2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Istabraq]

He started out over two miles three furlongs Ista. Definitely none in the last 20 years. I've just gone back and checked my own work.

Good stat to know then Spectre...

[Lobos]

Good stat to know then Spectre...

Proper gem going forward. Probably due to how grueling the RSA can be.

[Black Dog]

There's not been a french bred winner in the last 15 runners either,so cross off all FR & run over 3 miles plus on debut. Don't think that'll leave too many fancied ones.

[Saxon Warrior]

There's not been a french bred winner in the last 15 runners either,so cross off all FR & run over 3 miles plus on debut. Don't think that'll leave too many fancied ones.

That knocks virtually everything out, and a good reason to think Grand Paradis is a Marsh horse, and also that Bob Olinger should read that stat and have word with Henry about going to the RSA.

[Lbur4288]

There's not been a french bred winner in the last 15 runners either,so cross off all FR & run over 3 miles plus on debut. Don't think that'll leave too many fancied ones.

This made me go through the RSA betting to see which horses would still be left after crossing out these and although it's not this race I was thinking about, I did come across Jungle Boogie, another Mullins horse, who seems to have disappeared of the radar.

Jungle Boogie has a few parallels with Energumene at a glance. Both started in bumpers (JB one, Energumene two) before moving over hurdles the same season. Both had one run over hurdles (Energumene 2miles, Jungle Boogie 2m4) and we are now obviously at the point where we would need to see a Jungle Boogie entry to know where the similarities end. Both bolted up by wide margin victories in said hurdles debut (Energumene 19 lengths, Jungle Boogie 30 lengths to a horse that won next time out). I know it's a bit fanciful comparing the two as they don't actually have that much to go off but I think what it is that I am particularly aware of is the fact that Energumene only had the one run over hurdles before moving over to the larger obstacles the following season.

The fact that Willie stepped Jungle Boogie to 2m4f for his hurdle debut and the manner of which he won suggests he would get the longer distances too is catching my eye. Once I see an entry I may be enticed to back although its not as juicy as some other candidates at 20/1.

It's a bit pie in the sky borne from that little stat from Black Dog but I don't think it's totally useless as I have now found something to keep an eye out for if not necessarily for the RSA.

Edit - Forgot to mention that Willie is on record as saying Malcolm Denmark would love a runner at Cheltenham.

[Lobos]

That knocks virtually everything out, and a good reason to think Grand Paradis is a Marsh horse, and also that Bob Olinger should read that stat and have word with Henry about going to the RSA.

Yes please Saxon!

[Black Dog]

That knocks virtually everything out, and a good reason to think Grand Paradis is a Marsh horse, and also that Bob Olinger should read that stat and have word with Henry about going to the RSA.

Let's hope Henry listens It is an interesting stat though as 24/38 over the 15 races were 12/1 or less, including 6 runnings where French breds were favourites or joint favourites.

[Lobos]

Let's hope Henry listens It is an interesting stat though as 24/38 over the 15 races were 12/1 or less, including 6 runnings where French breds were favourites or joint favourites.

That is huge !Can't just be a coincidence.

[Black Dog]

It's food for thought,and the last winner was a 5yo in receipt of a10lb wfa allowance! It doesn't carry through to the GC though as we've had Kauto,LongRun,&Al Boum in the same period of time. There have been 4 FR winners of the Marsh/JLT since it's inception, from 39 runners,which is more like the numbers you'd expect.

[Altior]

Completely disregards the chat about French bred horses I know, but what are people's thoughts on Gaillard Du Mesnil for this? I heard rumours they'd keep him over hurdles on Twitter and on some podcast but with JDB out and the bingo between the main novice chasers Willie has, is this a possibility? I know GDC would appear the top dog and GDM is shorter for the Marsh but think this couple be a goer. 25/1 has me intrigued.

[Hurricane fly]

I thought/think GDM was made for it to be honest.

his best win was over 2m6 where he beat most of the Irish contingent and he is beaten by a turn of pace and Blackmores
brilliant ride in the Ballymore.
Bob O isn't going away from him at the line as he stays on up the hill.

[Atlantic Viking]

Completely disregards the chat about French bred horses I know, but what are people's thoughts on Gaillard Du Mesnil for this? I heard rumours they'd keep him over hurdles on Twitter and on some podcast but with JDB out and the bingo between the main novice chasers Willie has, is this a possibility? I know GDC would appear the top dog and GDM is shorter for the Marsh but think this couple be a goer. 25/1 has me intrigued.

I found it interesting that he got no mention at all in either the JTF or OJA books. He seems a proper forgotten horse, which is weird. His Ballymore run was very creditable, he loses the rail on the turn for home and gets cut off as Bravemansgame/Bob Olinger came across, gets just about on terms with BMG going to the last, makes a mistake but still manages to run well clear of him. Others can correct me happily because i'm still learning on this front, but to me he looked like he didn't particularly enjoy the ground, would prefer a bit more juice in it to my eye. There was plenty to like about him. Be interesting (hopefully!) to see what comes from Willies stable tour.

[Altior]

Exactly my thinking HF. A bit like Envoi last year, I think besides which one of Ferny and Appreciate It Willie throws at him, Bob Olinger will be a dodged horse. Seems to be the most fancied horse on social media since NH talk has warmed up again, even more so than AI and Ferny Hollow although they are getting plenty talk.

[Lobos]

I think GDM looks more a Stayer than GDC but it does seem that Mullins thinks GDC is the better of the 2. The JDB news could mean though that both will go for the RSA. Their initial entries will be crucial.

[Saxon Warrior]

I think GDM looks more a Stayer than GDC but it does seem that Mullins thinks GDC is the better of the 2. The JDB news could mean though that both will go for the RSA. Their initial entries will be crucial.

My thought on Gaillard Du Mesnil, is that Willie already knows that Bob Olinger brushed him aside easily at the Hurdles mid-trip, so I don’t believe that he would want to place him in the Marsh and probably suffer the same fate, over fences.

Wouldn’t look good to the owner to get pasted twice at the same trip by the same horse.
Hes already won a 2M6F Grade 1 Hurdle at the DRF on soft /heavy ground.

The winner of that race the year before was Latest Exhibition and he went 3M and some, novice chasing, as did the three behind him.

I think it’s highly likely that if GDM goes novice chasing he won’t take on Bob Olinger in the Marsh (if Bob continues to be top class in his new discipline).

With Ferny Hollow, Appreciate It and Blue Lord in his stable, among others, I think Willie looks to have the Arkle and Marsh pretty well covered without GDM.
Particularly as Hendo doesn’t have the quality of Shishkin and Chantry House to bag both of those prizes this season.