2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Odin]

Best result for any JWM Bartlett bets has to be him getting turned over tomorrow doesn't it? Win and he definitely goes Bally, NR and he still has to do business at clonmel or they could switch him 'back' to Bally if it looks like he doesn't stay?

[Lobos]

Best result for any JWM Bartlett bets has to be him getting turned over tomorrow doesn't it? Win and he definitely goes Bally, NR and he still has to do business at clonmel or they could switch him 'back' to Bally if it looks like he doesn't stay?

If he is to go Albert then yes, I'd say he'll need to get beat but go close as well staying on at one pace or maybe win but only getting up close home. If he gets beat out of sight then we can say ta, ta to all Festival bets. It's a really tough looking race so if he wins comfortably then he'll only be going one way and he'll be nowhere near the 5/1 he is now.

[Odin]

If he is to go Albert then yes, I'd say he'll need to get beat but go close as well staying on at one pace or maybe win but only getting up close home. If he gets beat out of sight then we can say ta, ta to all Festival bets. It's a really tough looking race so if he wins comfortably then he'll only be going one way and he'll be nowhere near the 5/1 he is now.

Agree with all of this - happy I've got him appropriately covered for both races now so I can just enjoy the race!

[Benjy23]

When did the exchanges get so strong on Sir Gerhard for this? He's getting matched at 3/1.

DD drift here and and the Supreme prices all suggesting DD Supreme and Sir G Ballymore.

Tempted to cash out on some bets for this first time.

[FinalFurlong91]

Willie won't decide until the day before no point cashing out

[Splinterboy82]

When did the exchanges get so strong on Sir Gerhard for this? He's getting matched at 3/1.

DD drift here and and the Supreme prices all suggesting DD Supreme and Sir G Ballymore.

Tempted to cash out on some bets for this first time.

For some context here on the Willie won’t he debates that happen every year….I had Klassical Dream backed at a healthy price with 365 for the supreme a few yrs ago. My cash out was a fair bit higher than my stake but at the same time he was trading shorter for the Ballymore on the Sat before Sun decs. As we all know he rocked up in the supreme & won. Willie really doesn’t make his mind up until that last day / few hrs. There’s loads of examples where the price indicated one & swapped literally days before (Champ Fever, Five for three, Faugheen, loads more) - I’m not telling you what to do as everybody has their own strategy BUT if your thinking is based purely on current odds & exchange price then I’d tread awfully carefully IMO

[Benjy23]

Appreciate the responses. I'm not thinking any long term singles. Just recent bets I've done on the DD and Sir G doubles for both races. Always wanted to be cashing out one that would be the likely non runner, before it's too late.

As you both say I've probably got a while yet. Although if exchange prices go out too much there must be a risk of cash outs disappearing

[Studfarm254]

When did the exchanges get so strong on Sir Gerhard for this? He's getting matched at 3/1.

DD drift here and and the Supreme prices all suggesting DD Supreme and Sir G Ballymore.

Tempted to cash out on some bets for this first time.

When you factor who’s actually committed to the races. The supreme, you have CH and jonbon, you know mighty potter and 3 stripe have both been targeted here, with a small chance of one going up in trip. Kilcruit is going and has turned the corner apparently although I’m still a bit sceptical after he beat a load of toilets. Then for the ballymore you only have JWM who beat a wonky leg kilcruit. So if you balance up the exchange prices currently at 4 and 6.8, I don’t actually think there’s any clues here based on the depth of the races

[Benjy23]

When you factor who’s actually committed to the races. The supreme, you have CH and jonbon, you know mighty potter and 3 stripe have both been targeted here, with a small chance of one going up in trip. Kilcruit is going and has turned the corner apparently although I’m still a bit sceptical after he beat a load of toilets. Then for the ballymore you only have JWM who beat a wonky leg kilcruit. So if you balance up the exchange prices currently at 4 and 6.8, I don’t actually think there’s any clues here based on the depth of the races

I'd go with this but DD is out to 9/1 having been as short as 3/1 himself previously?

[ToniC]

When you factor who’s actually committed to the races. The supreme, you have CH and jonbon, you know mighty potter and 3 stripe have both been targeted here, with a small chance of one going up in trip. Kilcruit is going and has turned the corner apparently although I’m still a bit sceptical after he beat a load of toilets. Then for the ballymore you only have JWM who beat a wonky leg kilcruit. So if you balance up the exchange prices currently at 4 and 6.8, I don’t actually think there’s any clues here based on the depth of the races

Wonky leg kilcruit

to be fair, it’s just about as good as form as any on a line through Minella crooner

[Irish Rugby]

For some context here on the Willie won’t he debates that happen every year….I had Klassical Dream backed at a healthy price with 365 for the supreme a few yrs ago. My cash out was a fair bit higher than my stake but at the same time he was trading shorter for the Ballymore on the Sat before Sun decs. As we all know he rocked up in the supreme & won. Willie really doesn’t make his mind up until that last day / few hrs. There’s loads of examples where the price indicated one & swapped literally days before (Champ Fever, Five for three, Faugheen, loads more) - I’m not telling you what to do as everybody has their own strategy BUT if your thinking is based purely on current odds & exchange price then I’d tread awfully carefully IMO

Excellent post and needs to be bumped up on every new page, in both this thread and the Supreme one.

[Lobos]

The ground will have a big say in where all these Novice Hurdlers/Chasers go. It will go to the wire. Just need to have them covered for a couple of races each and then just ride the waves. Lots of twists and turns yet. Horses will also get injured which will also change trainers minds. Seen it all before. Sit tight and let it all unfold !!!!

[TigerRolllllll]

The ground will have a big say in where all these Novice Hurdlers/Chasers go. It will go to the wire. Just need to have them covered for a couple of races each and then just ride the waves. Lots of twists and turns yet. Horses will also get injured which will also change trainers minds. Seen it all before. Sit tight and let it all unfold !!!!

Sadly, could be injuries etc too

When exchanges go against a horse is often good time to get it in book…..this has worked well for me on SG / Dysart

[opatcho]

Going slow in this race over at Naas

[Exar Essay]

Seems to be pulling out of Rachel’s hands. Supreme bound