2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Mighty]

Bit harsh on the horse who hasn't had a say in what race he goes in. He probably won't understand what you're doing either. Probably better to boo Willie when he collects his trophy after the race

Fair point! Currently treating this thread as a free therapy session tbh… and I know Willie to be fair to him has said nothing either way. Just one of those things where you live and learn, and hope Bob wins!

If I can get the therapy done now I can look forward to a good clash on the day…

[ComplyOrDie]

Venetia has long been saying L'Homme Presse to the RSA unless it came up Soft ground Fez. Thought process.

That's news to me. Do you think Willie was waiting to see what Venetia done with L'Homme Presse before deciding where his future Gold Cup hope can run?

[Lobos]

That's news to me. Do you think Willie was waiting to see what Venetia done with L'Homme Presse before deciding where his future Gold Cup hope can run?

Perhaps Willie has been chatting her up. She is still single by all accounts. Classy bird.

[Appreciate It]

Can he not go at that pace over 2m3+f and win too though?



There isn't that much difference?

I'm in no doubt that he can, and that if he does, he'll win. In doing so he'll murder two 25/1 tickets (Bob - Turners and GDC - RSA) Which is annoying.

Personally, i think he'd go bloody close in this years Arkle.

[Kevloaf]

I'm willing to just admit i've got it wrong in being so involved with GDC going the RSA route. The Turners is basically half a furlong shorter in trip than the Martin Pipe trip he won so well over isn't it? Definitely a bit of a stretch to say the Turners distance is wrong for him. That said, I feel pretty confident he'd win an RSA whereas the Turners v Bob feels like a real 50/50. That's why I find it odd, no pocket talking.

That is a perfectly fair assessment.

With that being the case, them wanting to go for the 50/50, makes me think they don't think it's 50/50, so I know which way I'd side.

I'm 55/45 in side of GDC.

Obviously won't be shocked either way.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm 55/45 in side of GDC.

I remember when you were adamant Gaillard Du Mesnil would beat Bob in the Ballymore.

I've decided, you just don't like Bob

[Ice]

I think when you read this back with hindsight, in a few years time, you'd think..... maybe my pocket was ruling my head?

Imagine looking at things fresh, right now, with no ante post bets..... is Bob Olinger CLEARLY a better chaser over the intermediate trip than Galopin des Champs?

I can't see how anyone would come to that conclusion.


Ice - you don't get the decision? He's literally ran at the intermediate trip twice, looking like an absolute world-beater in one of those runs, and you don't get it?

Future Gold Cup horse has nothing to do with it does it? What's Bob Olinger's ceiling? A future Ryanair horse at best?

I think being a future gold cup horse is what willie mullins would be hoping for and the banc is a natural stepping stone to it, of course he could go turners and win that and still go to a gold cup but the banc would be more logical. I wouldn't be as confident on bob staying the gold cup distance as gdc and he could be a horse suited to the Ryanair trip, like Allaho but i would love to see them both there in the 2023 gold cup.

[Kevloaf]

I remember when you were adamant Gaillard Du Mesnil would beat Bob in the Ballymore.

I've decided, you just don't like Bob

Where have you had that from?!

Given Galvin and Bob Olinger won me the most money I have ever won, I can assure you I love Bob Olinger.

Also, this was my Ballymore book last year.... (in Jan)......

[ComplyOrDie]

Where have you had that from?!

It was from a debate we had on the forum last season

[ToniC]

He's literally ran at the intermediate trip twice, looking like an absolute world-beater in one of those runs, and you don't get it?

I absolutely get this logic on the surface of it. However maybe it was confirmation bias but I remember us all pretty much collectively feeling re-assured after the flogas he was a more likely rsa runner than JLT. And while that sounds counterintuitive as you rightly say, Willie has run 19 horses since 2010 in the flogas that then went to Cheltenham; 13 of those went in the RSA compared to 6 in the shorter race. That’s despite him running more horses in the shorter race too overall. Just over two-thirds of all his RSA runners since 2010, had run in the flogas Chase prior. And 14 of his 19 rsa runners in that period had never(!) ran in a chase of 23 furlongs or further.

Like it seems pretty obvious now, he’s looked a machine over 20 furlongs so keep him there, but I can see why we collectively thought what we did.

Fwiw, Mullins has ran 6 future-JLT horses in the flogas Chase and their record is 3 3rd places, 3 unplaced; horses he ran in the killiney novices Chase are 3 winners, a 3rd place and 3 unplaced.

[Lobos]

Anyone fancy GDM to pick up the GDC pieces for Mullins in this ? He was my original fancy for the race along with Bob and I had no option but to keep the bet running. He's always looked a thorough Stayer to me.

Be good to chat about horses that are actually going to run in the race rather than those that are not !

[Hurricane fly]

Future Gold Cup horse has nothing to do with it does it? What's Bob Olinger's ceiling? A future Ryanair horse at best?

This is a really anti-Ryanair view more than anything though isn't it.

Is/Was Vautour a worse horse than Don Cossack because he won a Ryanair instead of a GC?

There is no shame in recognising a horse doesn't need nearly a mile further to be seen at his best. Bob is more likely to step down in trip than up.

[Kevloaf]

This is a really anti-Ryanair view more than anything though isn't it.

Is/Was Vautour a worse horse than Don Cossack because he won a Ryanair instead of a GC?

There is no shame in recognising a horse doesn't need nearly a mile further to be seen at his best. Bob is more likely to step down in trip than up.

No? It's more highlighting that saying GDC is a future Gold Cup horse isn't relevant now.

[Kevloaf]

It was from a debate we had on the forum last season

I don't recall and did do a search... nothing came up? I imagine it was price related at the time... and looking at my position I can't imagine I cared either way really.

I can assure you though, I have literally no anti Bob Olinger bias.... he owes me feck all.

Still, when he gets beat, everyone can cry me a river this year.

[ComplyOrDie]

I don't recall and did do a search... nothing came up? I imagine it was price related at the time... and looking at my position I can't imagine I cared either way really.

I can assure you though, I have literally no anti Bob Olinger bias.... he owes me feck all.

Still, when he gets beat, everyone can cry me a river this year.

I won't be crying, provided it is GDC that beats him