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No decision will be made on any of these Novices (Hurdlers or Chasers) until we know the state of the ground. If it turns out a very Soft festival then that'll have a major effect on final destination.
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Yeah but were not just gonna leave it at that and wait to see what happens! Were all looking for some sort of strong ideas about where our selections are going and also after a bit of reassurance..i suppose it is a waste of time trying to figure it out but i dont think many people take the any race prices of these novice hurdlers..i dont because im greedy and stubborn!Originally posted by Lobos View PostComment
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In My Wildest Dream's Lobos ........... Dream result for me if they Do. ...hope your'e right .Originally posted by Lobos View PostComment
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Is this the wife ?Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View Post
Greed and stubbornness are two of my finer qualities too
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Don't want to be right. Rather SG in Supreme. However, Mullins was always going to split Kilcruit and SG right?? And with Kilcruit cemented into the Supreme I don't see him changing his mind. He's a stubborn old bastard.Originally posted by BigChaang View PostComment
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"was" being the key word there. Clearly the plans have changed, I cannot see him having a horse that's only won a maiden hurdle as his Supreme #1. Has he ever done that?Originally posted by Lobos View Post
Every single one of Mullins winners over 2m at the DRF has gone to the Supreme. In my mind, there is zero doubt that Sir Gerhard will go there. Just a question of whether he puts Dysart Dynamo in there with him or steps him up here, the latter of which I see as the much more likely option given he has Kilcruit (and potentially State Man and/or El Fabiolo).
For his horses that ran in the Tattersalls/Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle:
2021:- Appreciate It (1st) - Won the Supreme
- Blue Lord (3rd) - Fell in the Supreme
- Hook Up (4th) - 12th in the Mares Novice
- Galopin Des Champs (6th) - Won the Martin Pipe
- Mr Coldstone (12th) - Skipped the festival
- N'golo (13th) - 9th in the Albert Bartlett
- Asterion Forlonge (1st) - 4th in the Supreme
- Mt Leinster (3rd) - Skipped the festival
- Blue Sari (PU) - Fell in the Coral Cup
- Klassical Dream (1st) - Won the Supreme
- Aramon (2nd) - 6th in the Supreme
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It would be a big blow for me, however I am slowly resigning myself to the fact that this is going to happen, unfortunately.Originally posted by Lobos View PostComment
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Klassical Dream was always going to the Ballymore wasn't he? until it turned up a Soft ground first day that year. Current betting would suggest SG goes Ballymore but things can change. Really hope you are right but I have my doubts.Comment
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Exchange has Dysart 10-1 now.
As a focus on popular opinion now the dust has settled it seems most favour the Dysart Supreme & Sir G Ballymore split. Based on the betting exchanges.
I'd say this is favourite myself, but Willie will only make his mind up very near the declarations I reckon, if the weather is set.
Only thing that would alter this is one or more of the owners wanting to run in one race over the other.
I doubt either of these would be insistent, but you never know.
I don't think for a minute he'll only send maiden winners to the supreme, not his MO at all.Comment
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Unfortunately, and painfully, this is now the most likely case, IMO, too.Originally posted by Quevega View Post
Need to start getting Sir Gerhard on side, somehow
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Nothing to lay on Sir G for supreme right now 7.8 to back, and someone just offered 5 at 50 to lay.
edit - now switched to 20-1Comment
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Couldn't tell you to be honest. Too long ago and I didn't spend half my life looking into Cheltenham back thenOriginally posted by Lobos View Post
Current betting has to be taken with a rather large portion of salt though doesn't it? Most firms are NRNB now, of course Sir G is going to be shorter for the Ballymore. Same way that Energumene is shorter for the Ryanair, doesn't mean anything in terms of target, and of course there are the two Hendo horses which are always going to keep the prices bigger in the Supreme. You can read into odds all you like, they rarely actually mean anything concrete. I can't see a single bit of concrete evidence that suggests that Sir Gerhard will go to the Ballymore.Comment
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Could be that both trainer and owners believe that the two big Hendo runners will be impossible to beat with either of their big guns (Dysart and SG) so could just go the easiest option for a festival win which is Mullins MO as everyone keeps reminding me.He can then just send the other 3 duffers down the 2 mile route to team up on and mess up both CH and Bonjovi.Comment
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Nothing's concrete of course.Originally posted by Dandrew99 View Post
Couldn't tell you to be honest. Too long ago and I didn't spend half my life looking into Cheltenham back then
Current betting has to be taken with a rather large portion of salt though doesn't it? Most firms are NRNB now, of course Sir G is going to be shorter for the Ballymore. Same way that Energumene is shorter for the Ryanair, doesn't mean anything in terms of target, and of course there are the two Hendo horses which are always going to keep the prices bigger in the Supreme. You can read into odds all you like, they rarely actually mean anything concrete. I can't see a single bit of concrete evidence that suggests that Sir Gerhard will go to the Ballymore.
But the betting exchanges are a reasonable guide to popular opinion or dare I say it popular logic, and likely outcomes.
Subject to fluctuations of course.
There is definite activity around the lay side on Sir G right now for the supreme, and it's not my money.
Probably just a mad half hour. Like my dog used to have.Comment
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