2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Ray]

At least the faffer hendo said it in his stable tours “of course its always about cheltenham” how can the english not want to get that back against the irish just get your best nags running at cheltenham and see where your at!

[Winging The Last]

Yes would be expecting him to win based on opposition. Interesting they said 2m4 in the ATR stable tour, but he takes up his 3rd of 3 entries over 2m whilst there has been a few 2m4 maidens in the timeframe since he was first entered for a race. Shows you can’t always get too caught up on what these stable tours say I suppose. Ultimately tho Bob o started over 2 miles before going the Ballymore and I still think 2 and a half will probably be the right trip for Guily Billy this season when he’s entered in some proper races.

From experience what I have found is that most horses that end up over 2.5 miles in their novice season start off over 2m and that most that end up over 3m start off over 2.5m. Always a big pointer to where horses are going if starting off over 2.5 miles.

The main reason I would guess is the fitness side of things and also once a horse has gone over further they don't often come back down in trip

[Winging The Last]

Nice Aintree horse there, Mr Glass

[Eudipe]

Go Dante won well over 2m at Bangor today, looked to have the measure of a nice sort in Black Poppy when that one fell two out and ran through the line strongly (about a second quicker than stablemate Washington over C&D in the following race).

[Leman14]

Stage Star won easily enough at Chepstow in the 1:55.
Nicholls mentioned another similar race under a penalty, before the possibility of The Challow Hurdle.
Early days, but he often uses the Challow for his ballymore hopes.
was 50/1 prior, now general 25/1

[charlie]

Stage Star won easily enough at Chepstow in the 1:55.
Nicholls mentioned another similar race under a penalty, before the possibility of The Challow Hurdle.
Early days, but he often uses the Challow for his ballymore hopes.
was 50/1 prior, now general 25/1

I like your line of thought re the Challow Leman (could be a back to lay play), but these are dangerous bets IMO because they look quite good, but decimate P&L come seasons end. We seldom see Ballymore winners racing before November, and the race is a graveyard for extremely well fancied high profile British horses (Champ, Bravemansgame, Neon Wolf and Yanworth), and this year looks like one of the most competitive on paper. My guess is PN wouldn't put Stage Star in the same stratosphere of more well fancied bullets he's fired and missed with.

[Saxon Warrior]

It doesnt matter, If he wins well today and the interviewer says what about the ballymore? Nicholls will say his favourite line these days “cheltenham isnt everything”

He's forgotten how to win there

[Altior]

Covering Dysart Dynamo for here as I don't want a repeat of last year with Appreciate It.

[Eggs]

Nice Aintree horse there, Mr Glass

….there have been a few RaB in respect of Mr Glass winning the Challow Hurdle. I have no idea if that is a target.

[Spectre]

Surely Stage Star is of more interest than Mr Glass given he won the second division in a quicker time very easily. Then you have Knappers Hill who has put Stage Star away every time they met in bumpers. KH wasn't great first up, but he still won and probably just needed it.

All three will probably be best over the intermediate trip, and Nicholls will need to split them up. He usually sends his best one the Challow though, so I'd assume that would be Knappers Hill, and Mr Glass would be third choice.

[Bonjers]

I'd see Knappers Hill as more of a Tolworth candidate at this stage. Due for a spin around Wincanton next I understand.

Gelino Bello would be the one I've been most taken with of his crop so far though.

[Cashew King]

Gelino Bello would be the one I've been most taken with of his crop so far though.

I like the horse but Nicholls column suggests this was his minimum distance so would be careful as could well go up in distance(especially as has Knappers/Mr Glass/Stage Star) - could see him going for the 3m novice back at Aintree (they ran Bravemansgame in last year).

Nicholls column (Betfair)

”He is a good looking type who made the perfect start to his career at Plumpton in December before running very well when finishing third in a Listed bumper in February, staying on stoutly. He has always schooled nicely and is one I've been looking forward to running over hurdles. This trip of two and a half miles is the minimum for Gelino Bello who shapes like a strong stayer.”

[Block 205]

I realise that this one will be off the radar for the majority and probably won't even enter most peoples' thinking, but I'd like to put the case for why a small dabble on Nickle Back for this race at the current prices might not be the worst idea at this stage.

This is his form so far, in chronological order:
Dec 2020: P2P, Tattersalls Farm - fell at the second last when disputing the lead with My Mate Mozzie, who won by 8L. From what I can see of the track layout at Tattersalls Farm, two out looks to be no distance at all from the finish so he was obviously giving My Mate Mozzie a very good race, and that one's generally 25/1-20/1 for the Ballymore, and is fancied by a few on here.
Mar 2021: 2m4.5f Hurdle, Southwell - beaten 1.25L getting 12lb from the 138 rated Cadzand. On the face of it this doesn't read massively well, but it was Nickle Back's first run under rules (and first of any kind for over 100 days) and he pulled very hard, Cadzand had already run four times that season (including in the Betfair Hurdle a month beforehand), and the two of them were 34 lengths clear of the 128 rated odds on favourite Only The Bold, whose trainer offered no excuses afterwards.
Oct 2021: 2m3f Hurdle, Fontwell - faced what was undoubtedly a very average field (the only one with an OR was rated 118) but absolutely ran them into the ground, winning by 30L and getting an OR of 136 and RPR of 143 in the process, which is highly impressive for only a second run over hurdles.

Following this he was originally entered for the Ballymore trial on the the Friday of the Cheltenham meeting last week but didn't take up that engagement which was a bit of a shame, and has now been entered in what looks like another pretty average race at Plumpton on Monday. He was quoted for the Ballymore at 40/1-33/1 until the last few days, at which point a couple have put him in at 100/1, which to me seems like a huge price given that he's still completely unexposed, and has already been given the kind of RPR that puts him right up at the top end after just a couple of hurdle runs.

I'm quite prepared for the fact that many will write him off due to unfashionable connections, unfashionable tracks to start off at for a horse that's being put forward as one that could develop into a Festival horse, and also for the fact that he could get beaten by some rag at Plumpton if he takes up that engagement, in which case everyone who wouldn't touch him will have been proved correct. I know that it's a stretch to think that he could give all the big guns a run for their money, but I'm hoping that he might just turn out to be one that's come from the P2P scene that has slipped through the net of the usual suspects that snap up all of the best prospects, and I don't think that the evidence so far suggests that he should be available at three figure prices (I thought that 40/1 was fair and had backed him at that price, but have gone back in at the 100/1).

[Saxon Warrior]

I realise that this one will be off the radar for the majority and probably won't even enter most peoples' thinking, but I'd like to put the case for why a small dabble on Nickle Back for this race at the current prices might not be the worst idea at this stage.

This is his form so far, in chronological order:
Dec 2020: P2P, Tattersalls Farm - fell at the second last when disputing the lead with My Mate Mozzie, who won by 8L. From what I can see of the track layout at Tattersalls Farm, two out looks to be no distance at all from the finish so he was obviously giving My Mate Mozzie a very good race, and that one's generally 25/1-20/1 for the Ballymore, and is fancied by a few on here.
Mar 2021: 2m4.5f Hurdle, Southwell - beaten 1.25L getting 12lb from the 138 rated Cadzand. On the face of it this doesn't read massively well, but it was Nickle Back's first run under rules (and first of any kind for over 100 days) and he pulled very hard, Cadzand had already run four times that season (including in the Betfair Hurdle a month beforehand), and the two of them were 34 lengths clear of the 128 rated odds on favourite Only The Bold, whose trainer offered no excuses afterwards.
Oct 2021: 2m3f Hurdle, Fontwell - faced what was undoubtedly a very average field (the only one with an OR was rated 118) but absolutely ran them into the ground, winning by 30L and getting an OR of 136 and RPR of 143 in the process, which is highly impressive for only a second run over hurdles.

Following this he was originally entered for the Ballymore trial on the the Friday of the Cheltenham meeting last week but didn't take up that engagement which was a bit of a shame, and has now been entered in what looks like another pretty average race at Plumpton on Monday. He was quoted for the Ballymore at 40/1-33/1 until the last few days, at which point a couple have put him in at 100/1, which to me seems like a huge price given that he's still completely unexposed, and has already been given the kind of RPR that puts him right up at the top end after just a couple of hurdle runs.

I'm quite prepared for the fact that many will write him off due to unfashionable connections, unfashionable tracks to start off at for a horse that's being put forward as one that could develop into a Festival horse, and also for the fact that he could get beaten by some rag at Plumpton if he takes up that engagement, in which case everyone who wouldn't touch him will have been proved correct. I know that it's a stretch to think that he could give all the big guns a run for their money, but I'm hoping that he might just turn out to be one that's come from the P2P scene that has slipped through the net of the usual suspects that snap up all of the best prospects, and I don't think that the evidence so far suggests that he should be available at three figure prices (I thought that 40/1 was fair and had backed him at that price, but have gone back in at the 100/1).

He definitely looks like the type to have a bet on, for Monday too, maybe for those looking at finding one to do a Cheltenham Rollup/Double with.

[Saxon Warrior]

He definitely looks like the type to have a bet on, for Monday too, maybe for those looking at finding one to do a Cheltenham Rollup/Double with.

And Nickle Back's jockey through his whip away on the run down to the last flight vs Cadzand, which probably didnt help him.