2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Kevloaf]

I absolutely get this logic on the surface of it. However maybe it was confirmation bias but I remember us all pretty much collectively feeling re-assured after the flogas he was a more likely rsa runner than JLT. And while that sounds counterintuitive as you rightly say, Willie has run 19 horses since 2010 in the flogas that then went to Cheltenham; 13 of those went in the RSA compared to 6 in the shorter race. That’s despite him running more horses in the shorter race too overall. Just over two-thirds of all his RSA runners since 2010, had run in the flogas Chase prior. And 14 of his 19 rsa runners in that period had never(!) ran in a chase of 23 furlongs or further.

Like it seems pretty obvious now, he’s looked a machine over 20 furlongs so keep him there, but I can see why we collectively thought what we did.

Fwiw, Mullins has ran 6 future-JLT horses in the flogas Chase and their record is 3 3rd places, 3 unplaced; horses he ran in the killiney novices Chase are 3 winners, a 3rd place and 3 unplaced.

Ah well he may well still run here for all I know...

I suppose my main issue is that everyone seems adament Bob Olinger beats him and they're saying it's the wrong decision. I don't think we can say that.

I ended up dutching them for the Turners because I can't really split them... so I don't think I'm pocket talking.

I would slightly prefer Galopin des Champs for this race. Slighty.

Probably just surprised that is doesn't seem 50/50 on here.... so I'm ending up more one way than the other..... if it was fair debate and even arguements I probably wouldn't have gotten involved... but it seems biased to me in this echo chamber.

[Kevloaf]

I won't be crying, provided it is GDC that beats him

Me neither. I've dutched them

[Ice]

Anyone fancy GDM to pick up the GDC pieces for Mullins in this ? He was my original fancy for the race along with Bob and I had no option but to keep the bet running. He's always looked a thorough Stayer to me.

I backed gdm @ 33/1 for this after Cheltenham or Punchestown, can't remember which but cashed it out for full stake back after his second chase run, though i was still expecting gdc to come here at that point and couldn't see him getting near him. I dread that cashout coming back to bite me !

[ComplyOrDie]

Anyone fancy GDM to pick up the GDC pieces for Mullins in this ? He was my original fancy for the race along with Bob and I had no option but to keep the bet running. He's always looked a thorough Stayer to me.

Be good to chat about horses that are actually going to run in the race rather than those that are not !

Wouldn't be against Gaillard Du Mesnil winning the race, he as one of my early backed horses for the race as well, but I do struggle to see how he gets close to Capodanno, on the one time they've met, let alone the horses at the head of the betting.

[Dandrew99]

Surely as a spectacle, what would everyone rather see? Bob v GDC or GDC v BMG v AS v LP?

This way around we get two great races I suppose. But GDC in the RSA would make it potentially the best novice race I've ever seen.

[Kevloaf]

David Casey literally saying that Galopin des Champs would be worse off here.


Everyones pockets must be right though

[ToniC]

I suppose my main issue is that everyone seems adament Bob Olinger beats him and they're saying it's the wrong decision. I don't think we can say that.

Lines through master mcshee & Gaillard du mesnil he thumps him?

In all seriousness, the form of this years flogas is seriously flakey. You’ve got a very impressive win but there’s not too much of substance to back it up imo. It’s an absolute margin call. I’d probably side with bob, by the same margin you would GDC. His back form as a Ballymore winner edges it for me.

[KevMc]

The same Casey that’s well known for tipping up injured/dead horses. Waste of time listening to his nonsense.

[Kevloaf]

For all the Bob Olinger fans..... what price SHOULD he be?


Why aren't you all SMASHING UP the price now?



Let me guess.... you've already got bigger prices



Not a single person would be putting up Bob Olinger now as a good bet at current price would they

Same with Galopin des Champs I assume.




So if it's pocket talk, no point talking

[Lobos]

Absolutely Kev. At current prices it would definitely be a no bet race.

[Kevloaf]

It was from a debate we had on the forum last season

I've just found it.

I was saying at the time Gaillard Du Mesnil was a justified fav.

Literally nothing strong than that



If you want me to start getting the quotes up, Bob Olinger wasn't your best result either....

[Hurricane fly]

No? It's more highlighting that saying GDC is a future Gold Cup horse isn't relevant now.

I took the comment about Bobs ceiling as a bit of slander to be honest, fair enough if it wasn't.

I think the debate over GDC coming here would be lessened if it was a 2.5m race as opposed to an extended 2.3m. His career so far is a prototype for 3m so would be breaking the norm for him to come here.

Looking back only 2 horses in the last 10 years to win the JLT (Black Hercules and Shattered Love) have ever raced over 3m before running in it - To memory SL was a soft ground and everyone with a pulse decided to fall in BH.

Again the MP is littered with winners who go on to be 3milers in Don Poli, Champagne Classic, Sire Des Champs.

Again the 3m race he won at Punchestown is typically a route to a staying chaser, Next Destination, Delta Work, Indo, Allaho (went RSA) etc.

If he had grade 1 form at novice hurdle level for the trip I think people would be a bit more understanding/on his side, but his whole career screams 3m novice chaser which will cause some - myself included - to be skeptical. I'm not the greatest jump analyser in the world but didn't Willie also say his jumping looked worse down the back the last day when he was going too quick? He will need to be moving at some pace to make Bobs jumping come under pressure so if his worsens at pace it takes a bit of his advantage away too?



Edit: would I be smashing into him now? No, because there is an element of unknown, if GDC comes here then they will
both drift out and I'd expect better odds on the day for both. I imagine I'd keep it a watching brief though and just enjoy the spectacle.

[Kevloaf]

I took the comment about Bobs ceiling as a bit of slander to be honest, fair enough if it wasn't.

I think the debate over GDC coming here would be lessened if it was a 2.5m race as opposed to an extended 2.3m. His career so far is a prototype for 3m so would be breaking the norm for him to come here.

Looking back only 2 horses in the last 10 years to win the JLT (Black Hercules and Shattered Love) have ever raced over 3m before running in it - To memory SL was a soft ground and everyone with a pulse decided to fall in BH.

Again the MP is littered with winners who go on to be 3milers in Don Poli, Champagne Classic, Sire Des Champs.

Again the 3m race he won at Punchestown is typically a route to a staying chaser, Next Destination, Delta Work, Indo, Allaho (went RSA) etc.

If he had grade 1 form at novice hurdle level for the trip I think people would be a bit more understanding/on his side, but his whole career screams 3m novice chaser which will cause some - myself included - to be skeptical. I'm not the greatest jump analyser in the world but didn't Willie also say his jumping looked worse down the back the last day when he was going too quick? He will need to be moving at some pace to make Bobs jumping come under pressure so if his worsens at pace it takes a bit of his advantage away too?

Nah not slander. No moreso than if GDC's ceiling the Ryanair I won't be hailing him an all time great. Which is moot.

I think the fact it's a prototype 3m career is what's making people pick one over t'other.

I think the Black Hercules point is one you've put up as a negative when really it's a positive. Willie has a 100% record in switching what looked to EVERYONE like a stayer to this race and won it?

The typcial route, and the fact that our wonderful SW highlighted it, has made people believe if that isn't followed, it must be wrong, which is simply naive IMO. I don't want to be offensive at all, and of course know this won't be true of most people, yet pockets do seem to be flapping their thumbs. I've been on here a long time, I feel I have a good gauge on over rated and over bet horses...maybe I'm wrong, but I think the general consensus is that Bob Olinger is the overwhelming fav here, and I just can't see why that'd be the case on all known chase form.

I personally don't really care about hurdles form when we're talking chasers... it's a different sphere. Whilst it does no harm in backing up an argument or case, it's not conclusive. The best 2 mile chaser of all time (for plenty) got beaten over 2m by Al Ferof.... Al Ferof, the stayer? It's a fucking nonsense in my opinion to use hurdles form as genuine reasons to confirm form over fences. I see it all the time.... Edwardstone this year is getting dismissed as he wasn't as good over hurdles. Not don't get me wrong, I'm not going to hang my hat on him as evidence either way, but the point is he's BETTER over fences than he was hurdles....as so are loads of horses. It's like when a horse who is "well in" over hurdles runs. Be hundreds of examples.

Maybe "don't really care" is a bit too far.....I care, as it shows a horses ability to some extend, but just ignoring the fact some horses are better at different disciplines wouldn't be for me!

[Hurricane fly]

I personally don't really care about hurdles form when we're talking chasers... it's a different sphere. Whilst it does no harm in backing up an argument or case, it's not conclusive. The best 2 mile chaser of all time (for plenty) got beaten over 2m by Al Ferof.... Al Ferof, the stayer? It's a fucking nonsense in my opinion to use hurdles form as genuine reasons to confirm form over fences. I see it all the time.... Edwardstone this year is getting dismissed as he wasn't as good over hurdles. Not don't get me wrong, I'm not going to hang my hat on him as evidence either way, but the point is he's BETTER over fences than he was hurdles....as so are loads of horses. It's like when a horse who is "well in" over hurdles runs. Be hundreds of examples.

Maybe "don't really care" is a bit too far.....I care, as it shows a horses ability to some extend, but just ignoring the fact some horses are better at different disciplines wouldn't be for me!

I think I'm quite the opposite and become a bit of a snob re: average hurdlers becoming "great" chasers.

I must have missed Al Ferof beating Douvan () but I do recall Sprinter dismantling the last in the Supreme which had some affect. In the last few years there seems to have been a shift from most novice hurdlers being 5 come the festival to being 6 which for me limits improvement and is part of why I have the bias.

If a horse hasn't got the engine to keep up at a grade 1 pace over hurdles they likely won't over a chase, and really that's the bit for me re: Bob, his engine is a proven monster at this distance so GDC needs to prove his is. We know Bob is good enough to overcome a mistake or two, GDC will likely need to jump at a pace he never has done before when his trainer has highlighted it as a slight issue for him.

Edwardstone is slightly different but as a second season hurdler he is certainly more exposed than most.

Edit: Black Hercules isn't the only one that Willie has done it to, Faugheen, Bapume, Real Steel all ran over 3m prior to it, but can see the claim it's a positive

[Many Clouds]

You aren’t the only one. All I can say is, if GDC does go Turners as it now looks like, I’ll be booing him at the start, and cheering Bob from the Guinness stand…

Agreed, my love for him will have died completely however irrational that is. Hope Bob wins in a photo finish that looks at first glance like GDC has won but bobs got an uncombed pube stuck out to nick it.