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Either JWM is showing something totally different at home to what we have seen, or it's just the wrong call to my eye. I guess we will find out in a week or so now...
What have you seen that I haven't?! I don't understand how anyone can be dogmatic about his best trip at this stage, considering he's only ever run twice! Once on debut over 2m2f and once over 2m4f, where we would have probably been beaten by Minella Crooner in another furlong or two. That run certainly didn't scream a horse that needed stepping up to my eyes.
There is every chance he will be better over 3m, but its far from certain.
My point was more that just being his best shot to win the Ballymore doesn't mean he should run there. Honeysuckle would be his best shot to win the Mares Hurdle, but she shouldn't run there either.
Either JWM is showing something totally different at home to what we have seen, or it's just the wrong call to my eye. I guess we will find out in a week or so now...
I don't think we disagree but I think your first point is irrelevant, never would it make sense to run the reigning champion and best 2m hurdler in training in an inferior race as preference to defending her crown.
I can completely run with the scenario that JWM is showing plenty at home, this is one of the issues we (as punters) face when horses rarely see a racecourse but his weakness in the Albert Bartlett market in the last week or two is telling and he now sits very prominent in the Ballymore betting.
Right now you and me have only seen him in an 18f bumper and a 20f maiden hurdle, we both think he would improve for the step up to 3m, we could both still be right.
I'm not saying trainers always get it right and in HDB we have a trainer who kept Sizing John at 2m for four seasons before he was switched to Jessie who duly won a Gold Cup with him, so they can get it wrong, I guess what I'm saying is that I can't disagree with him vehemently and (assuming the decision has been made) from a punting perspective I have to make my choice, and I repeat, JWM to the Ballymore doesn't help me at all.
I have covered him in the Ballymore but if I'm honest I can't make any sense of the race at the moment, I would be having a decent get Sir Gerhard if he were to come here but he seems Supreme bound, so I'm still none the wiser...
What have you seen that I haven't?! I don't understand how anyone can be dogmatic about his best trip at this stage, considering he's only ever run twice! Once on debut over 2m2f and once over 2m4f, where we would have probably been beaten by Minella Crooner in another furlong or two. That run certainly didn't scream a horse that needed stepping up to my eyes.
There is every chance he will be better over 3m, but its far from certain.
I did caveat it with the fact that it was just to my eye if I'm wrong I'm wrong, but that's the game we're in isn't it?
In my opinion, it was 2m2f in very heavy ground where he looked every inch a stayer, and 2m4f where Minella Crooner showed his lack of pace towards the end of the race leads me to think that the Ballymore isn't the race for him.
I did caveat it with the fact that it was just to my eye if I'm wrong I'm wrong, but that's the game we're in isn't it?
In my opinion, it was 2m2f in very heavy ground where he looked every inch a stayer, and 2m4f where Minella Crooner showed his lack of pace towards the end of the race leads me to think that the Ballymore isn't the race for him.
I don't think we disagree but I think your first point is irrelevant, never would it make sense to run the reigning champion and best 2m hurdler in training in an inferior race as preference to defending her crown.
I can completely run with the scenario that JWM is showing plenty at home, this is one of the issues we (as punters) face when horses rarely see a racecourse but his weakness in the Albert Bartlett market in the last week or two is telling and he now sits very prominent in the Ballymore betting.
Right now you and me have only seen him in an 18f bumper and a 20f maiden hurdle, we both think he would improve for the step up to 3m, we could both still be right.
I'm not saying trainers always get it right and in HDB we have a trainer who kept Sizing John at 2m for four seasons before he was switched to Jessie who duly won a Gold Cup with him, so they can get it wrong, I guess what I'm saying is that I can't disagree with him vehemently and (assuming the decision has been made) from a punting perspective I have to make my choice, and I repeat, JWM to the Ballymore doesn't help me at all.
I have covered him in the Ballymore but if I'm honest I can't make any sense of the race at the moment, I would be having a decent get Sir Gerhard if he were to come here but he seems Supreme bound, so I'm still none the wiser...
Granted, I used an extreme example. But the point was that just being HDBs best dart for the Ballymore doesn't mean he should run there.
Very good point with Sizing John. He also persisted with A Plus Tard over the shorter/middle trips for ages before finally stepping him up. Maybe he's just a trainer who is reluctant to step his best horses up in trip.
Also right that for now I guess we just have to assume that JWM is showing plenty at home to make HDB think he's got the ability to win the Ballymore, especially given connections have always seemed to be leaning towards the Bartlett.
My point was more that just being his best shot to win the Ballymore doesn't mean he should run there. Honeysuckle would be his best shot to win the Mares Hurdle, but she shouldn't run there either.
Either JWM is showing something totally different at home to what we have seen, or it's just the wrong call to my eye. I guess we will find out in a week or so now...
I've been having a little side thought, I can't find the exact number online anywhere but I seem to recall this being a fairly valuable race that JWM is going for. Assuming that is true (if it's not, please ignore everything from this point forward...), there are going to be some good horses up against him. Which leads me to think, Willie will almost definitely send something here. Of the Mullins horses entered in the Ballymore who are worth considering:
Running this weekend:
Sir Gerhard
El Fabiolo
Whatdeawant
Bronn
Minella Cocooner
Only just ran:
Kilcruit
The Nice Guy
State Man
Classic Getaway
Allegorie De Vassy
I believe that only leaves Henn See and Dysart Dynamo who could go here. You can guess which one I'm interested in.
He's been off a month now so he should be good to go, and gives another month to Cheltenham. Would be a perfect step up in trip should the Ballymore be an option, plus would give him more hurdling experience which I think would do him good. I know it's been said that he might go straight to Cheltenham, which of course might still be the case, but is it possible this has been the plan all along?
Long story short, DD comes here, absolutely smashes up JWM, Dysart Dynamo wins the Ballymore and JWM wins the Bartlett.
I might be wrong here and stand to be corrected, but I don’t think Dysart Dynamo qualifies for the ‘auction novice hurdle’ as its is for horses that;
Horse must be by an EBF Registered stallion and bought as an unraced 3/4yo at a recognised NH store sale for €45,000 or less
Listening to a sporting life podcast this morning they said JWM failed the vet inspection (Breathing issue) at the sales so went for ‘cheap’. Off memory I think they said he was sold for around 40k.
I think Dysart Dynamo was breed by the owners - Eleanor Manning. According to RP.
This probably also reflects the weaker field he could face in Naas.
I might be wrong here and stand to be corrected, but I don’t think Dysart Dynamo qualifies for the ‘auction novice hurdle’ as its is for horses that;
Horse must be by an EBF Registered stallion and bought as an unraced 3/4yo at a recognised NH store sale for €45,000 or less
Listening to a sporting life podcast this morning they said JWM failed the vet inspection (Breathing issue) at the sales so went for ‘cheap’. Off memory I think they said he was sold for around 40k.
I think Dysart Dynamo was breed by the owners - Eleanor Manning. According to RP.
This probably also reflects the weaker field he could face in Naas.
Yep you're right, Odin corrected me in PM a few minutes ago Theory has been officially dismantled.
Didn't know JWM was sold for less than 45k, so it being a conditions race didn't even cross my mind. Absolute bargain!
See Whatdeawant withdrawn from tomorrow...anyone seen reasons?
I’ve heard *rumours* that he’s injured. No idea if true or not, or extent of injury if so. Just something somebody put on WhatsApp. Not very helpful I know but thought I’d share. Could be something as simple as a stone bruise so please nobody be rushing to cashout on the back of it
Just having a look at JWM form, he has beaten a stable companion called Amirite by 11L. Then Amirite is beaten 17L by Daily present. If Minella Crooner is well beaten tomorrow then JWM form line is suspect .I get the impression that Gordon rates Hollow Games much higher than Minella Crooner if that's the case and Hollow Games wins tomorrow then surely Gordon will send Ginto here, If not then Ginto wins the Bartlett.
Just having a look at JWM form, he has beaten a stable companion called Amirite by 11L. Then Amirite is beaten 17L by Daily present. If Minella Crooner is well beaten tomorrow then JWM form line is suspect.
Or
He beat Minella Crooner that won by 11 lengths next time up and he beat Kilcruit who won by 21 lengths next time out.
Very easy to take a bigger positive than negative in his form IMO.
Grand Jury being well supported. I think we're in for a proper market shake up in the next hour. If, and I appreciate it's a big if, Grand Jury wins and beats Hollow Games in a similar fashion to Ginto, then I think he'll almost certainly rubber stamp his ticket for this. I haven't backed him today, but I think the Hills 33/1 to win today and at Cheltenham is a good bet.
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if I'm wrong I'm wrong, but that's the game we're in isn't it?
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