2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[charlie]

Agree with this point and I think last years results are creating a huge bias in some people's thinking for this years festival.

I really don't understand how some people say Stage Star wont get up the hill, but also think JWM will win the Ballymore. The main reason why anyone would think JWM would win the Ballymore is because he wears Robcour colours, has Rachael as his jockey and is trained by HDB. This is not Bob Olinger, he ran last year.

If you look at the horses in this race and what they have achieved both in race status, collateral form and on the clock, Stage Star is right in there with a chance. We don't know when the power might shift but I feel that ruling English horses out just because they are trained in England is not the right way to go about it.

The bias point is complete rubbish because you've applied no context and context is key.

Between 1975 - 2004 the Irish never surpassed 7 winners and averaged 3.7 per year. Since 2004 they've average 11.8 winners, with a clear and steady gradual climb over the last 10, culminating in 23 winners last year. This was not out of blue nor was it a surprise. Down playing this dominance, or calling it recency bias is IMO a fast way to the ante post poor house. Things will eventually change and it's up to us as punters to adapt and change when they do, but why on earth would anyone have large a number of ante post dockets on British trained runners in the face of these numbers? Outside of handicaps, 3 Irish trainers win over 50% of all races over the last 8 years, and the Irish won won 82% of races despite only fielding 40% of festival runners.

Re Stage Star, the above is not the sole reason I am not backing him, but it is a reason and a legitimate one to boot. He's a low 140's rated hurdler with what I think is rubbish form. The Irish novice hurdle trials tend to be deeper and more competitive than here, which IMO produces novices that have more better experience to handle the demands of a festival. People can agree or disagree with this point, but thats born out in the numbers as the Irish have have won 7 of the last 8 runnings of this. Challow winners have a terrible record at the festival, Paul Nicholls has a terrible record in the race and has aimed much better ones than SS - I just don't think he'll win.

I could of course be wrong and thats fine, but, history tells me I'm going to be right way more often than I'm wrong, so I'm happy running that risk based on what I know now.

[spotthediff]

The bias point is complete rubbish because you've applied no context and context is key.

Between 1975 - 2004 the Irish never surpassed 7 winners and averaged 3.7 per year. Since 2004 they've average 11.8 winners, with a clear and steady gradual climb over the last 10, culminating in 23 winners last year. This was not out of blue nor was it a surprise. Down playing this dominance, or calling it recency bias is IMO a fast way to the ante post poor house. Things will eventually change and it's up to us as punters to adapt and change when they do, but why on earth would anyone have large a number of ante post dockets on British trained runners in the face of these numbers? Outside of handicaps, 3 Irish trainers win over 50% of all races over the last 8 years, and the Irish won won 82% of races despite only fielding 40% of festival runners.

Re Stage Star, the above is not the sole reason I am not backing him, but it is a reason and a legitimate one to boot. He's a low 140's rated hurdler with what I think is rubbish form. The Irish novice hurdle trials tend to be deeper and more competitive than here, which IMO produces novices that have more better experience to handle the demands of a festival. People can agree or disagree with this point, but thats born out in the numbers as the Irish have have won 7 of the last 8 runnings of this. Challow winners have a terrible record at the festival, Paul Nicholls has a terrible record in the race and has aimed much better ones than SS - I just don't think he'll win.

I could of course be wrong and thats fine, but, history tells me I'm going to be right way more often than I'm wrong, so I'm happy running that risk based on what I know now.

Some great stats there.

I just don't think that horses should be ruled out for superficial reasons and I think this is happening because certain horses are not trained by Mullins, Elliot or HDB. Stage Star won a race that has a poor record of converting into festival winners, there is no disputing that. Of the last 8 winners, only 4 have gone on to contest the Ballymore. All have finished in the top 3 in the Ballymore. That doesn't make me think that this has no chance because he has won a Grade 1 around Newbury. Should we rule out any horse that has won at Newbury?

Journey With Me has won a novice hurdle and a maiden hurdle and the horses Ginto beat last time have hardly franked the form. Other than Sir Gerhard, I don't see anything spectacular coming over from Ireland for this, not in the Bob Olinger mould anyway.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Nicholls was on ATR Lunchtime today saying Stage Star goes straight to the ballymore and looking forward to running him

Good to see he could well be running in this.
Hes been winning his races pretty comfortably and be interesting to find out how good he is come the day.
I shall pay to find out.

[charlie]

Some great stats there.

I just don't think that horses should be ruled out for superficial reasons and I think this is happening because certain horses are not trained by Mullins, Elliot or HDB. Stage Star won a race that has a poor record of converting into festival winners, there is no disputing that. Of the last 8 winners, only 4 have gone on to contest the Ballymore. All have finished in the top 3 in the Ballymore. That doesn't make me think that this has no chance because he has won a Grade 1 around Newbury. Should we rule out any horse that has won at Newbury?

Journey With Me has won a novice hurdle and a maiden hurdle and the horses Ginto beat last time have hardly franked the form. Other than Sir Gerhard, I don't see anything spectacular coming over from Ireland for this, not in the Bob Olinger mould anyway.

For those not making a book we have to find reasons not to back the vast majority of horses in a race. I've given you 5 reasons re Stage Star, none of which are superficial.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Some great stats there.

I just don't think that horses should be ruled out for superficial reasons and I think this is happening because certain horses are not trained by Mullins, Elliot or HDB. Stage Star won a race that has a poor record of converting into festival winners, there is no disputing that. Of the last 8 winners, only 4 have gone on to contest the Ballymore. All have finished in the top 3 in the Ballymore. That doesn't make me think that this has no chance because he has won a Grade 1 around Newbury. Should we rule out any horse that has won at Newbury?

Journey With Me has won a novice hurdle and a maiden hurdle and the horses Ginto beat last time have hardly franked the form. Other than Sir Gerhard, I don't see anything spectacular coming over from Ireland for this, not in the Bob Olinger mould anyway.

Yeah I’ve said as much myself re Ginto, HG and co, and will
look elsewhere for this and the AB.
The horses SS has beaten are not Ballymore standard,but that don’t mean SS ain’t!! He’s won his races well and no telling what will be needed to win this.
I do suspect that if SG or DD turn up here though, he will need to be good!!

[Ray]

Mullins de brom and elliot clear up in the grade 1s and the english dont..thats not superficial..that cold facts

[Carnage at Taunton]

Mullins de brom and elliot clear up in the grade 1s and the english dont..thats not superficial..that cold facts

Don’t mean they will this year

[Ray]

Don’t mean they will this year

They probably will though

[ToniC]

They probably will though

Yep… akin to saying just cos Man City won last weekend, doesn’t mean to say they will this weekend. Whilst technically true of course, you have to factor in that they are Man City…

[Fouroverthrutwo]

A perfect example of bullshit that is fed to owners, especially groups like this. Just managing expectations, but throwing in bullshit to help it along.

The world's full of it Q. I posted to make people aware of the potential he doesn't go and to at least bear this in mind.

[FinalFurlong91]

Don’t mean they will this year

they will lets be honest

Especially willie

And Gordon will win 2 handicaps at least

the UK winning more than 10 races would be akin to Leicester winning the league (no i won't lay you 5000-1 it was a bit of hyperbole)

[Kevloaf]

UK to have more winners this year than last year though, surely?

Supreme,
Arkle
Ultima,

Could easily win the first 3 races.... favs in each at the moment...

[charlie]

UK to have more winners this year than last year though, surely?

Supreme,
Arkle
Ultima,

Could easily win the first 3 races.... favs in each at the moment...

Close your eyes Q but it feels like poll time to me

[Kevloaf]

Hoping they do, then it goes even money Ireland to win the Prestbury Cup and we go alllllllllllllllll iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiin

[Ray]

If that bet ever touched evens..its a mortgage job