more fluency next time out, a few slightly steep and also some low jumps. Obviously a massive engine, but it will be interesting how his jumping holds up with better and faster competition. Early days of course, and will probably improve at a rate of knots every race.

… i have no idea how the fences at Gowan Park compare to elsewhere but thought it interesting the jockey said after its race that they “take some jumping”.

[TigerRolllllll]

Some really good points made. I agree with Charlie and a few others that GDM is the value. You could also look at this another way, in second guessing Mullins (risky, I know).

We all know fences are a different beast from hurdles and form doesn’t necessarily transfer from the latter to the former. But Willie knows that BO beats GDM if his jumping holds up, so why run him there? He’ll also almost certainly take on My Drogo in the Marsh, so not guaranteed 2nd either.

Willie has Appreciate It, Ferny Hollow (hopefully), GDM and GDC over fences. One of those has best Bob O. So he could line them up with AI in the Arkle, FH in the Marsh and the other two in the plate. Equally, I wasn’t really taken with Bob O’s jumping on the weekend. He didn’t look a natural to me. I’m sure others disagree.

We don’t know what AI and FH are like over fences yet, but given 12 months ago everyone thought FH was the quicker horse and better over 2m, is it possible FH goes Arkle, AI takes on BO, and the GDM/GDC go BANC.

Just thinking about what he has available I think it’s far far more likely GDM goes BANC than Marsh. And his price on his form looks very generous. I took a wild leap of faith back in March and got him at 33s. So…all the above could just be me trying to persuade myself it was a good bet, not one to file in the bin.

Agree - plus GDM would have been much closer to Bob if not for what Rachael did going round bend to stop his run….brilliant move

[Quevega]

Agree - plus GDM would have been much closer to Bob if not for what Rachael did going round bend to stop his run….brilliant move

Funnily enough GDM seems to travel behind the bridle so is more suited to being a stayer, whereas GDC seems to be able to travel behind or on the bridle (like Bob), and these types seem to have more tactical speed and given a normal/even or good gallop are often much better equipped at mid trip or shorter distances, on average.

The sooner the trip lengthens though and given a good gallop the behind the bridle types tend to get the upper hand, more often than not. The speed obviously becomes less valuable versus the sustained pace/stamina.

Depends on how the race is run as to what separates them on the day, given they are all equally fit etc.

GDM looks the classier horse for that reason IMO.
But at the prices for the RSA at present I'd say the averages would say GDM is the better bet, because of the above.