2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Kevloaf]

Hahaha, excellent post ToniC




Agree with most so typically ....

Below average renreal if Ginto wins? On your list, there are only the Mullins horses that are better, and only 1 runs?

So surely you think it's a below average renewal regardless, bar DD or SG?



Ginto is a proper horse, the disrespect for him stems from the majority of people assuming Hollow Games was better, and despite being proven that not to be the case, they can't accept they were wrong and are now unable to admit he's a proper horse.


PROPER horse. Up the Ginto! Only value if the TWO above don't run? If one of them runs, and Ginto runs, 8/1 would be a stonking e/w bet. You're lucky you're on at a bigger price. I take all the credit



I'm only joking before anyone takes this too seriously.

[ToniC]

Hahaha, excellent post ToniC




Agree with most so typically ....

Below average renreal if Ginto wins? On your list, there are only the Mullins horses that are better, and only 1 runs?

So surely you think it's a below average renewal regardless, bar DD or SG?



Ginto is a proper horse, the disrespect for him stems from the majority of people assuming Hollow Games was better, and despite being proven that not to be the case, they can't accept they were wrong and are now unable to admit he's a proper horse.


PROPER horse. Up the Ginto! Only value if the TWO above don't run? If one of them runs, and Ginto runs, 8/1 would be a stonking e/w bet. You're lucky you're on at a bigger price. I take all the credit



I'm only joking before anyone takes this too seriously.

Sure Ginto is a cracking horse, was left cringing after he got turned over in his bumper last season after what the Morans paid for him but he’s come good over hurdles.

But he looks a bit of a boat and doesn’t seem to go through his races with the same class bob o, Samcro or envoi did as novice hurdlers. Jack said the last day that he knew they’d have to make use of his stamina all the way if they were going to win, and he’s talked about by us and connections alike as a potential one for the Bartlett, whilst the other 3 I mentioned were typically discussed as potential supreme if they didn’t go to the Ballymore (not that there was ever a lot of substance to that discussion, to be fair).

8/1 is a great each way bet if he runs, though the 9/2 NRNB with paddy probably tells you how much the uncertainty over a target is factored into his antepost price (either that or that PP are robbing bastards). As I said though, I lean toward him running here, I think it just depends how hollow games runs at the DRF.

At the moment it doesn’t look like it will have a horse up to scratch with what we’ve been used to in recent times, but in fairness we’ve probably just been spoilt a bit in recent years. Regardless of Dysart Dynamo running here on not, I’m confident on my position with this race, it’s the ramifications of him not running here on my supreme position that I’m scared about

[Kevloaf]

Ginto losing in a bumper and going on to have a better chasing career than Samcro and Envoi Allen would be pretty funny.

We have had great winners of the Ballymore...but we have in the Supreme too..... and then some horses win that aren't superstars.

This Envoi allen / Samcro - needing to be a class horse angle is just a bit misguided IMO. You can only really ever tell that in hindsight and even then, what's Samcro doing now? Was he ever actually as good as people thought? - Point being though, who cares? Not really relevant for what we're looking at...

A market with no genuine 'star' in it, even Dysart Dynamo can't be held in that regard, he's got no notable form either... Sir Gerhard is a bumper winner... that's it.

On hurdles form, Ginto has THE best intermediate piece of form. Stage Star closest next... then, Journey With Me?

It's not a vintage year..... Ginto is a fair bet 8/1.

Gordon doesn't have better for the race either?

[Altior]

Dysart has my head wrecked the sexy beast.

If only I knew Gerri was well and running I wouldn't mind too much.

[ComplyOrDie]

Absolutely nothing to do with who wins or goes to the Supreme/Ballymore, but before Ferny Hollows injury last season the top 2 Mullins Novice Hurdlers were by Jeremy (Appreciate It) and Westerner (Ferny Hollow), and this year they are by Jeremy (Sir Gerhard) & Dysart Dynamo (Westerner).

There you go, some more useless information that'll have no bearing on who goes where

[nortonscoin200]

WARNING: X CERTIFICATE DYSART DYNAMO CONTENT

(QUEVEGA PLEASE LOOK AWAY NOW)

None of us knows where DD will line up at the Festival - but it's legit for us all to have an opinion.

And the racecourse is where we'll find most of the clues.

With that in mind I've just rewatched all 4 of DD's races (again) in a bid to find hard evidence that will indicate whether he should stick to two miles or go for the Ballymore.

Clonmel (last March) 2m 2 1/2f soft ground bumper:

DD pulled for his head in 6th place in the very early stages but settled by the time they came to the first bend.
In fact Patrick was gently pushing him along to get a bit closer to the front as they came into the straight for the first time.
DD continued to travel comfortably close up in 5th until half way up the back straight where he improved into third spot.
Still no signs of him pulling since the very early stages of the race.
DD looked very comfortable as he went second around the final bend and was poised to challenge the leader as they came into the straight - hitting the front just over 2 furlongs from home.
He went clear as Patrick pushed him out and give him 3 cracks of the whip.

Punchestown (April) 2m yielding winners bumper:

DD pulled seriously hard all the way up the home straight at the start in about 6th place.
The field was bunched up and it looked a pedestrian pace.
DD settled in 5th on the outside shortly after leaving the straight.
He was little more than a length off the pace and travelled sweetly in 5th down the back straight .
DD started pulling again (not as seriously as before) about 5f from home when the pace seemed to drop again and the field bunched up.
But as the pace picked up again DD travelled sweetly onto the heels of the leaders 3 1/2f out.
He then cruised into the lead as they entered the home straight. Patrick gave him 4 or 5 taps as they went clear.


Cork (December) 2m maiden hurdler soft:

DD jumped out in front at the start and settled into a good rhythm.
He didn't pull at all during the race.
But he did throw his head to the side approaching the first hurdle.
DD was very novicey over the first 3 obstacles and the 4th last. He also rapped the last.
But he was never headed during the race.
He just upped the tempo in the finishing straight and galloped right to the line with minimal encouragement.

Punchestown (Jan) Grade 2 novice hurdle soft:

Jumped off in front under Paul Townend for the first time.
Raced keenly at a good pace.
Had a 4l lead shortly after the first flight - and that was the closest any of his rivals got to him the whole race.
Jumped much better than on his debut.
But didn't look an absolute natural at his hurdles. Sometimes a bit deliberate and novicey at the second last.
Basically galloped the rest into submission before the final bend.
His pace certainly slowed in the final furlong but Townend basically let him cruise home.
Difficult to know whether he would have had a lot left in the tank.
Very impressive. all the same.


Bumper form observations:

DD pulled at the start of his first run but it was nothing serious and Patrick soon got him settled.
He then travelled sweetly for the rest of the race.
He didn't seem desperate to get to the front and was content to travel just off the pace.
He didn't show an electric turn of foot at the finish.
But the further he went the better he looked.
Patrick did keep him up to his work all the way up the straight and it certainly wasn't an effortless performance.
But he looked a serious galloper who ground the others into submission.

DD pulled virtually Champion Green style for the first couple of furlongs - much more pronounced than in his first run.
But he then settled well on the outside a couple of lengths off the pace.
Midway down the back he started looking keen again for a few seconds as the pace looked like it slowed and 5-6 lengths covered the entire field.
But he quickly settled back into a nice rhythm and cruised into the lead as they turned for home.
Again, he quickly went clear in the style of a horse who is out-staying the field.
And again, Patrick kept him up to his work right to the line.
The impression was of a very talented and resolute galloper whose strong suit is stamina.

Hurdles runs observations:

Change of tactics compared to the bumpers in that DD set out to make the pace in both hurdle races.
He settled from the start in both hurdle races - unlike in the bumpers.
But it was noticeable he raced more keenly in the Moscow Flyer where he set a much higher tempo than in his maiden.
His hurdle runs were much more uncomplicated than his bumper races because he wasn't headed in either race.
It was simply a case of DD setting off in front and not seeing another horse.

In all his races (hurdles and bumpers) he has looked like a very powerful stayer.
He has yet to show an electric turn of pace at the business end because he hasn't needed to.
From the way Patrick kept him up to his work and the way he finished the Moscow Flyer I rather doubt he's got a searing finishing kick in his locker.

Would he win the Supreme?

On good to soft ground I don't think he'd be favourite to win if he went out in front from the start.
Whichever of Constitution Hill or Jonbon could lay up with his gallop would probably outsprint him at the finish.
If the Supreme was run on soft or heavy ground it would improve DD's chances of blunting their speed up the hill.
But I wouldn't be confident he could win it from the front.

Would he win the Ballymore?

It seems unlikely CH or Jonbon will come here and if DD runs in the Ballymore Sir Gerhard will probably contest the Supreme.
So it's likely he would face a weaker field.
But Townend would have to be very clever with his fractions to win it from the front.
I think makeing the pace in the Ballymore would reduce his winning chance.
DD settled pretty well just off the pace in both his bumper runs.
My impression (which may be wrong) was that he settled better when he was on the outside with daylight ahead of him.
In both those bumper runs he was very comfortable laying up with the pace.
He then cruised to the front about 2f from home and ran powerfully to the line - and if those tactics are adopted he would take a lot of beating in the Ballymore whatever the ground.

Conclusion:
I don't think he's a head case like Champion Green.
But if he runs in the Supreme with Jonbon and CH I reckon they'll frighten off most of the opposition and you'll be left with a field of less than 10.
And I imagine the others will be happy to let DD make the pace.
If it is a small field it might be difficult for DD not to make the pace and I feel that would leave him vulnerable to Hendo's pair beating him for speed at the business end.

If DD is the only one of those three to contest the Ballymore I imagine that would guarantee more runners than in the Supreme - one horse less likely to scare off the opposition.
And a larger field might make it easier for DD to lay up just off the pace.
I don't believe he'd beat himself by pulling for his head.
And I do think he'll find any other horse's pace easier to cruise along to than if he was out front himself.
Then you might see a repeat of one of those bumper runs where he takes it up on the home turn and powers up the hill....just like Bob

[ComplyOrDie]

Sure Ginto is a cracking horse, was left cringing after he got turned over in his bumper last season after what the Morans paid for him but he’s come good over hurdles.

But he looks a bit of a boat and doesn’t seem to go through his races with the same class bob o, Samcro or envoi did as novice hurdlers.

I disagree about him being a boat. His p2p time was one of, if not the quickest on the day, and Grand Jury posted similar too in his p2p. GJ has then gone and won a bumper and hurdle over 2m.

I think the two quickest horses finished 1-2 in the Lawlors and the boats were in behind. Someone said the head wind was very strong in the race, this could well have exaggerated what made it look like they were boats, as this could have blunted their speed, though I'm not sure on how much effect this has, but I imagine it has some, at least.

I think Ginto would place in a average renewal of the race, which is what it's looking like being anyway. He could well win it if Dysart Dynamo or Gerri Colombe don't turn up to the race as well.

Gordon has a line into the English leading contender (in the market anyway) so far with form through Gringo D'Aubrelle so I don't think he'd be too worried about that one.

[Many Clouds]

WARNING: X CERTIFICATE DYSART DYNAMO CONTENT

(QUEVEGA PLEASE LOOK AWAY NOW)

None of us knows where DD will line up at the Festival - but it's legit for us all to have an opinion.

And the racecourse is where we'll find most of the clues.

With that in mind I've just rewatched all 4 of DD's races (again) in a bid to find hard evidence that will indicate whether he should stick to two miles or go for the Ballymore.

Clonmel (last March) 2m 2 1/2f soft ground bumper:

DD pulled for his head in 6th place in the very early stages but settled by the time they came to the first bend.
In fact Patrick was gently pushing him along to get a bit closer to the front as they came into the straight for the first time.
DD continued to travel comfortably close up in 5th until half way up the back straight where he improved into third spot.
Still no signs of him pulling since the very early stages of the race.
DD looked very comfortable as he went second around the final bend and was poised to challenge the leader as they came into the straight - hitting the front just over 2 furlongs from home.
He went clear as Patrick pushed him out and give him 3 cracks of the whip.

Punchestown (April) 2m yielding winners bumper:

DD pulled seriously hard all the way up the home straight at the start in about 6th place.
The field was bunched up and it looked a pedestrian pace.
DD settled in 5th on the outside shortly after leaving the straight.
He was little more than a length off the pace and travelled sweetly in 5th down the back straight .
DD started pulling again (not as seriously as before) about 5f from home when the pace seemed to drop again and the field bunched up.
But as the pace picked up again DD travelled sweetly onto the heels of the leaders 3 1/2f out.
He then cruised into the lead as they entered the home straight. Patrick gave him 4 or 5 taps as they went clear.


Cork (December) 2m maiden hurdler soft:

DD jumped out in front at the start and settled into a good rhythm.
He didn't pull at all during the race.
But he did throw his head to the side approaching the first hurdle.
DD was very novicey over the first 3 obstacles and the 4th last. He also rapped the last.
But he was never headed during the race.
He just upped the tempo in the finishing straight and galloped right to the line with minimal encouragement.

Punchestown (Jan) Grade 2 novice hurdle soft:

Jumped off in front under Paul Townend for the first time.
Raced keenly at a good pace.
Had a 4l lead shortly after the first flight - and that was the closest any of his rivals got to him the whole race.
Jumped much better than on his debut.
But didn't look an absolute natural at his hurdles. Sometimes a bit deliberate and novicey at the second last.
Basically galloped the rest into submission before the final bend.
His pace certainly slowed in the final furlong but Townend basically let him cruise home.
Difficult to know whether he would have had a lot left in the tank.
Very impressive. all the same.


Bumper form observations:

DD pulled at the start of his first run but it was nothing serious and Patrick soon got him settled.
He then travelled sweetly for the rest of the race.
He didn't seem desperate to get to the front and was content to travel just off the pace.
He didn't show an electric turn of foot at the finish.
But the further he went the better he looked.
Patrick did keep him up to his work all the way up the straight and it certainly wasn't an effortless performance.
But he looked a serious galloper who ground the others into submission.

DD pulled virtually Champion Green style for the first couple of furlongs - much more pronounced than in his first run.
But he then settled well on the outside a couple of lengths off the pace.
Midway down the back he started looking keen again for a few seconds as the pace looked like it slowed and 5-6 lengths covered the entire field.
But he quickly settled back into a nice rhythm and cruised into the lead as they turned for home.
Again, he quickly went clear in the style of a horse who is out-staying the field.
And again, Patrick kept him up to his work right to the line.
The impression was of a very talented and resolute galloper whose strong suit is stamina.

Hurdles runs observations:

Change of tactics compared to the bumpers in that DD set out to make the pace in both hurdle races.
He settled from the start in both hurdle races - unlike in the bumpers.
But it was noticeable he raced more keenly in the Moscow Flyer where he set a much higher tempo than in his maiden.
His hurdle runs were much more uncomplicated than his bumper races because he wasn't headed in either race.
It was simply a case of DD setting off in front and not seeing another horse.

In all his races (hurdles and bumpers) he has looked like a very powerful stayer.
He has yet to show an electric turn of pace at the business end because he hasn't needed to.
From the way Patrick kept him up to his work and the way he finished the Moscow Flyer I rather doubt he's got a searing finishing kick in his locker.

Would he win the Supreme?

On good to soft ground I don't think he'd be favourite to win if he went out in front from the start.
Whichever of Constitution Hill or Jonbon could lay up with his gallop would probably outsprint him at the finish.
If the Supreme was run on soft or heavy ground it would improve DD's chances of blunting their speed up the hill.
But I wouldn't be confident he could win it from the front.

Would he win the Ballymore?

It seems unlikely CH or Jonbon will come here and if DD runs in the Ballymore Sir Gerhard will probably contest the Supreme.
So it's likely he would face a weaker field.
But Townend would have to be very clever with his fractions to win it from the front.
I think makeing the pace in the Ballymore would reduce his winning chance.
DD settled pretty well just off the pace in both his bumper runs.
My impression (which may be wrong) was that he settled better when he was on the outside with daylight ahead of him.
In both those bumper runs he was very comfortable laying up with the pace.
He then cruised to the front about 2f from home and ran powerfully to the line - and if those tactics are adopted he would take a lot of beating in the Ballymore whatever the ground.

Conclusion:
I don't think he's a head case like Champion Green.
But if he runs in the Supreme with Jonbon and CH I reckon they'll frighten off most of the opposition and you'll be left with a field of less than 10.
And I imagine the others will be happy to let DD make the pace.
If it is a small field it might be difficult for DD not to make the pace and I feel that would leave him vulnerable to Hendo's pair beating him for speed at the business end.

If DD is the only one of those three to contest the Ballymore I imagine that would guarantee more runners than in the Supreme - one horse less likely to scare off the opposition.
And a larger field might make it easier for DD to lay up just off the pace.
I don't believe he'd beat himself by pulling for his head.
And I do think he'll find any other horse's pace easier to cruise along to than if he was out front himself.
Then you might see a repeat of one of those bumper runs where he takes it up on the home turn and powers up the hill....just like Bob

Can you just pop this in an email to Willie sent with love and a "you're welcome" from all at Fat Jockey

[Lobos]

I'll save you all anymore wasted energy on this race.........El Fabiolo wins it.

There you go. What's next ?

[Atlantic Viking]

I'll save you all anymore wasted energy on this race.........El Fabiolo wins it.

There you go. What's next ?

Mares Novice please.

[Lobos]

Mares Novice please.

Brandy Love

[Spectre]

Starter for ten...

Supreme - Mighty Potter, Three Stripes Life

Ballymore - Gerry Colombe (if goes at all?), Ginto

Sounds - Hollow Games, Minella Crooner

Minella Crooner is an addition, but I posted exactly that shortly after the Ginto/Hollow Games race, so I completely agree.

The DRF may well shake that up though if any are beaten without excuses.

[Lobos]

Ok. For those Double D's Ballymore fans here's a little snippet from comments made by Patrick before his Punchestown Bumper win in April........

'In the last race, I ride Dysart Dynamo, who won well in Clonmel. An old fashioned type, who is quite babyish in his mind still, he won over 2m2f and steps back in trip here which is not an advantage but hopefully won’t hinder him too much. He is a horse to keep an eye on for next year over longer trips and on slow ground.'


Maybe there is hope .....

[Eudipe]

... and after his bumper debut at Clonmel:-

Patrick Mullins said: "It is a great family, and the Mannings' bred him and own him. He is a big, big baby and that's why I was quite keen to take a lead for the first bit and get him to settle and relax. To look at him he is a three-mile chaser on soft ground.''

Feels like we're clutching at straws somewhat though.

[Dandrew99]

Ok. For those Double D's Ballymore fans here's a little snippet from comments made by Patrick before his Punchestown Bumper win in April........

'In the last race, I ride Dysart Dynamo, who won well in Clonmel. An old fashioned type, who is quite babyish in his mind still, he won over 2m2f and steps back in trip here which is not an advantage but hopefully won’t hinder him too much. He is a horse to keep an eye on for next year over longer trips and on slow ground.'


Maybe there is hope .....

I'll add that to the 7 reasons why not to write him off that I mentioned yesterday

You'd have thought after all these years we would have stopped trying to second guess Willie by now