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2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

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  • Originally posted by ZappBrannigan View Post

    Interesting

    Two weeks out, this type of "will he - won't he" stuff is starting to wreck my head. Connections just need to call it! Come on lads

    Anyway, I'm sticking with Ginto , a tough horse, should make the frame as a minimum - this ground conditions comment is confusing ? Looking at his record in various conditions he seems consistent regardless, or am I missing something?


    Softer going would mean a tougher test of stamina and as such connections may lean towards the shorter race.

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    • Originally posted by CueCard View Post

      Softer going would mean a tougher test of stamina and as such connections may lean towards the shorter race.
      A fair point but given his race record is this really a major factor?

      I mean horses can only run on the ground on the day of the race - Ginto has won on all kinds of ground but yet that now seems to be the deciding factor?

      It is almost like the going is a non issue until we get to Cheltenham

      I heard similar stuff with discussions on Constitution Hill in the Supreme - because he won his last race in heavy going everyone seemed to say he needs it, but if it hadn't been raining that day he may well have won anyway (because he is very, very good) and everyone would have said "he might not handle heavy etc"

      Ginto seems to handle many surfaces in his record so, rather than wait for the weather, I reckon the connections should just call it

      Just my two cents...

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      • Originally posted by ZappBrannigan View Post


        It is almost like the going is a non issue until we get to Cheltenham

        Good point that…

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        • Originally posted by ZappBrannigan View Post

          A fair point but given his race record is this really a major factor?

          I mean horses can only run on the ground on the day of the race - Ginto has won on all kinds of ground but yet that now seems to be the deciding factor?

          It is almost like the going is a non issue until we get to Cheltenham

          I heard similar stuff with discussions on Constitution Hill in the Supreme - because he won his last race in heavy going everyone seemed to say he needs it, but if it hadn't been raining that day he may well have won anyway (because he is very, very good) and everyone would have said "he might not handle heavy etc"

          Ginto seems to handle many surfaces in his record so, rather than wait for the weather, I reckon the connections should just call it

          Just my two cents...
          A lot of the ground talk is complete nonsense but it can make a big difference at Cheltenham more than anywhere because the margins are so much smaller.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

            Good point that…
            I’d be amazed if it factored anywhere near as much as some would have you think. Just gives them an out from nailing their colours to the mast. Unless it’s like a road, or hock deep, does it really matter?

            And how confident can you be making a ground-based decision at 48 hour declarations with a track that drains like cheltenham does

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            • Beating one or two decent horses on Ground that doesn't particularly suit is doable. Beating multiple very good horses on Ground that doesn't particularly suit is less likely.

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              • Doubt he’s anybodies main dart here but I know some have nice prices with potentially nice cashout… looks like walking on air may have gone same way as energumene

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                • Is that confirmed for certain Toni? Not seen anything about him - is it a drift on the exchange?

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                  • Originally posted by Mighty View Post
                    Is that confirmed for certain Toni? Not seen anything about him - is it a drift on the exchange?
                    out from ~15.0 to 49.0 last matched. Wouldn’t want to tell anybody what to do, but thought it best to make people aware in a timely manner given how quick the cash out firms have been recently so they can make their owns minds up

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                    • Thanks Toni. Managed to cash. Didn’t really fancy and don’t like the drift so will take the profit.

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                      • Originally posted by ToniC View Post
                        Doubt he’s anybodies main dart here but I know some have nice prices with potentially nice cashout… looks like walking on air may have gone same way as energumene
                        Someone on Twitter says Nicky has confirmed this at the wetherby’s preview night.

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                        • Not there so no official confirmation from me but I believe Nicky confirmed it at the Weatherbys Preview tonight.

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                          • Thanks both - have managed to cash for profit.

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                            • Just cashed mine out too for a nice profit, cheers folks

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                              • I saw the below quote from Willie Mullins in the at the races stable tour,

                                "El Fabiolo was very impressive at Tramore, which is our trial track for Cheltenham! I think the form has worked out well too. He got a little cut prior to the Dublin Racing Festival, so we withdrew him. I think his form stacks up and he could run at Cheltenham. You’d probably automatically say he’s a Supreme Novices' horse, but maybe we could change and ride him differently in the Ballymore. He’s got plenty of speed. If Paul is happy that he can settle him, that will be the key, then we could go for the Ballymore, but we’ll see."

                                He's available at 80/1 for the Ballymore with bet365 in the antepost market, does anyone have anything more concrete on where he might turn up?

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