2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[ComplyOrDie]

Him being a very good staying chaser for the future would seem like an excellent reason not to run in the bartlett just 10 weeks after making his hurdles debut to me

Like Minella Indo (give or take a week or so)?

Also, Allaho, whilst not becoming a proper staying chaser, hasn't become a bad one given how he was campaigned.

[Chris]

I think Hawai game could be one that’s gone under the radar a bit. Bolted up in a French bumper and I was really taken by it’s hurdle debut. Pulled like a maniac most of the way and won very very easily. The horse in 2nd was a point winner and the horse well back in 4th was a 97 rated flat horse who’d already shown fair form over hurdles. Horse clearly has a serious engine, if they can teach it to settle better i think it could be as good as any of the Irish novices we’ve seen so far. Very interested to see where this horse is entered next

For what its worth Hawai Game@33/1 is rated 129 v 135 Guily Billy@66/1 which one is better value?

[ComplyOrDie]

In OJA the middle distance was suggested as his most likely distance. Moreover, I think Mullins and CPS realise they made an error sending Allaho to the AB. That, coupled with his relative inexperience, would suggest to me the Ballymore would be more likely. What would make you think the AB when they AB is typically won by a horse with 4-5 runs?

Did they make an error though? Placed in a RSA (almost won), then won a Ryanair and a John Durkan.

Not as if it ruined him, is it?

[ToniC]

Don’t really get why sending Allaho to the AB was an error fo be honest, sure he may have won the Ballymore that year, but he may not have too and he’s come 3rd in the rsa and won the Ryanair with a breathtaking performance at subsequent festivals so it’s not like it left a mark or anything. The real mistake IMO was not running him in the marsh if we’re talking missed opportunities.

Think the Bartlett is losing its reputation as being one for yaks and is starting to attract classier horses, last 2 renewals yielded subsequent gold cup and RSA winners.

don’t think you need loads of experience if you’re good enough, all the horses that went on to achieve anything after winning the race did so with relatively few runs - monkfish, Indo, bobs worth probably the best 3 to have won it recently and none had more than 3 hurdles runs before.

[Exar Essay]

For what its worth Hawai Game@33/1 is rated 129 v 135 Guily Billy@66/1 which one is better value?

I like them both and included them on my list of interesting ones along with Broomfield Burg a few pages back. But if identifying value were as simple as
ORs it’d be an easy game. Especially early season Novice hurdles where field strength, number of runs etc. vary so much.

[Studfarm254]

For what its worth Hawai Game@33/1 is rated 129 v 135 Guily Billy@66/1 which one is better value?

Guily billy has had 2 hurdles runs and 4 over jumps in total. Was Hawai’s 1st go at jumps and given how green it was, I’d imagine he’ll turn out to be the better horse. Just needs experience. Both interesting shouts at big odds. Ballymore and AB both so open atm as nothing has stuck it’s neck out looking like a superstar just yet

[jack1092]

I like them both and included them on my list of interesting ones along with Broomfield Burg a few pages back. But if identifying value were as simple as
ORs it’d be an easy game. Especially early season Novice hurdles where field strength, number of runs etc. vary so much.

It also ain't ORs....it's RPR ratings Guily Bully's biggest fan is using.

[Our_Duke]

I think Hawai game could be one that’s gone under the radar a bit. Bolted up in a French bumper and I was really taken by it’s hurdle debut. Pulled like a maniac most of the way and won very very easily. The horse in 2nd was a point winner and the horse well back in 4th was a 97 rated flat horse who’d already shown fair form over hurdles. Horse clearly has a serious engine, if they can teach it to settle better i think it could be as good as any of the Irish novices we’ve seen so far. Very interested to see where this horse is entered next

Yeah I liked the performance too and he did very well having pulled like he did - I'd be tempted but remember being a bit put off by a tendancy to jump to the right. Wasn't anything too crazy but enough for me to leave the bet on hold for now.

[billymag]

Why do you think that billymag ?

If he shows a bit of pace id imagine he will be aimed at the Ballymore until hes beaten and they need to step him up, there must be a reasonable chance that he has this one run and goes straight there, I know its a while ago and Willie will of adapted his training techniques over the years but he did this with fiveforthree. Youll know after the his run this week.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Did they make an error though? Placed in a RSA (almost won), then won a Ryanair and a John Durkan.

Not as if it ruined him, is it?

The error I referenced came directly from Ruby Walsh. I think from The Road to Cheltenham. If I recall correctly, he thinks he made a mistake sending Allaho over 3m as a novice hurdler in the AB when he doesn’t quite get the three miles. As for whether the same can be said of CG, who knows?

[ComplyOrDie]

The error I referenced came directly from Ruby Walsh. I think from The Road to Cheltenham. If I recall correctly, he thinks he made a mistake sending Allaho over 3m as a novice hurdler in the AB when he doesn’t quite get the three miles. As for whether the same can be said of CG, who knows?

Your debate was "I think Mullins and CPS realise they made an error sending Allaho to the AB" but now it's Ruby Walsh? I'm a little confused by this. If it's Ruby, which is probably more likely, then this can be taken however you want it to be taken, because Willie is the one that trains him, and it couldn't have been so much of an error that Willie still went down the 3m route at the festival during his novice chase year too.

The main point in the end though is that it didn't ruin Allaho going forward.

I agree with ToniC when he says "Think the Bartlett is losing its reputation as being one for yaks and is starting to attract classier horses, last 2 renewals yielded subsequent gold cup and RSA winners". Classic Getaway could fall in this bracket and follow the path of Allaho, IMO.

FWIW I have Classic Getaway for the Ballymore (a few free bets now) and the Bartlett, he's worth more to me currently in the Ballymore, so if he ended up there I really would not mind at all, I just don't see it myself. 2m4f bumper winner on heavy and now a 2m4f hurdle entry tomorrow, again on heavy, doesn't scream pace, required for a Ballymore, to me. I do expect him to win easily tomorrow. I think the opposition is really poor, and he has a fair weight advantage too.

[Mighty]

Looked all over a proper stayer in his bumper Classic Getaway, would be very surprised if he turned out to be one for this race. Thought grangeclare west would have been one for this race of the 2 but we've not seen him so there's obviously been issues.

Out for the season - suspected pelvic stress fracture: https://twitter.com/TheRacingJosh/st...075097612?s=20

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Your debate was "I think Mullins and CPS realise they made an error sending Allaho to the AB" but now it's Ruby Walsh? I'm a little confused by this. If it's Ruby, which is probably more likely, then this can be taken however you want it to be taken, because Willie is the one that trains him, and it couldn't have been so much of an error that Willie still went down the 3m route at the festival during his novice chase year too.

The main point in the end though is that it didn't ruin Allaho going forward.

I agree with ToniC when he says "Think the Bartlett is losing its reputation as being one for yaks and is starting to attract classier horses, last 2 renewals yielded subsequent gold cup and RSA winners". Classic Getaway could fall in this bracket and follow the path of Allaho, IMO.

FWIW I have Classic Getaway for the Ballymore (a few free bets now) and the Bartlett, he's worth more to me currently in the Ballymore, so if he ended up there I really would not mind at all, I just don't see it myself. 2m4f bumper winner on heavy and now a 2m4f hurdle entry tomorrow, again on heavy, doesn't scream pace, required for a Ballymore, to me. I do expect him to win easily tomorrow. I think the opposition is really poor, and he has a fair weight advantage too.

Yeah, sorry I was being lazy conflating Ruby’s comments with Willie’s. I’m still not convinced Willie sends talented horses whom haven’t proved themselves over 3miles down the the AB route particularly if it comes up heavy. With regards to ruining horses, I think it would only ruin a horse if the horse has a stamina deficit, was embroiled in a real battle or was really unsuited by heavy going or combinations of the above.

[Craigy14]

Yeah, sorry I was being lazy conflating Ruby’s comments with Willie’s. I’m still not convinced Willie sends talented horses whom haven’t proved themselves over 3miles down the the AB route particularly if it comes up heavy. With regards to ruining horses, I think it would only ruin a horse if the horse has a stamina deficit, was embroiled in a real battle or was really unsuited by heavy going or combinations of the above.

I think you have to remember this year will be different to any other for WPM CNC, in that, with the ground issues many many horses have appeared later than normal. Even last year and 19’ the ground was soft enough that many of WPM’s top horses were out end of Nov start of Dec (his usual mo). This year is very different. I don’t think he would mind giving a horse 1 or 2 runs before Cheltenham with the AB in mind for his stayers (Allaho) the case in point.

If I remember rightly end of 18’ was a dry year, so 19’s festival, someone might be able to confirm. Duc Des Gens Arkle year.

[Eggs]

…..Classic Getaway out to 40-1 with 365 after that defeat.