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2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

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  • It’s a question that will never be asked but would be interesting to hear Gordon’s thoughts on where he thought sir Gerhards best trip would be.

    I’d be shooting from the hip here but I’d say a majority of good bumper horses would tend to be more suited to a mid trip the next season over hurdles but there are plenty that would be fine, or even excel, at 2. I had originally thought Sir G supreme, but that was based mostly on the assumption of kilcruit Ballymore, and I did actually back sir g for this race prior to the Mullins yard tour.

    In Sir Gerhards favour, is Mullins record with former pointers in the race (both his winners since 2010 were and 2 that placed from 9 runners - that’s a very strong 22.22% win and 44.44% place rate compared to an overall win & place rate of 7.69% & 38.46% for the same period).

    another positive for Sir G & Kilcruit, as well as Dysart Dynamo, while not pertaining specifically to the champion bumper or any other single race, is his record with horses that had previously ran in at least one NHF race, these having 2 wins and 6 places from 16 runners - a 12.5% win and 50% place rate. Horses that never ran in an NHF race are 2 places from 10 runners.

    for overall winners Sir G would be again the most favoured by stats, with 8 of the last 12 being former pointers, and 12/12 had won at least one bumper prior to the race. Contrast this with the Supreme for example, where only 4/12 were former pointers, and 8/12 being bumper winners previously - Mullins accounting for 3 of the 4 that weren’t.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
      Just been doing a bit more digging with regards to Willie Mullins for this race, especially as it has been dominated by Kilcruit & Sir Gerhard at the top of the market for a fair while now, not to mention he has 4 of the top 7 in the betting currently.

      Some notes I've made for the race, that I thought I'd share, are as follows:
      • Willie Mullins has won the race 4 times (Fiveforthree 2008, Mikael d'Haguenet 2009, Faugheen 2014 & Yorkhill 2016)
      • Willie Mullins has won the race once with a horse (Fiveforthree) from the Champion Bumper (finished 5th in the 2007 Champion Bumper) - Kilcruit/Sir Gerhard
      • Willie Mullins has tended not to run his better horses from the Champion Bumper in the Ballymore the following season, and when he has tried the majority are well beat - Kilcruit/Sir Gerhard
      • Willie Mullins best finishing position in the past 10 seasons with a horse from the Champion Bumper was Next Destination who managed 3rd in the race (4th in the previous years Champion Bumper) - Again, as above, overall statistics for him in the race with horses from the Champion Bumper are not in favour of this particular route
      • Willie Mullins last two winners of the Ballymore started their hurdle careers over 2m4f+ - Possible negative seeing both Kilcruit/Sir Gerhard entered over 2m first time up, positives for Classic Getaway/Dysart Dynamo both with that 2m4f entry this coming weekend.
      • A bit like the race stats suggest, the Ballymore doesn't tend to favour 7 year olds, Willie Mullins winners were aged 6-6-5-6 - Kilcruit/Sir Gerhard
      • No winner of the Ballymore for Willie Mullins ran in a bumper beyond 2m 2f the previous season - Classic Getaway
      • Willie Mullins' 4 winners of the Ballymore have come from the following routes as younger horses - 2 x p2p, 1 x NHF, 1 x French Hurdle/Chasing - A mixed bag here, recency bias would send us toward p2p's, so a plus for Sir Gerhard/Classic Getaway but he's had winners from other sources. Neither p2p winner of the Ballymore ran in the Champion Bumper the season before though - Sir Gerhard
      These are just some brief notes I made, obviously a whole lot more to it than just this, not to mention the obvious fact that Willie won't give a heap about some stats I stick up on here, however trainers are generally creatures of habit, they don't usually go off on a different tangent, so some of these points may well stick come race day.

      From the notes I've made I would say there are a fair few negatives for both Kilcruit/Sir Gerhard for this race currently.

      The crux of Sir Gerhard is that he was a late arrival to Willie, and his previous trainer, Gordon Elliott, has used the Champion Bumper to then head to the Ballymore (successful with Envoi Allen), so it may still be the route he takes, but isn't one Willie would ordinarily take. May depend IF the owners have a say so?!?
      It's easy to forget how much Cheltenham Bumper horses used to be over bet and under priced and not quite make the grade as champions over hurdles the following season.
      It's only in the last 2 years that the form has taken an upward trend.
      Before that I can remember 3 bumper placed horses that came back to win a hurdle, Champagne Fever, Back to Front, Al Ferof.
      Probably missed one or 2 but that's all I can think of since the race came into play in 1992.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by ToniC View Post
        It’s a question that will never be asked but would be interesting to hear Gordon’s thoughts on where he thought sir Gerhards best trip would be.
        Yeah, I'd have loved to have known what his plans were for him too.

        Originally posted by ToniC View Post

        I’d be shooting from the hip here but I’d say a majority of good bumper horses would tend to be more suited to a mid trip the next season over hurdles but there are plenty that would be fine, or even excel, at 2. I had originally thought Sir G supreme, but that was based mostly on the assumption of kilcruit Ballymore, and I did actually back sir g for this race prior to the Mullins yard tour.

        In Sir Gerhards favour, is Mullins record with former pointers in the race (both his winners since 2010 were and 2 that placed from 9 runners - that’s a very strong 22.22% win and 44.44% place rate compared to an overall win & place rate of 7.69% & 38.46% for the same period).

        another positive for Sir G & Kilcruit, as well as Dysart Dynamo, while not pertaining specifically to the champion bumper or any other single race, is his record with horses that had previously ran in at least one NHF race, these having 2 wins and 6 places from 16 runners - a 12.5% win and 50% place rate. Horses that never ran in an NHF race are 2 places from 10 runners.

        for overall winners Sir G would be again the most favoured by stats, with 8 of the last 12 being former pointers, and 12/12 had won at least one bumper prior to the race. Contrast this with the Supreme for example, where only 4/12 were former pointers, and 8/12 being bumper winners previously - Mullins accounting for 3 of the 4 that weren’t.
        I agree about the race stats, besides his age really, that Sir Gerhard would probably be favourable for this race. Obviously my own research was only regarding what Willie does and how he gets on with his Champion Bumper horses

        Comment


        • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

          Yeah, I'd have loved to have known what his plans were for him too.



          I agree about the race stats, besides his age really, that Sir Gerhard would probably be favourable for this race. Obviously my own research was only regarding what Willie does and how he gets on with his Champion Bumper horses
          Yeah was an interesting point and as Q pointed out probably some recency bias overall regarding champion bumper horses coming back the next season and the levels they can achieve over hurdles. Whether current trend is just because of variance or because of trainers doing anything different will be interesting to see going forward

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

            It's easy to forget how much Cheltenham Bumper horses used to be over bet and under priced and not quite make the grade as champions over hurdles the following season.
            It's only in the last 2 years that the form has taken an upward trend.
            Before that I can remember 3 bumper placed horses that came back to win a hurdle, Champagne Fever, Back to Front, Al Ferof.
            Probably missed one or 2 but that's all I can think of since the race came into play in 1992.
            Montelado - The only horse to win back to back races at the festival!

            My first Cheltenham winner when there in person.

            won the Supreme in 1993 (first race) having won the inaugural bumper in 1992 (last race on the Thursday - 3 day meeting then) - so a record set to last a long time!

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            • No Dysart Dynamo or Journey With Me in the 2m4f maiden at Navan

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              • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                No Dysart Dynamo or Journey With Me in the 2m4f maiden at Navan
                Deary, deary me.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                  Deary, deary me.
                  I think JWM is dependant on softer ground so I can understand this to a degree, though I'm not so sure about DD, but Willie rarely likes to send his better horses out first time on 'Good' ground which is making for some seriously frustrating times!

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

                    I think JWM is dependant on softer ground so I can understand this to a degree, though I'm not so sure about DD, but Willie rarely likes to send his better horses out first time on 'Good' ground which is making for some seriously frustrating times!
                    Not looking good is it.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                      Not looking good is it.
                      I'd say the Minella Indo route is looking more and more likely for JWM now.

                      Almost guaranteed soft/heavy if he goes for the same race at Limerick over Xmas.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                        Not looking good is it.
                        Presumably it's possible to split the maiden if there's like 60 declared, like on Saturday. So we could still see 2 of them out from WPM and JWM there too?

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                        • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                          Not looking good is it.
                          Id be a hell of a lot more concerned if they were getting no entries. Not ideal but still plenty of time to get runs into them. Its not like they are with young inexperienced trainers.

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                          • Punchestown bumper that Dysart Dynamo hosed up in throws out another winner, in Gordon Dai Dai, at Clonmel just now. Grand Jury also won towards the end of November. A few horses in behind these have also run with credit since that bumper.

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                            • Nice from Lossiemouth there, keeps improving don’t he.
                              Be interesting to see him next time, Challow at Newbury or back at Sandown for the Tolworth on the usual mudbath?

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post
                                Nice from Lossiemouth there, keeps improving don’t he.
                                Be interesting to see him next time, Challow at Newbury or back at Sandown for the Tolworth on the usual mudbath?
                                I would give him no sort of chance in this race.
                                His breeding is not great/unusual.
                                His profile actually looks more suited to the bartlett.

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