2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Lobos]

The Finishing Line have put up JWM for this. Interesting that they said they had to change the lead horse twice with him because no one could keep up with him.

They have connections with HDB.

Just thought I'd share but there is no precedence of information to make much of this.

This has made my day. Hope they are right. The money for him also suggests the Ballymore may well be the preferred target. His first run though will tell us loads.

[Lobos]

[QUOTE=OverTheLast;n320763]

Without wanting to sound cheeky, they don’t have a f**king clue

[/QUOTE
Cheeky......

[JackieMoon33]

Not for me - I'm firmly in the Gerri Ballymore, JWM Bartlett camp. More so the JWM side at the moment as I'm more invested in him than any other horse at the moment (I think).

The point was more that Gerri is going to start over 2m and is 50/1 for the 2m novice race, so if he wins his maiden comfortably he will shorten from that price so as long as cashout is available it's a reasonably risk free investment to have for those who want to bet that way (i.e. full or above full cashout should become available if they both stay healthy). Furthermore, with Gerri starting over 2m from the stable tour, it's difficult to see him going over 3m later in the season I'd say.

I’ve lost two Bet365 accounts by abusing the cashing out so, whilst it’s a excellent plan, the upside gain versus the risk of losing the concession should be considered.

[ComplyOrDie]

This has made my day. Hope they are right. The money for him also suggests the Ballymore may well be the preferred target. His first run though will tell us loads.

The money for the Ballymore was down to recency bias, because of Bob Olinger, IMO. The exchanges tell us very little too, as the Bartlett market has barely any liquidity. He's a tough one to call, I've backed him in both and will now base my decision on his visual performances.

[Lobos]

The money for the Ballymore was down to recency bias, because of Bob Olinger, IMO. The exchanges tell us very little too, as the Bartlett market has barely any liquidity. He's a tough one to call, I've backed him in both and will now base my decision on his visual performances.

They are all too tough to call which is why any bit of news gets me and everyone else excited. I've also covered him for Albert but am heavy on many doubles on him in Ballymore so that's my preferred route. All 3 Novice Hurdles will be very hard to win this season with the horses at our disposal. Looks like B365 have gone 16's from 20's this morning according to oddschecker which is probably on the back of FL tipping him up.

[BookieBasher]

JWM has been 16/1 with 365 for last few months. Don’t think the finishing line have ever moved a market before

[ComplyOrDie]

They are all too tough to call which is why any bit of news gets me and everyone else excited. I've also covered him for Albert but am heavy on many doubles on him in Ballymore so that's my preferred route. All 3 Novice Hurdles will be very hard to win this season with the horses at our disposal. Looks like B365 have gone 16's from 20's this morning according to oddschecker which is probably on the back of FL tipping him up.

Yeah, I know, but you made it sound like he's had absolute bags come for him, but it's very limited at the moment due to liquidity in the market.

[That Horse]

JWM has been 16/1 with 365 for last few months. Don’t think the finishing line have ever moved a market before

That's definitely the case, I don't trust that oddschecker price history thing, there's been a few times where it's said a price move was recent, as in same day or along similar lines, when I'd been in the specific markets and knew the price was the same for a few weeks beforehand.

If I was the type who wore a tin foil hat, I'd say oddschecker might encourage a few more bets from people who think the price has gone down same day.

JWM has been 16/1 Ballymore on b365 for a while most definitely

[Lobos]

Yeah, I know, but you made it sound like he's had absolute bags come for him, but it's very limited at the moment due to liquidity in the market.

He is way shorter for the Ballymore though. If you take out Sir Gerhard and Jonbon, who imo are more likely to go Supreme, then he's 2nd fav behind Kilcruit. The comparisons to Bollinger are also not far removed from the Comparison you have made between HG and Samcro so it's understandable why he's well talked up. HDB stable tour also gives impression they think a lot of him.

[ComplyOrDie]

He is way shorter for the Ballymore though. If you take out Sir Gerhard and Jonbon, who imo are more likely to go Supreme, then he's 2nd fav behind Kilcruit. The comparisons to Bollinger are also not far removed from the Comparison you have made between HG and Samcro so it's understandable why he's well talked up. HDB stable tour also gives impression they think a lot of him.

Way shorter? Like 4pts, and on the exchanges 0.5pts.

I don't doubt the rest of it Lobos, I think the comparisons can be made too, but recency bias of Bob Olinger winning the Ballymore obviously points the majority of people in that direction before taking anything else into account. It was also the fact you were saying the money has come for the Ballymore, when in reality he's been backed for both. He was bigger for the Bartlett than he is now, doesn't mean he's going there based on that price reduction.

FWIW I don't care which race he ends up in, but the money side of it is likely very irrelevant right now, as he's literally been backed for both since his debut run.

[JackieMoon33]

ComplyOrDie - a very comprehensive analysis and some very good points.

The comparison with Samcro is not something that I'd buy into though as their respective bumper RPRs and winning distances have zero correlation to what trip each horse will perform best at in the future. Also, Samcro was a much sweeter traveller in his bumpers and displayed a turn a foot whereas Hollow Games needs a bit of winding up and has less of an instant change of pace. Before the recent stable tour, all other comments from Elliott and Codd have mentioned Hollow Games as being a stayer and galloper so I'm not going to disregard those completely in favour of the latest quote from Gordon. Lastly, is the eye test and I'm sure most would agree that if you watch Hollow Games' bumper runs, he visually looks like a stayer and does not scream Ballymore. I completely get the breeding angle that you compiled but I've been caught out by that in the past and gone with breeding over visuals and it backfired badly on me.

It's good to have different opinions but as much as I like Hollow Games, I would not be backing him for the Ballymore even if I am wrong and he run's there.

[Lobos]

Best price available...9pts difference

FWIW I do care which race he ends up in as you can probably tell ..............I expect he'll bomb out on his first run now !

[ComplyOrDie]

ComplyOrDie - a very comprehensive analysis and some very good points.

The comparison with Samcro is not something that I'd buy into though as their respective bumper RPRs and winning distances have zero correlation to what trip each horse will perform best at in the future. Also, Samcro was a much sweeter traveller in his bumpers and displayed a turn a foot whereas Hollow Games needs a bit of winding up and has less of an instant change of pace. Before the recent stable tour, all other comments from Elliott and Codd have mentioned Hollow Games as being a stayer and galloper so I'm not going to disregard those completely in favour of the latest quote from Gordon. Lastly, is the eye test and I'm sure most would agree that if you watch Hollow Games' bumper runs, he visually looks like a stayer and does not scream Ballymore. I completely get the breeding angle that you compiled but I've been caught out by that in the past and gone with breeding over visuals and it backfired badly on me.

It's good to have different opinions but as much as I like Hollow Games, I would not be backing him for the Ballymore even if I am wrong and he run's there.

That's fair enough JM. We will just have to wait and see now, where he goes from here. It doesn't necessarily have to be the Ballymore, he may just not be that level, but I'll be surprised if he goes out to 3m, which was my inital statement

[ComplyOrDie]

Best price available...9pts difference

FWIW I do care which race he ends up in as you can probably tell ..............I expect he'll bomb out on his first run now !

Haha fair enough mate, I wish you the best with them

[Saxon Warrior]

He is way shorter for the Ballymore though. If you take out Sir Gerhard and Jonbon, who imo are more likely to go Supreme, then he's 2nd fav behind Kilcruit. The comparisons to Bollinger are also not far removed from the Comparison you have made between HG and Samcro so it's understandable why he's well talked up. HDB stable tour also gives impression they think a lot of him.

Its a good back up for any Bartlett bets on JWM to have him in the Ballymore
(if you are happy to take a position on more than one race with a horse, of course).

After all HdB's Stable Tour mention, said he suspects that he will start him at 2M4F.
Which could give him options after he sees how he takes to that trip.