2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Lbur4288]

Possible but I think TSL is better than a handicapper and as the owners don’t have anything else of note, they may want to take their chance at a proper prize.

I'm of the same view as Lobos, good horses can still be ran in handicaps and if I was an owner with GE and he said picking up a handicap as a short term plan was the best play then I'd go along with that.

[Eggs]

3SL for me going here, was mentioned when I was at the yard over the Autumn Ballymore could be the race for him. I was at Fairyhouse for this debut in November and again the vibes were he could step up in trip. He will run his race at the DRF behind Mighty Potter and SG. Then come here with a great chance IMHO.

….Sky offer 100-1 Win DRF & Bally.

[JackieMoon33]

….Sky offer 100-1 Win DRF & Bally.

Whilst that may seem appealing, if he wins the 2m at DRF then they’d only be sending him to the Supreme.

[JackieMoon33]

I'm of the same view as Lobos, good horses can still be ran in handicaps and if I was an owner with GE and he said picking up a handicap as a short term plan was the best play then I'd go along with that.

I think the novices being lined up for handicaps is over played a bit. When I read through the novice hurdle or Triumph threads, any horse with half a reputation that gets beaten is immediately labelled a handicap plot. Sometimes horses just aren’t as good as we’d like and sometimes, despite being beaten, they’ll still take their chance in the main event. I cover some novices in handicaps where I think they’ve been campaigned in a certain way, but TSL has gone the graded route, is highly thought of, went close in the big race at Xmas and is likely to keep improving. I think he’ll be competitive again at DRF without winning but still be deemed good enough to take his chance in the open races, and that’s where the step up in trip could come into play.

[spotthediff]

Of all Gordon's boat load of best novices imo TSL will be the one he sends down the handicap route.

What rating do you think Three Stripe Life would get (from the British handicapper) at the moment to have this opinion? He has won a maiden hurdle easily and finished 2nd in a G1.

[Istabraq]

I think the novices being lined up for handicaps is over played a bit. When I read through the novice hurdle or Triumph threads, any horse with half a reputation that gets beaten is immediately labelled a handicap plot

Yeah I agree with that and I've been one of those dissenting voices over the years, but to counter your argument for me it's the number of novices who hose up in a handicap then progress to graded level immediately after Cheltenham, it can't be they just show rapid improvement in between March and April, I think it's likely to be deliberate.
All that said it isn't an entirely new thing, I found an old punting ledger of mine a while back and I had a decent few quid on Harchibald to win the 2004 County Hurdle after getting some info, he finished 5th but the following season went on to win the Morgiana, Fighting Fifth, Christmas Hurdle before famously finding a way not to go past Hardy Eustace in the Champion Hurdle.

You mention the Triumph and horses that disappoint become handicap plots, this I think has been made worse since the inception of the Fred Winter which of course is a handicap.

A bit radical maybe but I'd ban first season novices from entering handicaps (bar the Fred Winter of course), force them into the novice events, and develop a programme of age restricted races.

Five and six year olds have dominated the County Hurdle since the 60s, I think there have only been a dozen winners aged 7 or older since 1960...

[JackieMoon33]

What rating do you think Three Stripe Life would get (from the British handicapper) at the moment to have this opinion? He has won a maiden hurdle easily and finished 2nd in a G1.

Top Bandit got 139 so I can’t see TSL getting less than that considering his second at Xmas. Last year GDC got 142 for finishing 6th at DRF and only having a win in France to his name. He ended up very well in off that mark but if you compare to TSL, surely he’d get more than 142?

[Lobos]

What rating do you think Three Stripe Life would get (from the British handicapper) at the moment to have this opinion? He has won a maiden hurdle easily and finished 2nd in a G1.

No idea. I don't mess with Handicaps until the week itself as I play them EW normally in cross doubles involving 2/3 in each race. Bookies only offer 4 places mainly now and targets are complete guess work at this stage. During the week obviously you have guaranteed runners and up to 8 places in some handicaps which is a huge advantage to the punter He's a big price TWAR horse for me as a single so if he goes Handicap or is better than that and goes Graded race I'm on whatever.

[JackieMoon33]

Istabraq I agree that novices have done well over recent years in handicaps but they’ve usually been campaigned in a way to exploit that. I think TSL has been running in merit and will do again at DRF so I don’t think they’re trying to mask anything in his case.

I would also ban novices from handicaps too. It allows the big yards to monopolise the festival even more than they do already. They can plot a lower string novice that in most other yards would be aimed at the top races, just because they have several horses better.

[Lbur4288]

I think the novices being lined up for handicaps is over played a bit. When I read through the novice hurdle or Triumph threads, any horse with half a reputation that gets beaten is immediately labelled a handicap plot. Sometimes horses just aren’t as good as we’d like and sometimes, despite being beaten, they’ll still take their chance in the main event. I cover some novices in handicaps where I think they’ve been campaigned in a certain way, but TSL has gone the graded route, is highly thought of, went close in the big race at Xmas and is likely to keep improving. I think he’ll be competitive again at DRF without winning but still be deemed good enough to take his chance in the open races, and that’s where the step up in trip could come into play.

If you mean overplayed in the sense that not every graded runner/potential horse doesn't go down the handicap route then that's fair enough but I do think it happens every year (not just at Cheltenham). It's trying to find the ones that are hidden that is the problem. That said, I do have an idea in my own mind of where I'd like to see the horses and where I actually think they'd go although with the depth of quality seemingly held in the novice division this year it could prove more difficult than it already is.

I am not ruling TSL out of running in the graded stuff, particularly with the Ballymore looking like it could fall to bits and be a good opportunity for one to pick up the reins. I'm just not convinced it'll be Three Stripe Life.

[SeanRock]

He has to come here now doesn't he ??

He most definitely doesn’t, his best chance is still in the spud race!

[JackieMoon33]

If you mean overplayed in the sense that not every graded runner/potential horse doesn't go down the handicap route then that's fair enough but I do think it happens every year (not just at Cheltenham). It's trying to find the ones that are hidden that is the problem. That said, I do have an idea in my own mind of where I'd like to see the horses and where I actually think they'd go although with the depth of quality seemingly held in the novice division this year it could prove more difficult than it already is.

I am not ruling TSL out of running in the graded stuff, particularly with the Ballymore looking like it could fall to bits and be a good opportunity for one to pick up the reins. I'm just not convinced it'll be Three Stripe Life.

Overplayed in terms of the reactions of novices getting beaten that were previously highlighted. There are probably 20+ horses mentioned for each novice race at some point. When some inevitably get beaten, instead of being assessed as ‘not good enough’ they instead get noted as ‘could be one for the county’. Most of the time that ten length beating is just that and not part of some master plan.

There will of course be some novices that will be campaigned with handicaps in mind and actually run in them, buts is far fewer than what are hoped for when bubbles get burst.

[Lbur4288]

Overplayed in terms of the reactions of novices getting beaten that were previously highlighted. There are probably 20+ horses mentioned for each novice race at some point. When some inevitably get beaten, instead of being assessed as ‘not good enough’ they instead get noted as ‘could be one for the county’. Most of the time that ten length beating is just that and not part of some master plan.

There will of course be some novices that will be campaigned with handicaps in mind and actually run in them, buts is far fewer than what are hoped for when bubbles get burst.

In that case I would be inclined to agree in general. I initially thought the Champion bumper looked a strong race and whilst I don't like to take bumper form too literally, I thought that the race would throw up plenty of decent horses going hurdling - it was when TSL finished 4th I thought he looked useful and could be campaigned with a handicap in mind (Martin Pipe was my thoughts back then). I know we could all probably name several of the beaten novices that have been touted for handicaps on here but TSL is one that could be being considered for that still.

[JackieMoon33]

In that case I would be inclined to agree in general. I initially thought the Champion bumper looked a strong race and whilst I don't like to take bumper form too literally, I thought that the race would throw up plenty of decent horses going hurdling - it was when TSL finished 4th I thought he looked useful and could be campaigned with a handicap in mind (Martin Pipe was my thoughts back then). I know we could all probably name several of the beaten novices that have been touted for handicaps on here but TSL is one that could be being considered for that still.

My view on TSL is that he ran an incredible race in the bumper given the preliminaries, racing keen and the fact he was so inexperienced. I marked his performance up a fair bit with all that in mind. He’s still inexperienced now but I’d be hopeful he’d keep improving and be at least as competitive at DRF as he had been over Xmas. The yard really rate him and I think they feel he’s better than a handicapper. The owners, whilst putting in a fair bit of cash, don’t have the numbers of others and if they’ve got a chance in the better races, I think they’ll pursue it.

[Studfarm254]

I see big Rodney (Hillcresr) is entered for the ballymore trial sat. U’d imagine he’s a great chance of winning that, then will surely have to go for the ballymore at the festival