2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[opatcho]

We need a thread for this lol

[jono]

Honeysuckle
Allaho
Sir Gerhard
Shishkin
Facile Vega

The 3 above Shishkin arguably may not be as good as him, but he has 2 rivals rated (for now) extremely close. Unlike the others.
For me FV just can't be anywhere but last given it's a bumper and the first 4 in the market are all yet to face eachother.

[Faugheen_Machine]

We need a thread for this lol

Need to find a mod who isn't on the gin (or rum in Kev's case).

[Dandrew99]

Just seen an interesting post on twitter, haven't fact checked it but assume it's true.

For the Deloitte/Chanelle Pharma/Tattersall's race, Willie Mullins best finisher in race and where they went at Cheltenham for the past 10 years:

Supreme Champagne Fever - Won
Vautaur - Won
Klassical Dream - Won
Asterion Forlonge - 4th
Appreciate It - Won

Ballymore
Sous Les Cieux - 5th
Nichols Canyon - 3rd
Bacardys - PU
Duc Des Genievres - 5th

Bartlett
Blue Et Rouge - F

[jono]

No doubt the stat / trend of Mullins Deloitte / DRF 2 miler race will be used against Sir Gerhard over the next few days.
In that:

Those that ran and went into the Supreme:

Appreciate it - Won > Won Supreme
Asterion Forlonge - Won > 4th Supreme
Klassical Dream - Won > Won Supreme
Vautour - Won > Won Supreme
Champagne Fever - Won > Won Supreme


Those that ran and went up in trip to the Ballymore

Duc de Genievres - 2nd - 5th in Ballymore
Bacardys - 1st - PU in Ballymore
Nichols Caynon - 1st - 3rd in Ballymore
Sous les Cieux - 2nd - 5th in Ballymore

Bacardys was badly hampered and basically taken out of the race. He then followed up at Punchestown over 2m4.
Nichols Canyon came 3rd, but was giving a poor ride by Walsh dropping him in. Once they went back to more positive tactics he won both 2m4 races at Aintree and Punchestown.
Duc de Genievres...Samcro won the Ballymore, stepping up from the 2 miles at Leopardstown.

Most of the Supreme winners above would have won their respective Ballymores imo (Faugheen would have been moved for Vautour)

If Mullins had of found a 2m4 maiden or weak grade 3 hurdle for Sir Gerhard during the Winter,..
It wouldn't have really proved anything.
But it would have given him a on the trends.
Which is why most of the time I don't bother with them.

I'd go as far to say that this years Ballymore isn't that far off last years Supreme.
One very good horse, with not a whole lot behind (like I said earlier some of them I like but not at the trip)
And just going to be a straight forward outcome

[jono]

Just seen an interesting post on twitter, haven't fact checked it but assume it's true.
.....

I saw that too. See my response 2 minutes after

[ComplyOrDie]

I'd go as far to say that this years Ballymore isn't that far off last years Supreme.
One very good horse, with not a whole lot behind (like I said earlier some of them I like but not at the trip)

I'd go as far to say it's just a poor looking renewal, even with Sir Gerhard present.

I was dead against Journey With Me for this race, but in all honesty it wouldn't surprise me if he won it.

It's between Sir G & JWM for me now, but I won't be getting excited about the form of the race going forward.

[Dandrew99]

I saw that too. See my response 2 minutes after

Your write up was better to be fair so I'll let you have it

[Stormez]

So how many are we expecting to line up here now? Over/under 7.5?

[isitmarchyet]

So how many are we expecting to line up here now? Over/under 7.5?

Sir Gerhard
Journey With Me
Stage Star
Three Stripe Life
I Am Maximus
Whatdeawant

Think those are the ones I'd be most certain of. Few others at big prices I'm not sure of. Starting to wish I'd kept that 50-1 on I Am Maximus, though the Coral Cup is still an option.

[Guinness Village]

So how many are we expecting to line up here now? Over/under 7.5?

Price if a pint of Guinness I reckon

[Kevloaf]

So how many are we expecting to line up here now? Over/under 7.5?

Max 8 that I can see.... so good spread

[Carnage at Taunton]

The point is - he looks miles better than any of the others so the trip wouldn't matter.

He's the only horse with the class to potentially win open races over the shorter and mid trips.

Too much shit talked about trips.
You should know that as a fan of Honeysuckle.
She'd win the stayers if she ran in that.

I agree that the trip will be fine for SG. I think most novices can do both the Supreme and Ballymore trips.
If i were thinking of taking odds on for him(i'm not) its his jumping last time out that would concern me a tad.
I have Whatdeawant and I am Max against him antepost,and will add Stage Star to them two.
Although i did notice that Whatdeawant is still in the AB, which actually i think would be better race for him.

[ToniC]

I think JWM has to make it and go hard from the tape dropping, try and get sir Gerhard off the bridle early, if he’s to have a chance. Shit or bust strategy but in a typically run Ballymore he’d have no chance.

[Lobos]

I think JWM has to make it and go hard from the tape dropping, try and get sir Gerhard off the bridle early, if he’s to have a chance. Shit or bust strategy but in a typically run Ballymore he’d have no chance.

This isn't a typical Ballymore though. Weak as *!#!