2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Winging The Last]

Classic getaway, dysart Dynamo and JWM entered in the 2m4 maiden in navan. No sir Gerhard.

You wouldn't expect him to start off over 2.4 with him being aimed at either the Supreme or Ballymore.

Maybe though DD could go to the AB now

[Winging The Last]

Three Stripe life entered in the Grade 2 over 2.4 at Navan on Saturday

[ToniC]

You wouldn't expect him to start off over 2.4 with him being aimed at either the Supreme or Ballymore.

Maybe though DD could go to the AB now

No not normally but thought they might have been desperate to try and get a run in, would be surprised if kilcruit & sir g faced off against each other in a maiden hurdle! Ridiculously excited after seeing this weekends entries in any case, what an absolute treat if we get them all or a significant number of them declared. Will be back asking for directions to the nearest bridge Sunday evening when they’ve all been beaten…

[Winging The Last]

No not normally but thought they might have been desperate to try and get a run in, would be surprised if kilcruit & sir g faced off against each other in a maiden hurdle! Ridiculously excited after seeing this weekends entries in any case, what an absolute treat if we get them all or a significant number of them declared. Will be back asking for directions to the nearest bridge Sunday evening when they’ve all been beaten…

Agree I think this weekend could be one of the best weekends all season for the number of top horses running. It's like Christmas come early

Kilcruit
Sir Gerhard
Appreciate It
Ferny Hollow
Classic Getaway
Dysart Dynamo
JWM
Three Stripe Life
Galopin Des Champs
Gars Des Sceaux
Concertista

And thats just in the novice races without mentioning the Hilly Way or John Durkan. And i've probably missed a few obvious ones as well

[ComplyOrDie]

Fantastic to finally see Willie's horses get some entries. Bit of a confidence booster for a lot of us I'm sure. Will be interesting to see what is declared and where!

[Lobos]

Why did people cash out Dysart?? Was something said?

[ToniC]

Agree I think this weekend could be one of the best weekends all season for the number of top horses running. It's like Christmas come early

Kilcruit
Sir Gerhard
Appreciate It
Ferny Hollow
Classic Getaway
Dysart Dynamo
JWM
Three Stripe Life
Galopin Des Champs
Gars Des Sceaux
Concertista

And thats just in the novice races without mentioning the Hilly Way or John Durkan. And i've probably missed a few obvious ones as well

Plenty of rain about today too & forecast enough for the rest of the week as well. I know they’ve got to be declared (& get in in some cases) but I can’t wait for this weekend now

[Winging The Last]

Why did people cash out Dysart?? Was something said?

Paddy was playing their bluff

[Lobos]

Paddy was playing their bluff

Bastards. Obviously needed the money !

[jswinburne1]

Anyone heard anything re Gerri Colombe?

[Irish Rugby]

I think people were cashing out on DD because he wasn't in the entries for the xmas Grade 1s. That surprised me as he's never jumped a hurdle in public, so why would Mullins pitch him in in top flight company, to start with? Give him experience and let him loose hopefully for the Ballymore, after 2/3 runs. Plenty of time to do so, if that's the plan.

[Stormez]

I think people were cashing out on DD because he wasn't in the entries for the xmas Grade 1s. That surprised me as he's never jumped a hurdle in public, so why would Mullins pitch him in in top flight company, to start with? Give him experience and let him loose hopefully for the Ballymore, after 2/3 runs. Plenty of time to do so, if that's the plan.

That combined with PP/Betfair removing him from their markets.

[ComplyOrDie]

I think people were cashing out on DD because he wasn't in the entries for the xmas Grade 1s. That surprised me as he's never jumped a hurdle in public, so why would Mullins pitch him in in top flight company, to start with? Give him experience and let him loose hopefully for the Ballymore, after 2/3 runs. Plenty of time to do so, if that's the plan.

The point made was that Willie block enters absolutely everything regardless of experience, plenty of horses entered over Xmas with zero hurdling experience, and it was odd that he wasn't entered up.

However, the early comparisons made between Dysart Dynamo & Yorkhill with regards to the Punchestown bumper have me thinking he may go that route, and as it so happens he is entered up over 2m 4f first time (also has a 2m entry), a bit like Yorkhill was. Yorkhill then went onto the Tolworth, so I wouldn't be surprised if DD has an entry for that also.

[ToniC]

I had always assumed the ballot process for maiden hurdles was completely random, however looks like I’m wrong in that regard? If I’m interpreting this correctly, looks like kilcruit and sir G as winners at graded level shouldn’t have to worry about not making the cut for the maiden hurdle in cork.

https://www.hri-ras.ie/uploadedFiles...mary.pdf?v=1.0

[ComplyOrDie]

Just been doing a bit more digging with regards to Willie Mullins for this race, especially as it has been dominated by Kilcruit & Sir Gerhard at the top of the market for a fair while now, not to mention he has 4 of the top 7 in the betting currently.

Some notes I've made for the race, that I thought I'd share, are as follows:

• Willie Mullins has won the race 4 times (Fiveforthree 2008, Mikael d'Haguenet 2009, Faugheen 2014 & Yorkhill 2016)
• Willie Mullins has won the race once with a horse (Fiveforthree) from the Champion Bumper (finished 5th in the 2007 Champion Bumper) - Kilcruit/Sir Gerhard
• Willie Mullins has tended not to run his better horses from the Champion Bumper in the Ballymore the following season, and when he has tried the majority are well beat - Kilcruit/Sir Gerhard
• Willie Mullins best finishing position in the past 10 seasons with a horse from the Champion Bumper was Next Destination who managed 3rd in the race (4th in the previous years Champion Bumper) - Again, as above, overall statistics for him in the race with horses from the Champion Bumper are not in favour of this particular route
• Willie Mullins last two winners of the Ballymore started their hurdle careers over 2m4f+ - Possible negative seeing both Kilcruit/Sir Gerhard entered over 2m first time up, positives for Classic Getaway/Dysart Dynamo both with that 2m4f entry this coming weekend.
• A bit like the race stats suggest, the Ballymore doesn't tend to favour 7 year olds, Willie Mullins winners were aged 6-6-5-6 - Kilcruit/Sir Gerhard
• No winner of the Ballymore for Willie Mullins ran in a bumper beyond 2m 2f the previous season - Classic Getaway
• Willie Mullins' 4 winners of the Ballymore have come from the following routes as younger horses - 2 x p2p, 1 x NHF, 1 x French Hurdle/Chasing - A mixed bag here, recency bias would send us toward p2p's, so a plus for Sir Gerhard/Classic Getaway but he's had winners from other sources. Neither p2p winner of the Ballymore ran in the Champion Bumper the season before though - Sir Gerhard

These are just some brief notes I made, obviously a whole lot more to it than just this, not to mention the obvious fact that Willie won't give a heap about some stats I stick up on here, however trainers are generally creatures of habit, they don't usually go off on a different tangent, so some of these points may well stick come race day.

From the notes I've made I would say there are a fair few negatives for both Kilcruit/Sir Gerhard for this race currently.

The crux of Sir Gerhard is that he was a late arrival to Willie, and his previous trainer, Gordon Elliott, has used the Champion Bumper to then head to the Ballymore (successful with Envoi Allen), so it may still be the route he takes, but isn't one Willie would ordinarily take. May depend IF the owners have a say so?!?