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2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

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  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Alarm bells though?

    What price will he go off comapred to current price off the back of 1 run?

    Surely not shorter than he is now... I'd imagine could get a bigger price between now and the day-of-race market too?
    Was just watching your pod whilst I had a spare half hr!

    I’d agree in general, wouldn’t expect shorter. I actually think his SP will be dictated by how Hendo gets on on Day 1. If he has the 1-2 in the Supreme for example I could see him going off much shorter than he should on form. Of course depends on who lined up too

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    • Originally posted by Splinterboy82 View Post

      Was just watching your pod whilst I had a spare half hr!

      I’d agree in general, wouldn’t expect shorter. I actually think his SP will be dictated by how Hendo gets on on Day 1. If he has the 1-2 in the Supreme for example I could see him going off much shorter than he should on form. Of course depends on who lined up too
      Yo uneed more than half hour


      YEah, I think there would be time to assess and still get on if he did have the 1-2 - a related double before ten isn't out of the question.

      I'm ok to leave him for now...got to thin them out someway and not getting declared is a big enough flag for now to take a pull!

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      • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

        Yo uneed more than half hour


        YEah, I think there would be time to assess and still get on if he did have the 1-2 - a related double before ten isn't out of the question.

        I'm ok to leave him for now...got to thin them out someway and not getting declared is a big enough flag for now to take a pull!
        Haha, well I’ll blast it in half hr chunks! Got the kids pony to muck out later so will pass the time shovelling shite whilst listening too s….good opinions

        Realistically this race should hold its ground on runners & have at least 8+ I’d expect:

        Mullins Selected
        Mullins likely 2nd string
        Elliott selected
        HDB selected
        Stage Star
        Walking / Hendo selected

        North Lodge?
        Skytastic?
        Bowtogreatness? (Pauling likes a runner in race)

        Agree that Walking is one to wait on after day 1 or multi / roll up on. Aside the obvious NRNB angles on the likes of Ginto & TSL, not much value in this market left now until the final decs for me…

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        • Originally posted by Splinterboy82 View Post

          Haha, well I’ll blast it in half hr chunks! Got the kids pony to muck out later so will pass the time shovelling shite whilst listening too s….good opinions


          Yeah, expecting 8+ runners myself too.

          Chances are I'll back him again but need to have more information now than we have, as you eluded to.

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          • Taken from The Owners Group magazine:
            'Stage Star has not raced since the last magazine, but he may reappear in February, before possibly bypassing his entry in the Ballymore Novice's Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in favour of Aintree's Grand National meeting in April. We think Aintree's flat track will suit Stage Star much better, as he has a serious turn of foot and Cheltenham's hill could possibly blunt the potency of his speed. We are sure Paul Nicholls will select the right options for him this term, as he could be one of the most exciting novice chasers around for next season.'

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            • Originally posted by Fouroverthrutwo View Post
              Taken from The Owners Group magazine:
              'Stage Star has not raced since the last magazine, but he may reappear in February, before possibly bypassing his entry in the Ballymore Novice's Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in favour of Aintree's Grand National meeting in April. We think Aintree's flat track will suit Stage Star much better, as he has a serious turn of foot and Cheltenham's hill could possibly blunt the potency of his speed. We are sure Paul Nicholls will select the right options for him this term, as he could be one of the most exciting novice chasers around for next season.'
              Nicholls was on ATR Lunchtime today saying Stage Star goes straight to the ballymore and looking forward to running him

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              • You couldn't make it up could you
                At least we know not to back him as he'll not get up the hill.

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                • Saw his comment in the RP about not running anything they don't think can win...

                  A more general point, but having got into the sport when Nicholls/Ruby were the kings, seeing a complete switch to Mullins/Elliott and the rest of the Irish, I wonder how long until the balance of power switches again?

                  It's really hard to see Willie (and then Patrick) not being at the summet... and Gordon is destined to win multiple trainers championships surely..... but how long until the UK actually bounce back?!

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                  • Big spending owners won't come here until the prize money matches up. This won't happen unless there is a big overhaul of the UK racing calendar.

                    I doubt this happens for a long time, there will be too many accusations of trying to destroy certain courses etc. But when places like Plumpton put up big money for 4 and 5 horse races something is systematically wrong.

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                    • Originally posted by Hurricane fly View Post
                      Big spending owners won't come here until the prize money matches up. This won't happen unless there is a big overhaul of the UK racing calendar.
                      J De La Hay isn’t shy with his cheque book nor is half of the Tizzard’s owners. The boy Tedham is another - 440K or something for that handicap chaser.

                      A lot of it for me is down to the sourcing - Harold Kirk has the best French connections and between Willie & Gordon they have the P2P boys giving them tip offs pre-sale.

                      Nicholls & Tizzard have Tom Malone..

                      Unless Irish P2Ps stop sourcing all the talent and/or Kirk goes away from WPM the domination is here to stay IMO. Cyclical my arse.

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                      • I’d say big spending owners couldn’t really care about prize money. The big outfits spending millions per her on new recruits and keeping horses in training are in it for the glory and enjoyment of winning prestigious races

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                        • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                          Saw his comment in the RP about not running anything they don't think can win...

                          A more general point, but having got into the sport when Nicholls/Ruby were the kings, seeing a complete switch to Mullins/Elliott and the rest of the Irish, I wonder how long until the balance of power switches again?

                          It's really hard to see Willie (and then Patrick) not being at the summet... and Gordon is destined to win multiple trainers championships surely..... but how long until the UK actually bounce back?!
                          Agree with this point and I think last years results are creating a huge bias in some people's thinking for this years festival.

                          I really don't understand how some people say Stage Star wont get up the hill, but also think JWM will win the Ballymore. The main reason why anyone would think JWM would win the Ballymore is because he wears Robcour colours, has Rachael as his jockey and is trained by HDB. This is not Bob Olinger, he ran last year.

                          If you look at the horses in this race and what they have achieved both in race status, collateral form and on the clock, Stage Star is right in there with a chance. We don't know when the power might shift but I feel that ruling English horses out just because they are trained in England is not the right way to go about it.

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                          • Originally posted by Fouroverthrutwo View Post
                            Taken from The Owners Group magazine:
                            'Stage Star has not raced since the last magazine, but he may reappear in February, before possibly bypassing his entry in the Ballymore Novice's Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in favour of Aintree's Grand National meeting in April. We think Aintree's flat track will suit Stage Star much better, as he has a serious turn of foot and Cheltenham's hill could possibly blunt the potency of his speed. We are sure Paul Nicholls will select the right options for him this term, as he could be one of the most exciting novice chasers around for next season.'
                            A perfect example of bullshit that is fed to owners, especially groups like this. Just managing expectations, but throwing in bullshit to help it along.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by spotthediff View Post

                              Agree with this point and I think last years results are creating a huge bias in some people's thinking for this years festival.

                              I really don't understand how some people say Stage Star wont get up the hill, but also think JWM will win the Ballymore. The main reason why anyone would think JWM would win the Ballymore is because he wears Robcour colours, has Rachael as his jockey and is trained by HDB. This is not Bob Olinger, he ran last year.

                              If you look at the horses in this race and what they have achieved both in race status, collateral form and on the clock, Stage Star is right in there with a chance. We don't know when the power might shift but I feel that ruling English horses out just because they are trained in England is not the right way to go about it.
                              It becomes tough though to continue this line of thought.
                              How many more Nicholls novice hurdlers are going to come up short before he finds one good enough ?
                              There ought to be a tipping point/exception at some stage, but do you keep backing it to happen, or take it on the chin when it does ?

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                              • Any takers for Skytastic here… 50s all in and 33 NRNB too big surely and could be a big mover after tomorrow?

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