2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Quevega]

If Kauto to Don Cossack is the level of class required, it's a very small pool to pick from, and at the intermediate trip we'd have to do the lean towards there not being one this year, at this stage?

This is going to be a general, sweeping statement, but by now, don't we know when we've got a classy one? The DRF only ever confirms it? The hype would already be there - for those top class ones?

We've had:
City Island, Willoughby Court, Windsor Park, The New One, First Lieutenant, Peddlers Cross win in the last 12 years - I'd say that's 50% that weren't classy, and that's ignoring the cliffs that Yorkhill and Samcro fell off (rightly so).

Faugheen, Bob Olinger, Envoi Allen, Yorkhill, Simonsig and Samcro - classy enough.... perhaps I'm being unfair on The New One, but he was a Grade 2 horse...


I suppose so far, he's the only horse I think I've seen this season at this trip to put in a performance I think could win it.... I am not saying he's better than any of these horses above, but absolutely nothing so far at this intermediate trip has, Journey With Me the closest perhaps?

A lot of thinking out loud there.

Yeah, I agree that we have seen nothing with as good a formline so far.
But although we assume a little less so than pre xmas, It's safe to expect one or 2 others to look good in the coming weeks.
Can't be certain who that would be right now.

The class thing is just the type of horse not so much the level they will or won't achieve.
He looks a galloper, a really good one, but compared to when Bob Olinger won the race last year, he lacks that 'class' factor. Where, IMO some horses have it and some don't. meaning in certain conditions they will not be so effective. The class horses can usually cope with more diverse conditions. And often at the classier trips of 2 miles and 2m 4f. The longer trips on bad ground aren't often won by classy types. They are won by idiots that don't stop galloping.

It's almost like Beauty and the Beast. Both have there pro's and con's, I know which one I'd prefer to shag. But if things got desperate (like the ground) !!

However, like I've said already - these types can win the Ballymore and often do, but it will need to be a weaker race than average IMO and softer ground will enhance his chances for sure.
Both could happen, and the weak race especially, as the classier animals I've seen so far this season look like they are going supreme.

I stand by what I originally said and if it's normal good to soft ground and the competition is better than it looks right now, which is likely, then it would be a mistake as he'd be vulnerable.
Obviously the Bartlett could look a tough race also.

[Exar Essay]

Like everyone, it seems to me as though this might be the most open novice race at the festival and that there might be a bit of value around.

I’d backed Gerri Colombe and Dysart Dynamo earlier in the season and have a bit on Ginto following yesterday’s win and a bit on Whatseawant at 33/1 which I think is an overreaction for a good horse who had a bad day.

I’ve had a long look at the market this morning to see if there’s an angle and I’ve ended up coming back to Gerri. Appreciating that he didn’t beat the deepest field of all time FTO, the horse in second, Ailie Rose, also followed Hollow Games home. So there is a bit of a line there. We now have a line through HG to Ginto et al too.

Comparing the two performances of HG and GC in their maiden hurdles, both were visually impressive and easy wins. But GC was on heavy (as opposed to soft) and giving Ailie Rose and additional 8lbs, but AR got no closer to GC than she did HG. You can tell how heavy the going was for GC compared to HG.

GC also looked more of a Ballymore horse, quickening away from the field as opposed to riding them off his tail as HG did.

I am well aware that it’s difficult to compare form lines which include 2 easy victories where jockeys had no need to be overly hard on their mounts, and races at different courses on different days, … and probably numerous other factors I’ve not mentioned.

GC may end up in the Bartlett. Not sure where he runs between now and the Fez either, surely he won’t clash with JWM at the DRF?

However, I do think that the 27s (boosted with PP) about GC is very fair and I’ve gone in again.

The others I’ve wondered about further down the betting are:

Broomfield Burg @ 66/1 - Good form over 2m. Settled well so stepping up should be ok. Surely won’t take on Jonbon in the Supreme for the same owner but may be a handicap plot (as per the FJ podcast). Would definitely back at this price NRNB.

Hawai Game @ 33/1 - Won a decent enough maiden over 2m 2f at Naas in mid December. Could be Willie’s dart here? Concern is that he ran quite freely. Not sure if he’d settle as required for 2 1/2 against quality opposition.

Guily Billy @ 33/1 - Disappointed FTO but ran well next time smoking the field at Tramore by 25l over 2m. Looks like a step up in trip would do no harm, but then again, Henry doesn’t have an obvious 2m option. For CPS which helps. Again one is consider NRNB.

[Chris]

Here is my view on Gordon Elliott's horses, firstly he sends Gringo D' aubrelle (not trying) to see how good the English horses are and potentially getting a nice handicap rating for Cheltenham. Gordon now knows if he has the beating of Stage Star or not. Gordon also knows if he has the beating of Journey with me through Minella Crooner.

Regarding Ginto I think he is one of those horses that just does enough and will always find more if asked. Does this mean that Ginto wins the Ballymore well at this moment in time he should be fav.

[denman]

Here is my view on Gordon Elliott's horses, firstly he sends Gringo D' aubrelle (not trying) to see how good the English horses are and potentially getting a nice handicap rating for Cheltenham. Gordon now knows if he has the beating of Stage Star or not. Gordon also knows if he has the beating of Journey with me through Minella Crooner.

Regarding Ginto I think he is one of those horses that just does enough and will always find more if asked. Does this mean that Ginto wins the Ballymore well at this moment in time he should be fav.

What makes you think gringo wasn't trying?

[Brooksie]

Here is my view on Gordon Elliott's horses, firstly he sends Gringo D' aubrelle (not trying) to see how good the English horses are and potentially getting a nice handicap rating for Cheltenham. Gordon now knows if he has the beating of Stage Star or not. Gordon also knows if he has the beating of Journey with me through Minella Crooner.

Regarding Ginto I think he is one of those horses that just does enough and will always find more if asked. Does this mean that Ginto wins the Ballymore well at this moment in time he should be fav.

surely they'd want him to try in order to gain a line of form?

You could also argue Henry now knows how good Journey with me is based on Grand Jury's run behind Ginto, but it's very hard to say if they have the beating of each other at this stage, all these novices are open to any amount of improvement. Going back to the JWM run, that was his first run of the season where as Crooner was probably in a better place already having a run in November.

[Chris]

What makes you think gringo wasn't trying?

I can't be completely sure but when they priced him up originally he was 3/1 and went off 6/1 suggesting not trying or not good enough, take your pick.

[Altior]

Classic Getaway entered in the Munster hurdle over 2.3 on Thurs

[Brooksie]

Classic Getaway entered in the Munster hurdle over 2.3 on Thurs

Clonmel, DRF 2.6 then AB would be my guess?

[denman]

I can't be completely sure but when they priced him up originally he was 3/1 and went off 6/1 suggesting not trying or not good enough, take your pick.

I was interested in him for mp but not now. Nothing in the race to suggest he wasn't trying.

[Craigy14]

Clonmel, DRF 2.6 then AB would be my guess?

Or back to Clonmel for the Grade 2 Allaho ran in. May depend how he gets on and if they view him a Ballymore or Albert Bartlett type.

Edit - Hes only entered not declared yet. Think a few seen this other day he was entered.

[darlojim]

Looked all over a proper stayer in his bumper Classic Getaway, would be very surprised if he turned out to be one for this race. Thought grangeclare west would have been one for this race of the 2 but we've not seen him so there's obviously been issues.

[ToniC]

However, I do think that the 27s (boosted with PP) about GC is very fair and I’ve gone in again.

It can all be a bit tin-foil-hat sometimes maybe when pp/bf take a firm position against/for a horse relative the rest of the market, but it adds to the intrigue and you could be thinking why are they 25s when he’s a general 16/1 with 20s in a place?

[Exar Essay]

It can all be a bit tin-foil-hat sometimes maybe when pp/bf take a firm position against/for a horse relative the rest of the market, but it adds to the intrigue and you could be thinking why are they 25s when he’s a general 16/1 with 20s in a place?

Yeah absolutely. Might be simply a case of their book? I’d be more worried if it was a Willie horse as they seem to have a pretty good handle on his horses.

[ToniC]

Yeah absolutely. Might be simply a case of their book? I’d be more worried if it was a Willie horse as they seem to have a pretty good handle on his horses.

Fwiw I like his chances here and will be waiting to evaluate his next entry before topping up on a small bet I’ve already placed at 33s if I think he will be targeting this race. He looked quicker than Ginto in his bumpers.

[jack1092]

I don't normally get involved in looking this far out at interesting price cuts....but i'm bored so here's one.

Dysart Dynamo cut 8s to 7s with PPBF at 10.59 today. He's there favourite for the race now and they haven't gone NRNB just yet, but perhaps this is in advance of doing so...