2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Altior]

Dysart and Gerri being rerouted in a matter of days would hurt really badly. I've had the winner of this every year since Simonsig. Might be time to hedge a few bets and put something on Ginto. Even if I think he's a very big horse this is a handy race if the likes of the two above go elsewhere.

[Guinness Village]

Dysart and Gerri being rerouted in a matter of days would hurt really badly. I've had the winner of this every year since Simonsig. Might be time to hedge a few bets and put something on Ginto. Even if I think he's a very big horse this is a handy race if the likes of the two above go elsewhere.

What a year that was!! I’d backed him antepost and was sweating thinking he’d go supreme. I’d lost my voice after shouting Barry home that day. It all becomes a bit hazy after that!!

[Guinness Village]

Not done quite so well after that, but always one of my favourites

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Anybody know much about the Henderson horse Walking On Air? Running tomorrow at Newbury in the same race Gallyhill started off in last year before he was stepped up to 2m3 a month later. Obviously things didn't pan out with Gallyhill, but just one that caught my eye as a potential shortener in a massively open race. 50s available.

Nicky talked about him with affection in his early season stable tours and if you have the time it's probably worth checking out what he has to say on YouTube. From memory he said he thought he was a good horse and on debut they were expecting him to win but he was beaten by a Gary Moore 'Aeroplane' which turned out to be Shallwehaveonemore. Make of that what you will but I think Shallwehaveonemore will be a decent handicap hurdler and nothing more. I may be proven wrong but I accepted at face value what Nicky had to say about his novice hurdlers last year and ended up wasting money backing Pipesmoker, Firestep and other 'nice novice hurdlers'. For me lesson learned.

[TigerRolllllll]

OK.....please at least minds open, before you think its nuts....

If Nicky was to switch a horse to Ballymore, the more likely could be Jonbon

Heard a few sources now whisper it a bit.....Nicky himself made a ref back to how it helped Simonsig settle.....Barry on Off the Fence, plus couple others can't recall names in stuff listened to

I think its unlikely.....but can still get 25s and bigger on exchange......and could double him with Dysart and CH for small play?

Whilst i'm no saying its likely, i like a few of these at big odds in the book......makes the late switches much more exciting....and if it happens and he goes off v short, think how you might kick yourself....specially if have good books to protect (tho how anyone can have a good book on Ballymore at mo i'm not sure )

[Dandrew99]

Any Nickle Backers out there, check my diary.

[Lobos]

Anyone heard any up to date news about Donald McCain's Fruit N Nut ? The horses that finished behind him on his impressive hurdles debut in September have amassed at least 10 wins between them so the form is red hot.

[That Horse]

Anyone heard any up to date news about Donald McCain's Fruit N Nut ?

Was on everybody's lips over Christmas but being kept back for Easter now.....sorry couldn't resist

[Quevega]

Anyone heard any up to date news about Donald McCain's Fruit N Nut ? The horses that finished behind him on his impressive hurdles debut in September have amassed at least 10 wins between them so the form is red hot.

Red Hot ?
my arse.

[ComplyOrDie]

So I'm still not done with the Dysart Dynamo / Sir Gerhard, where are they going to end up debate, much to the annoyance of many, I'm sure

I will note, whilst I do have DD covered for the Supreme at 20/1 and the reverse DD (S) / Sir G (B) double, it would be more beneficial to myself should he run in the Ballymore, so I'm not going to hide the fact I have an element of bias within this thought process, however I have spent the last hour and a half going through everything, and I have a few points to make (some may have been done before, so apologies).

First of all, this is based on Nicky sending both his two big guns to the Supreme, as logically and historically it makes little to sense to split them up, provided neither are beaten on the way to the festival. He's not done it in the past, so why suddenly now? Not for me.

Without any doubt, the Supreme is looking the better of the two races.

With the exception of DD & Sir Gerhard, the Ballymore market is currently mostly full of staying looking types, who have yet to show much in the way of proper speed or turn of foot, usually something associated with winning this race. It is lacking, somewhat. This might seem a little bit harsh as there are still a couple of unbeaten horses in there, who have only run in maiden hurdles to date, but it's not as if they scooted clear in the manner of previous winners of the race. DD is the only horse to have shown a level of speed worthy, IMO. Sir Gerhard is obviously highly likely to run in the G1 Novice Hurdle at the DRF and will probably win, which brings me nicely on to my next point.

Since the G1 Novice Hurdle (formerly Chanelle Pharma) at the DRF has been over 2m, Willie has won all three renewals and sent all three winners (and even some of his losers) to the Supreme, even the likes of Asterion Forlonge (2020 winner), despite him looking like he could prefer a step up in trip, so the way I see it IF Sir Gerhard wins the race, and I think he should, he will be Supreme bound. The Irish form doesn't look to be up to a great deal, however the race at the DRF will at least likely be represented by previous G1 winners over 2m. Despite this though I'm expecting Sir Gerhard to win it and win it well, cementing his place as Willies number 1 for the Supreme.

If Sir Gerhard wins the race at the DRF then, for me, he's beat more over 2m than what DD has (assuming the likes of Mighty Potter, My Mate Mozzie & Statuaire turn up). Realistically the opposition DD faced in the Moscow Flyer was probably less than average, especially over the 2m trip. A couple of the horses may turn out to be good staying types in the future, but certainly not over 2m. For me, this in itself has exaggerated the performance and has created a serious amount of recency bias towards DD being a 2miler. The likes of Constitution Hill & likely Jonbon (although we haven't seen him in a proper race yet) will be able to keep tabs and go with Dysart Dynamo, unlike the boats he faced in the Moscow Flyer. He can and did of course, only beat what's in front of him, I know, but we've not learnt anything we didn't already know, IMO.

Moving on, I think Willie will send his best novice (DD this year, IMO) to the race he has most chance of winning. The owner, whilst not being a big owner, has had horses with Willie for a fair few years now and I think he'd love to get one on the board for her. Based on markets alone you'd have to say the Ballymore is the easiest race. He has the fav (Sir Gerhard) and 2nd fav (DD) so the bookmakers certainly see it this way too. If Sir Gerhard wins at the DRF I think we'll have a reversal of the current market and recency bias will yet again take over.

The market and exchange prices are very much in favour of the recent form. Which is understandable. But it doesn't always make it correct.

Lots of ifs and buts, and as many have said it may be as simple as waiting to see how Sir Gerhard runs in at the DRF. If he wins well I think I'm going to be immediately cashing in my DD Supreme bet, and take it on the chin should I get it wrong. Sometimes you just have to get off that fence.

[Quevega]

I'm worried about you ComplyOrDie !

I ban anyone from replying to the contrary or in favour.
I admit to a bias as well.
A bias against this fucking debate happening again
At least wait till Jonbon goes favourite after Saturday.
It's the recency bias supreme novices hurdle.

Anyway we're only a day or 2 away from Willie saying that "with his run style and the pace he's shown, he goes straight to the supreme all being well".

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm worried about you ComplyOrDie !

I ban anyone from replying to the contrary or in favour.
I admit to a bias as well.
A bias against this fucking debate happening again
At least wait till Jonbon goes favourite after Saturday.
It's the recency bias supreme novices hurdle.

Anyway we're only a day or 2 away from Willie saying that "with his run style and the pace he's shown, he goes straight to the supreme all being well".

I had you odds on to reply first

[Stormez]

So I'm still not done with the Dysart Dynamo / Sir Gerhard, where are they going to end up debate, much to the annoyance of many, I'm sure

I will note, whilst I do have DD covered for the Supreme at 20/1 and the reverse DD (S) / Sir G (B) double, it would be more beneficial to myself should he run in the Ballymore, so I'm not going to hide the fact I have an element of bias within this thought process, however I have spent the last hour and a half going through everything, and I have a few points to make (some may have been done before, so apologies).

First of all, this is based on Nicky sending both his two big guns to the Supreme, as logically and historically it makes little to sense to split them up, provided neither are beaten on the way to the festival. He's not done it in the past, so why suddenly now? Not for me.

Without any doubt, the Supreme is looking the better of the two races.

With the exception of DD & Sir Gerhard, the Ballymore market is currently mostly full of staying looking types, who have yet to show much in the way of proper speed or turn of foot, usually something associated with winning this race. It is lacking, somewhat. This might seem a little bit harsh as there are still a couple of unbeaten horses in there, who have only run in maiden hurdles to date, but it's not as if they scooted clear in the manner of previous winners of the race. DD is the only horse to have shown a level of speed worthy, IMO. Sir Gerhard is obviously highly likely to run in the G1 Novice Hurdle at the DRF and will probably win, which brings me nicely on to my next point.

Since the G1 Novice Hurdle (formerly Chanelle Pharma) at the DRF has been over 2m, Willie has won all three renewals and sent all three winners (and even some of his losers) to the Supreme, even the likes of Asterion Forlonge (2020 winner), despite him looking like he could prefer a step up in trip, so the way I see it IF Sir Gerhard wins the race, and I think he should, he will be Supreme bound. The Irish form doesn't look to be up to a great deal, however the race at the DRF will at least likely be represented by previous G1 winners over 2m. Despite this though I'm expecting Sir Gerhard to win it and win it well, cementing his place as Willies number 1 for the Supreme.

If Sir Gerhard wins the race at the DRF then, for me, he's beat more over 2m than what DD has (assuming the likes of Mighty Potter, My Mate Mozzie & Statuaire turn up). Realistically the opposition DD faced in the Moscow Flyer was probably less than average, especially over the 2m trip. A couple of the horses may turn out to be good staying types in the future, but certainly not over 2m. For me, this in itself has exaggerated the performance and has created a serious amount of recency bias towards DD being a 2miler. The likes of Constitution Hill & likely Jonbon (although we haven't seen him in a proper race yet) will be able to keep tabs and go with Dysart Dynamo, unlike the boats he faced in the Moscow Flyer. He can and did of course, only beat what's in front of him, I know, but we've not learnt anything we didn't already know, IMO.

Moving on, I think Willie will send his best novice (DD this year, IMO) to the race he has most chance of winning. The owner, whilst not being a big owner, has had horses with Willie for a fair few years now and I think he'd love to get one on the board for her. Based on markets alone you'd have to say the Ballymore is the easiest race. He has the fav (Sir Gerhard) and 2nd fav (DD) so the bookmakers certainly see it this way too. If Sir Gerhard wins at the DRF I think we'll have a reversal of the current market and recency bias will yet again take over.

The market and exchange prices are very much in favour of the recent form. Which is understandable. But it doesn't always make it correct.

Lots of ifs and buts, and as many have said it may be as simple as waiting to see how Sir Gerhard runs in at the DRF. If he wins well I think I'm going to be immediately cashing in my DD Supreme bet, and take it on the chin should I get it wrong. Sometimes you just have to get off that fence.

Another post that should be forwarded onto Closutton & the owners

[TigerRolllllll]

So I'm still not done with the Dysart Dynamo / Sir Gerhard, where are they going to end up debate, much to the annoyance of many, I'm sure

I will note, whilst I do have DD covered for the Supreme at 20/1 and the reverse DD (S) / Sir G (B) double, it would be more beneficial to myself should he run in the Ballymore, so I'm not going to hide the fact I have an element of bias within this thought process, however I have spent the last hour and a half going through everything, and I have a few points to make (some may have been done before, so apologies).

First of all, this is based on Nicky sending both his two big guns to the Supreme, as logically and historically it makes little to sense to split them up, provided neither are beaten on the way to the festival. He's not done it in the past, so why suddenly now? Not for me.

Without any doubt, the Supreme is looking the better of the two races.

With the exception of DD & Sir Gerhard, the Ballymore market is currently mostly full of staying looking types, who have yet to show much in the way of proper speed or turn of foot, usually something associated with winning this race. It is lacking, somewhat. This might seem a little bit harsh as there are still a couple of unbeaten horses in there, who have only run in maiden hurdles to date, but it's not as if they scooted clear in the manner of previous winners of the race. DD is the only horse to have shown a level of speed worthy, IMO. Sir Gerhard is obviously highly likely to run in the G1 Novice Hurdle at the DRF and will probably win, which brings me nicely on to my next point.

Since the G1 Novice Hurdle (formerly Chanelle Pharma) at the DRF has been over 2m, Willie has won all three renewals and sent all three winners (and even some of his losers) to the Supreme, even the likes of Asterion Forlonge (2020 winner), despite him looking like he could prefer a step up in trip, so the way I see it IF Sir Gerhard wins the race, and I think he should, he will be Supreme bound. The Irish form doesn't look to be up to a great deal, however the race at the DRF will at least likely be represented by previous G1 winners over 2m. Despite this though I'm expecting Sir Gerhard to win it and win it well, cementing his place as Willies number 1 for the Supreme.

If Sir Gerhard wins the race at the DRF then, for me, he's beat more over 2m than what DD has (assuming the likes of Mighty Potter, My Mate Mozzie & Statuaire turn up). Realistically the opposition DD faced in the Moscow Flyer was probably less than average, especially over the 2m trip. A couple of the horses may turn out to be good staying types in the future, but certainly not over 2m. For me, this in itself has exaggerated the performance and has created a serious amount of recency bias towards DD being a 2miler. The likes of Constitution Hill & likely Jonbon (although we haven't seen him in a proper race yet) will be able to keep tabs and go with Dysart Dynamo, unlike the boats he faced in the Moscow Flyer. He can and did of course, only beat what's in front of him, I know, but we've not learnt anything we didn't already know, IMO.



Moving on, I think Willie will send his best novice (DD this year, IMO) to the race he has most chance of winning. The owner, whilst not being a big owner, has had horses with Willie for a fair few years now and I think he'd love to get one on the board for her. Based on markets alone you'd have to say the Ballymore is the easiest race. He has the fav (Sir Gerhard) and 2nd fav (DD) so the bookmakers certainly see it this way too. If Sir Gerhard wins at the DRF I think we'll have a reversal of the current market and recency bias will yet again take over.

The market and exchange prices are very much in favour of the recent form. Which is understandable. But it doesn't always make it correct.

Lots of ifs and buts, and as many have said it may be as simple as waiting to see how Sir Gerhard runs in at the DRF. If he wins well I think I'm going to be immediately cashing in my DD Supreme bet, and take it on the chin should I get it wrong. Sometimes you just have to get off that fence.

I think you make some really good points CoD....and this is a long way from settled. We don't even know ground, etc yet

If we assume Sir Gerhard is as good as we think and wins at DRF, then the 4 "Supreme horses" could be considered the most likely to win both races in whatever combination they turn out (if any move to Bally).

The only point i would make is it does depend on your betting approach....whether its more of a book and happy to have dead bets, or fewer horses with more focus

For those with a wider book approach, then might want to keep all options open, if have long enough prices. So any ways of getting them backed at decent odds worth looking at......

I do think you can often build a decent position by backing against the latest thinking, particularly on exchanges.....and so have now topped up on the Sir G / DD way round you suggest.....as was lucky to have piled into DD for Supreme before last run

One senses that the Ballymore / Spuds decisions are going to be similarly chaotic this year......so as you say i think, you either have to spread wide when prices high, or take a position and get off fence, which is prob more satisfying and profitable if you get it right

[KickOnMyCockers]

Anybody know much about the Henderson horse Walking On Air? Running tomorrow at Newbury in the same race Gallyhill started off in last year before he was stepped up to 2m3 a month later. Obviously things didn't pan out with Gallyhill, but just one that caught my eye as a potential shortener in a massively open race. 50s available.

I was pretty taken with that - looks like a lively one for Bally or AB definitely.