2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Chris]

The race tomorrow will have a huge affect on the Ballymore and maybe the AB. The winner will become one of the favorites for the Ballymore and currently it could be one of about 4 horses that wins tomorrow.

Scenarios:

Grand Jury Wins - Him to the Ballymore, WDW Ballymore and then the Morans horses to AB (or just one of them). JWM then to AB and Gerri could go either, none or handicap. Then also Gordon may step one of TSL (more likely) or MP up to the Ballymore

Whatdawant Wins - Ballymore (looks like he'll go the Ballymore whatever happens) then same as above for the Moran horse's and Elliot horses. Grand Jury could go anywhere then and JWM could go Ballymore

Ginto Wins - Ginto goes the Ballymore. HG to the AB. JWM to either but the Ballymore more likely. TSL and MP stay in the Supreme.

Hollow Games Wins - HG to the Ballymore. Ginto to the AB. JWM to either but the Ballymore more likely. TSL and MP stay in the Supreme.



For me my ideal scenario would be Grand Jury to win but I think that is one of the least likely scenario of the 4

It's simple Ginto goes Ballymore and HG goes Albert it's not difficult or is it?

[JackieMoon33]

Good post, I think Gerri Colombe also further complicates the issues for us as punters. Would love to have these problems as an owner/trainer.

In my opinion, in regards to Gordon’s novices, there are way too many permutations for it all to be decided around the result of the Lawlors. Some of his will likely have another run between now and March so that could change things still.

[Exar Essay]

It's simple Ginto goes Ballymore and HG goes Albert it's not difficult or is it?

Why? He’s said countless times that Ginto need the distance. If he’s his preferred horse, he’ll send him to the race that best suits him.

[Winging The Last]

In my opinion, in regards to Gordon’s novices, there are way too many permutations for it all to be decided around the result of the Lawlors. Some of his will likely have another run between now and March so that could change things still.

The last 5 winner (didn't look back further) of the Lawlors all went straight to the festival after the race. 4 to the Ballymore and 1 to the AB. These were all Elliott, Mullins and HDB horses (the favorites tomorrow).

So for the winner there's a high probability that they won't run again until Cheltenham

[Lbur4288]

In my opinion, in regards to Gordon’s novices, there are way too many permutations for it all to be decided around the result of the Lawlors. Some of his will likely have another run between now and March so that could change things still.

Oh definitely but I do think it'll have a big impact assuming there's no hiccups between then and the festival. I do think that this season has given us one of the strongest sets of novice hurdlers for a few years so that could also factor into some trainers plans.

[JackieMoon33]

The last 5 winner (didn't look back further) of the Lawlors all went straight to the festival after the race. 4 to the Ballymore and 1 to the AB. These were all Elliott, Mullins and HDB horses (the favorites tomorrow).

So for the winner there's a high probability that they won't run again until Cheltenham

Yes but he also has MP, TSL and Gerri in his Arsenal and I’d be surprised if they all went straight to the Festival.

[Chris]

Why? He’s said countless times that Ginto need the distance. If he’s his preferred horse, he’ll send him to the race that best suits him.

Tongue in cheek comment, I can't see him running both horses in the same race but I could be wrong. If I owned them I would split them, what would you do?

[Winging The Last]

Yes but he also has MP, TSL and Gerri in his Arsenal and I’d be surprised if they all went straight to the Festival.

I did say the winner.

And the winner will go to pretty much favorite for the Ballymore.

Obviously TSL, MP and GC will run again before the festival. Most likely all of them at the DRF in the 2m and the 2.6m

[charlie]

It's simple Ginto goes Ballymore and HG goes Albert it's not difficult or is it?

Nothing about this is simple. In all likelihood the stable won't know until Sunday which goes where. I know from asking JC that he thinks HG is more of an Albert Bartlett type, which is a view I share.

[JackieMoon33]

Nothing about this is simple. In all likelihood the stable won't know until Sunday which goes where. I know from asking JC that he thinks HG is more of an Albert Bartlett type, which is a view I share.

This could come back to bite me but I wouldn’t touch either of Ginto or Hollow Games to win the Ballymore.

[Maxfield]

Then of course we may not haven even seen the winner of the Ballymore or Bartlett run yet though time is ticking. Mullins has possibly four very good horses that haven't run yet over hurdles and one who could be an absolute Super Star...

[DenmanSacre]

This could come back to bite me but I wouldn’t touch either of Ginto or Hollow Games to win the Ballymore.

I'm the same. They don't look fast enough for this. Same feeling I have with JWM. I'd rather leave them for this race.

[Nwfb89]

I find it odd regarding ginto and hollow games that the owner has already been on record saying they will be split come cheltenham yet here they are against each other in the lawlors g1 on sunday, I'd agree with the guys above saying they would both be more suited to the bartlett on what we have seen from both so far, of course that could change on Sunday if 1 of them scoots in impressively, as a backer of hollow games for the bartlett I don't really want it to be him winning well and looking quick enough for the ballymore

[Exar Essay]

Tongue in cheek comment, I can't see him running both horses in the same race but I could be wrong. If I owned them I would split them, what would you do?

It’s not that simple in my view. The Moran’s have two (Gringo isn’t up to standard) over the mid-long trip, but Gordon has at least 2 others in TSL and GC.

If we’re only considering the trainers ambitions, I think straightforwardly, TSL is a Ballymore horse. Although I’m on for the AB too, he isn’t a galloping type.

I would then send the other 3 to the race that best suits them. We won’t know for sure how they cope with the mid trip until Sunday, but at present, I’d suspect
that the two Moran horses are better suited by the longer trip.

However, if after Sunday I felt that all 4 were better suited to the Ballymore, then I’d direct the one best suited to the AB that way (likely the slower of the Moran’s).

[Lobos]

Let's face it, reading the above 49 pages.........none of us have a clue where these Novices will end up Just sit back and let it all unfold and hope you've picked the right races.