2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Odin]

Only problem about the part about going to Clonmel, I think Henry mentioned after the run about going to Navan, not sure what race though

He was talking about the race JWM was a non-runner in a week or so ago, not a future race. Clonmel 3m is the plan based on everything I've read over a prolonged period of time, soft ground was paramount for the first run hence the non-declarations we saw at the entry stage.

[Zachx02]

He was talking about the race JWM was a non-runner in a week or so ago, not a future race. Clonmel 3m is the plan based on everything I've read over a prolonged period of time, soft ground was paramount for the first run hence the non-declarations we saw at the entry stage.

That makes sense then

[JackieMoon33]

I was coming to comment about that.

If Grand Jury wins the Lawlors, then if all 3 are good enough, 2 of them will need to run against each other as none of them look 2 milers.

Different trainers too for Gerri and JWM.

The reason I asked is that some owners let the trainers decide, especially if they have horses in different yards. Therefore it’s not a given that Gerri and JWM will be split up and both could end up in the same race potentially.

[Winging The Last]

Only problem about the part about going to Clonmel, I think Henry mentioned after the run about going to Navan, not sure what race though

He was actually referring to the race at Navan he was entered in a week ago when he was favourite not in the future. He said after the race 'I wish I had ran him at Navan a week ago' when asked about the race when he saw the line up.

He is then asked about if he will go to the DRF which he said 'Possibly, that was the race that sprung to mind after he won', but then goes on to say 'We'll see what else there is (races), I don't mind ducking and diving. But the DRF is the most likely'.

https://www.racingtv.com/videos/watch/ondemand/119812

[Lobos]

I'm calling Quevega Devils Advocate from now on Have to agree with him that DD Supreme looks more and more favourite.

[Craigy14]

I'm calling Quevega Devils Advocate from now on Have to agree with him that DD Supreme looks more and more favourite.

And sir Gerhard back to his original plan of the Ballymore

[Craigy14]

there's no need to up JWM to 3 miles at this stage in his career, he's just proved traveling at 2 and a half is no issue. If he were mine I'd stick to the Ballymore and keep him handy, make it a test. The quicker horses won't get chance to quicken if they already a spent force before the turn in.

Also Lobos correctly pointed out that Wednesday will most probably be the safer ground if no rain arrives through the week.

The intention was to always step him up though, that’s the point.

Someone mentioned the times yesterday and JWM’s over 2m4f was the slowest of all 3 run, yes first run, but against Grade 1 animals I’d be wary thinking he could just bounce out over 2m4f and do that, he just doesn’t look quick enough for me. Let him gallop all day and he’ll be at his best over 3m racing speed.

[riccirich]

Henderson surely has to consider constitution hill here doesn't he?

I know he has said him and jonbon are both targeting the supreme but if there is still no clear fav in this in another months time and henderson doesn't have anything else for here then there must be a good chance.

Henderson has run simonsig in this before and then brought him back for an arkle a year later so even if he sees CH as a two miler he could still take advantage of a weak ballymore if thats how it turns out and then return to two miles.

Would the owner really mind going up in trip for one race so henderson could split his best two novices if he thought this race is more winnable?

I know he could also send jonbon here but from the way he talks about them you would imagine if either will get wound up by the big day then it would more likely be jonbon so from the two he'd probably rather jonbon in the supreme, CH sounds very laid back so if they went a slow pace here like they often do he could just switch off and then sprint away at the end if good enough.

[Studfarm254]

They see this horse every day on the gallops and couldn’t have made it any clearer that this is a different horse to bob. The AB has always been the plan so I don’t get why yesterday’s run will have changed anything either. He’s beaten kilcruit who was running about with a wonky leg and isn’t the same horse as last season as he’s not seeing out his races. Form from kilcruits 1st run has already taken a huge hit and time of the race yesterday wasn’t good. I’m not as taken as a lot of people seem to be and don’t think we learnt an awful lot and didnt see any distinct gear change like that we’d have seen from bob. Solid debut though, will hopefully come on plenty for that given Henry’s stable isnt firing as it should be and was it’s 1st hurdles run

[Atlantic Viking]

Journey With Me - Apologies if already mentioned but hadn't seen it anywhere, Henry mentions in link below that the 2m 6f Nathaniel Lacy at the DRF is probably the most likely race for JWM. Won last year by Gaillard Du Mesnil who obviously came here but 2020 by Latest Exhibition and 2019 Commander Of Fleet who both went to and placed in the AB. Again calls him a 'stayer'.

https://youtu.be/_yN1oOPqtNk - Interview from 5:08.

[Quevega]

They see this horse every day on the gallops and couldn’t have made it any clearer that this is a different horse to bob. The AB has always been the plan so I don’t get why yesterday’s run will have changed anything either. He’s beaten kilcruit who was running about with a wonky leg and isn’t the same horse as last season as he’s not seeing out his races. Form from kilcruits 1st run has already taken a huge hit and time of the race yesterday wasn’t good. I’m not as taken as a lot of people seem to be and don’t think we learnt an awful lot and didnt see any distinct gear change like that we’d have seen from bob. Solid debut though, will hopefully come on plenty for that given Henry’s stable isnt firing as it should be and was it’s 1st hurdles run

good post. makes sense
welcome.

[Rooster Booster]

Henderson surely has to consider constitution hill here doesn't he?

I know he has said him and jonbon are both targeting the supreme but if there is still no clear fav in this in another months time and henderson doesn't have anything else for here then there must be a good chance.

Henderson has run simonsig in this before and then brought him back for an arkle a year later so even if he sees CH as a two miler he could still take advantage of a weak ballymore if thats how it turns out and then return to two miles.

Would the owner really mind going up in trip for one race so henderson could split his best two novices if he thought this race is more winnable?

I know he could also send jonbon here but from the way he talks about them you would imagine if either will get wound up by the big day then it would more likely be jonbon so from the two he'd probably rather jonbon in the supreme, CH sounds very laid back so if they went a slow pace here like they often do he could just switch off and then sprint away at the end if good enough.

With the profile of all the horses being spoken about for this race I don’t expect it to be a typical slow pace accelerate ballymore at all this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if it were a bigger field and a very true run race which will take some getting. I think the IAM entry tells you who he wants to run in the race and if they can teach Balco to drop the bit I expect him to pitch up here also.

[Atlantic Viking]

I’m not as taken as a lot of people seem to be and don’t think we learnt an awful lot and didnt see any distinct gear change like that we’d have seen from bob.

I've watched the race back countless times already and I have to say my gut feeling is one of it not being a particular stretch to imagine one or more turning up and being better over either distance. I think we learnt that JWM will at least be competitive at the level we need him to be which is always a bit of a relief, but over and above that we don't really know and I find my enthusiasm tempered more than anything at this stage. On the flip side, he still won, on debut, against some decent types and he was very easy to back beforehand in a way that suggests it was possibly always about getting the run before being stepped up, with anything else being a bonus.
Feel like i'm learning all the time and for every valid opinion I put up, I have 100 shit ones, but for all the talk of wanting further, he did seem more pleased to see the line than Minella Crooner...

[Silverbirch]

Henry from the start has stated that JWM is not like Bolinger. Quite strongly aswell. Has always mentioned he being a stayer.

Beating minella crooner by 3.5L is nothing spectacular.
I think the fact Kilcruit was beat is a major factor in the Ballymore chat. I think the previous Largy form speaks for itself. If Kilcruit wasn't in that race yesterday, surely that's not far off a perfect performance in regards to going for the Albert Bartlett.

To my eye he clearly wants further, I do believe he'd be vulnerable in the ballymore to a sprint finish, something like dysart dynamo and my own personal choice O'toole could nip him and I'm sure we haven't seen the full market in regards to this race yet.

AB still very likely IMO.

[Rooster Booster]

With all the talk about how Gordon is going to split all his novices does anybody think he might be getting fed up with being ?agazillion ahead in the title race only for Willie to do what he does every year...and hold more back for the back end to try and counter...obviously he may suffer at little Cheltenham wise but if he can poach a few from Willie over in Ireland it might make all the difference...it’d be quite the statement after his time out.